• Tim Knight from...
    02/06/2016 - 00:25
    What we must remember is this: we are in a bear market, and the risk of a countertrend rally is present, but confined. The opportunity on the downside movement dwarfs the risk of a push higher, as...
  • Phoenix Capital...
    02/06/2016 - 10:15
    2008 was caused by derivatives based on consumer-focused assets (houses). The next crisis will be driven by derivatives on government-focused assets (bonds).

Capital Markets

Tyler Durden's picture

Safe On The Sidelines - 405 Days And Counting





The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

More Bad News For Oil: Saudis Are Handling Crude Crash Better Than Expected





Saudi Arabia has released its official budget numbers for 2015 as well as projections for next year. As it turns out, Riyadh is weathering the storm better than analysts expected, meaning the war of attrition with US producers is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, meaning "lower for longer" oil prices and even more shale defaults in the future.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015: The Year That Exposed The "Experts" And Left The "Smart-Crowd" Dumbfounded





It wasn’t supposed to be this way. We were all told by the “experts” and the so-called “smart crowd” ad nauseam the economy and markets of 2015 were “ready for lift off.” Proclamations that GDP and other economic metrics were indeed going to be the unquestionable catalyst to help propel not only the markets themselves ever higher, but also, prove all the nay-sayers as well as data-deniers wrong. The problem? It was the exact opposite. 2015 exposed the sole overarching fundamental principle the “experts” refused to calculate into their qualitative analysis. That fundamental? Without the continuing interventionism of the Federal Reserve – there is no market. Period.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

12 Reasons Why One Advisor Is Betting Treasurys, Not Stocks, Is The Investment Of 2016





According to a recent contrarian call by  Prerequisite Capital Management, the "US Treasury Bond Market is potentially set up for a substantial move higher over the next year or two." Here are the reasons why.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Guns, Gas, & "Selling Kidneys" - 'Off The Grid' Indicators Signal Slowing Economy





Our quarterly survey of “Off the Grid” economic indicators finds that the U.S. economy is still growing, but the pace seems to be slowing from Q3 2015.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Oil Bankruptcies Hit Highest Level Since Crisis And There's "More To Come", Fed Warns





"Oil and gas sector bankruptcies have reached quarterly levels last seen in the Great Recession. At least nine U.S. oil and gas companies, accounting for more than $2 billion in debt, have filed for bankruptcy so far in the fourth quarter."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We Are Now Entering The "Discovery" Phase Of Financial Collapse





We now enter the “discovery” phase of financial collapse, where things labeled “capital” and “credit” turn out to be mere holograms. It’s not just the Federal Reserve; everything around us is backed into a corner as the rude discovery that capital is not what it has appeared to be is now underway, with the power to derail political systems and societies.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

We Disappeared Some Folks: Details Emerge In China's Sweeping Probe Of Stock Market Rescue





“Communist Party graft busters have been taking officials, one by one, to a hotel close to the [CSRC’s] headquarters to press them to come clean or report on others."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Presenting Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" For 2016





"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

 
Tyler Durden's picture

After The BOJ And ECB, Will Yellen Disappoint Next? SocGen Warns There Is "Risk The Market Will Be Wrong-Footed"





According to ScGen, the Fed is widely expected to start tightening policy on Wednesday and adds that "after the BoJ and ECB, we see a risk that the market will be wrong-footed for a third time, and that extreme positions built ahead of tightening will be reversed.... In particular, we are short US small cap equities vs large via being short Russell 2000 vs S&P 500.... As the Fed tightens and the market enters into a lower-liquidity environment (and higher-volatility regime), we think the premium on small caps is no longer justified."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Brazil Stocks, Currency Tumble After Fitch Downgrade To Junk





The writing has been on the wall since the S&P "junking" in September, and now Fitch has jumped on the bandwagon, cutting Brazil to BB+, outlook negative. 

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Salient Partners Issues A "Storm Warning" For The Market





There is a Category 5 deflationary hurricane forming off the Chinese coast as Beijing accelerates the devaluation of the yuan against the dollar under the guise of “reform”. I say forming … the truth is that this deflationary storm has already laid waste to the global commodity complex, doing trillions of dollars in damage. I say forming … the truth is that this deflationary storm has driven inflation expectations down to levels last seen when the world was coming to an end in the Lehman aftermath. And now the Fed is going to tighten? Are you kidding me?

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

What Happens When Stocks Catch Up With Commodities?





We’ve already gotten a taste of what happens when asset classes finally “adjust” to underlying “demand” with the commodity markets: having operated based on Central Bank money printing for five years, they then wiped out ALL of those gains in six months.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

And Another: Junk Bond Fund Run By Clintons' Close Personal Friend Slammed With Heavy Redemptions





News that billionaire Marc Lasry's Avenue Credit Strategies Fund open-ended mutual fund has been slammed with redemptions in recent weeks will hardly ease fears about a capital outflow from the junk bond which has sent junk ETFs down 12% for the year and has become the main topic of discussion over the past week following a flurry of reports about panic among holders of below-investment grade bonds.

 
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