But the destruction of price discovery in the sovereign debt market is not simply an academic curiosity to be jawed about by the few remaining fiscal scolds in the world. To the contrary, it is already having massive toxic consequences in the arenas of fiscal governance and capital markets alike.
The robo-machines and perma-bulls are at it again, delivering another volumeless dead-cat bounce in a market that has churned sideways for 600 days now. Nevertheless, there is a reason for the churn and there is a culprit behind the abortive rallies.
On June 30, 2016, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on supranational institution, the European Union (EU), to 'AA' from 'AA+'. The 'A-1+' short-term rating was affirmed. The outlook is stable.
Sunday evening, as the world watched the fallout from what "Remin"-ers said was the end of the world, The BIS warned that central bank 'easing' actions "have started to backfire" and explained what little could be achieved with further stimulus. Three days later, first The Bank of England and then the European Central Bank both unleashed fresh bazookas as The PPT to save the world swung into action to rescue stocks and the all-important global wealth effect. Yet again - no consequences for anything will be allowed...
Barely has the market had time to digest last week's Brexit vote by the UK, a vote which may never actually be implemented if the "sturm und drang" campaign unleashed by the EU and the ECB on UK capital markets succeeds in changing the mind of enough "Leavers" to the point that the entire referendum is called off and Boris Johnson never triggers the Article 50 clause, and already Europe's most financially troubled nation, Italy, is using Brexit as a pretext to unleash a €40 billion ($44 billion) bailout of its insolvent banks.
"The global economy cannot afford to rely any longer on the debt-fuelled growth model that has brought it to the current juncture... The world has been haunted by an inability to restrain financial booms that, once gone wrong, cause long-lasting damage... We need policies that we will not once again regret when the future becomes today."
Just last week the European Central Bank (ECB) unveiled a self-produced exposé on its now openly celebrated trading operation. Only an Ivory Tower’d academic or Ph.D economist who’s never spent a day in the real world of business and/or market place could envision this as helping to bolster an image of surety or confidence.
Google "The Fed" and the search engine will offer to autofill your query with "surrenders," reflecting market concerns that The Fed has abandoned its recently more upbeat take on the domestic economy. During this week's semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, the success/failure of this appearance will hinge on the tone she chooses to strike and the conviction investors hear in her testimony and in Q&A. With so much chatter about the Fed “Losing credibility” with markets, this will be an important chance for Chair Yellen to set the record straight.
Less than a month ago, when looking at Nigeria's deplorable economic and reserve situation, we predicted that "Nigeria Currency Devaluation Looms As FX Forwards Crash To Record Lows." Ealier today this prediction came true when Nigeria’s central bank finally threw in the towel when it announced that the it will allow the Naira exchange rate to be market-driven, setting the stage for a devaluation of the currency, and unleashing the latest bout of hyperinflation.
In what may be a long overdue victory for the "good guys", the WSJ reports that the SECs staff has recommended that the agency approve IEX Group Inc.’s "controversial" bid to launch a new stock exchange, signaling likely approval when the agency’s commissioners vote on the order Friday.