Capital Markets

Frontrunning: November 18

  • Dollar heads for best fortnight vs. yen since 1988 (Reuters)
  • Jeff Sessions Said to Be Trump’s Pick for Attorney General (BBG)
  • Flynn set to be national security adviser (Reuters)
  • NATO Secretary General Expects to Speak With Trump ‘Very Soon’ (BBG)
  • Hensarling Could Be Wall Street’s Best Hope or Worst Nightmare (BBG)

Frontrunning: November 17

  • Dollar halts charge as bashed bonds steady (Reuters)
  • BOJ Fires Warning at Bond Market With Unlimited Buying Plan (BBG)
  • Trump Flouts Traditions Heading Into an Office Defined by Them (BBG)
  • Mr. Hedge Fund Goes to Washington, Looking for Ally in Trump (BBG)
  • Donald Trump’s Son-in-Law, Jared Kushner, Could Get Key White House Role (WSJ)
GoldCore's picture

Gold mine production is peaking globally and this is “bullish for gold” according to a slowly emerging group in the gold industry. It is great to see the reality of peak gold production slowly be acknowledged in the mainstream as it is an important fundamental factor in the market which has been continuously ignored.

Frontrunning: November 16

  • U.S. stock futures slip as post-election rally slows (Reuters)
  • Pence Ousts Lobbyists From Transition Team (WSJ)
  • Infighting hits Trump’s foreign policy transition (FT)
  • Trump’s Win and Transition Turmoil Buy Time for FBI Chief Comey (BBG)
  • Elizabeth Warren Sends Donald Trump Letter Criticizing Transition Team’s Wall Street Ties (WSJ)
  • Saudi Arabia set to reveal depth of oil reserves (FT)

Death Threats & Other Market Signals

Prior to the election, investors didn’t believe there was much operating leverage available in corporate America.  Slow revenue growth, slow inflation, slow wage growth, slow earnings growth.  That was the recipe for next year. Now, expectations for better economic growth have markets scrambling to find companies with the operating leverage (read high fixed costs and high incremental margins) to show outsized earnings growth as a result.

 

Frontrunning: November 15

  • Biggest Global Bond Rout Since 2003 Pauses (BBG)
  • Oil prices jump 3 percent on hopes of OPEC output cut (Reuters)
  • Italy polls get worse for Renzi as referendum nears (Reuters)
  • Trump will get wake-up call when he takes office, Obama says (Reuters)
  • With Priebus, Ryan’s Speakership Has Direct Channel to Trump (BBG)
  • Supreme Court now in Trump’s hands (The Hill)

Trump Victory Leads To Unprecedented Fund Flows; Trillions In Gains, Losses

The sharp rise in yields following the Trump victory inflicted a big loss in the value of the global bond universe with the dollar value of the universe of tradable bonds globally losing $1.2 trillion over the past week, while at the same, the value of global equities increased by $0.8 trillion; however the real fireworks were behind the scenes, where the fund in- and outflows within equity groups were truly unprecedented.

OPEC Just Knocked $20 Off Its Oil Price Outlook

OPEC warned in newly released report that oil prices might not rise above $60 per barrel until the end of the decade, in an acknowledgement that an array of bearish forces will conspire to keep a lid on any price rally.

We're All Hedge Funds Now - Central Banks Become World's Biggest Stock Speculators

There seems to be a growing assumption that the elites have finally figured out how to turn a capitalist system into a perpetual motion machine by having central banks buy up all financial assets. This is classic “peak of the cycle” thinking, and the more widespread it becomes the closer the system is to breaking down.

For Deutsche Bank, This Is The "Brexit Panic" Signal In Today's Election

Deutsche Bank has advised its sales and trading team to immediately report to their trading desks should Trump wins Pennsylvania and Michigan. So if Trump be is reported to be leading and/or winning the two key battleground states at 8pm, expect all volatility hell to break loose.