In the face of stubbornly low crude prices, it's starting to look like the end of the road in the O&G space. As WSJ reports, all of the proverbial fat that can be trimmed has already been trimmed in terms of layoffs and capex. This means further cost savings will have to come from salary cuts because going forward, cutting jobs altogether would imperil companies’ ability to operate.
Wwith oil volatility surging in recent months, oil producers needed to take advantage of a rally, technical or otherwise, and an oil vol lull to reestablish hedges, even if it meant at far lower prices than recent benchmarks. This is precisely what happened in the past week following one of the most torrid surges in the price of oil seen in recent years.
Perhaps we've been doing it wrong all these years. Capitalism isn't about making money. It's about who can blow through money the fastest. When it comes to increasing shareholder value, there is, quite simply, no better way to do it.
Though emerging economies’ debts seem largely moderate by historic standards, it seems likely that they are being underestimated, perhaps by a large margin. If so, the magnitude of the ongoing reversal in capital flows that emerging economies are experiencing may be larger than is generally believed – potentially large enough to trigger a crisis. In this context, keeping track of opaque and evolving financial linkages is more important than ever.
The cyclical fallout from the Great Financial Crisis and the secular deflationary “D’s” of excess Debt, tech Disruption, aging Demographics have been the major catalysts for deflation.
"The secular reality of deflation & inequality is intensified by recession & rising unemployment, investors should expect a massive policy shift in 2016. Seven years after the west went “all-in” on QE & ZIRP, the US/Japan/Europe would shift toward fiscal stimulus via government spending on infrastructure or more aggressive income redistribution. …buy TIPs, gold, commodities, Main Street not Wall Street."
Just when you thought the M&A boom is over after a surge in bond yields that Goldman has repeatedly dubbed as "recessionary", and which will make the debt cost of any funding so high that there is barely any room for execution error, moments ago as had been extensively leaked previously, private Dell announced it would acquire tech giant EMC in a deal valued roughly $67 billion, while maintaining VMWare as a publicly-traded corporation. Good luck with raising the tens of billions in debt the deal will require: our best wish to Barclays, BofA, Citi, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, RBC who will all be underwriting the required debt financing to Dell.
Long gone is the illusion of: an elected body by the citizenry. Today, it’s become demonstrably self-evident the economy is run by an elected body – by the elected. And the consequences of this change is only now beginning to openly reverberate both in amplitude and frequency with every passing day.
"We believe that the path of least resistance would be to effectively ban capitalism and by-pass banking and capital markets altogether. We gave this policy change several names (such as “Cuba alternative”, “British Leyland”) but the essence of the new form of QE would be using central banks and public instrumentalities to directly inject “heroin into blood stream” rather than relying on system of incentives to drive investor behaviour."
Even with the drop in oil prices, the $7 trillion invested in Sovereign Wealth Funds makes them important participants in global capital markets; what they do, even at the margin, matters.
Hot on the heels of Deutsche Bank's admission that all is not well, Credit Suisse's announcement last night of a major capital raise was greeted by buying pressure from investors. However, reality punched them in the face this morning as CS releasaed its investor day details and, as Bloomberg reports, is looking to raise up to CHF8 billion (almost 50% larger than Goldman Sachs investor survey suggested). Clearly, CS' has a much more massive capital shortfall than expected.
Day After Deutsche Bank Admits Not All Is Well, Swiss Giant Credit Suisse Also Admits It Needs More CashSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/08/2015 07:51 -0500
Not everything is "fine" in the land of European banks, in fact quite the opposite.
"They're Converging To Dire Levels!": SocGen's Edwards Delivers Critical Warning On Inflation ExpectationsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/07/2015 17:00 -0500
"The collapse in inflation expectations tells us that the market believes the central banks, despite their monetary profligacy, are failing to prevent the western economies from turning Japanese, and thus at risk of repeating their devastating slide into outright deflation in the 1990s."
The takeaway is that to the extent the overnight relief rally in the ringgit and then subsequently in other Asia EM "assets" was catalyzed by a "better" than expected read on the situation in China, the market may be making a mistake because just like Chinese GDP prints, the headline figure on the PBoC's store of FX reserves should be taken with a grain (or perhaps a whole shaker) of salt when it comes to drawing conclusions about the pace of outflows from the world's second most important economy.
"A smart politician can see that if somehow the consumption of middle-class householders keeps rising, if they can afford a new car every few years and the occasional exotic holiday, and best of all, a new house, they might pay less attention to their stagnant monthly paychecks. And one way to expand consumption, even while incomes stagnate, is to enhance access to credit."