The strange, ominous concept of "outsourced monetary policy" has returned — but this time we’ve put our monetary fate in even less-stable hands. Wjat Janet doesn't seem to comprehend is that putting oneself at the mercy of financial market sentiment seems a bit risky, given that Mr. Market is a well-known manic depressive.
Bankers and their technology partners say blockchain tech is not disruptive. Lawyers and others say it drops intermediation costs (but aren't bankers intermediaries?). The truth is disruption is unavoidable, and the sooner market participants realize this, the better.
Despite Yellen's best efforts today to basically dismiss any and all data as irrelevant going forward in The Fed's decision-making process, we suspect all eyes (and algos) will be firmly glued to this week's payrolls' data. Will it be another record month for Obama to crow about? Will Mark Zandi do the "told you so dance" to all the trump supporters who seem less exuberant about the recovery? One look at this chart - and the disastrous trend - and we suspect, sooner-rather-than-later, the fecal matter will be striking the rotating object in America...
"The escape options are a mixture of the ineffectual, the limited, the risky, the foolhardy or the excessively slow. As Japan’s recent experiments have demonstrated, upping the monetary dosage alone is not enough to cure the affliction. Indeed, to the extent that monetary stimulus only encourages a further wave of risk-taking within financial markets – often outside of the mainstream banking system - it may only perpetuate unstable deflationary stagnation."
A year and a half after Starboard proposed that the only thing Oliver Garden needs to attract new clients is to change the salt content of its pasta water, the activist fund has just unleashed a campaign seeking to overthrow the entire board of Yahoo, because the fund which clearly was a nutritional expert in late 2014, now thinks that its 1.7% in YHOO stock hodlings entitle it to the intimate knowledge of just how to "fix" Yahoo. Perhaps, the thinking goes, all it takes for people to start using Yahoo again is a new board?
The market reaction from last week’s dovish FOMC statement took many by surprise, including BofAML's HY Strategy team, but as they say the High-Yield Emperor has no clothes, warning that the underlying commentary provided by Chair Yellen shows the vulnerability for high yield issuers to longer-term growth trends. Couple the deteriorating fundamentals for HY issuers with downgrades outpacing upgrades by a ratio of 3.5:1 and a worsening of global growth potential, and they believe the recent rally, though boosted by strong inflows and cash generation, will ultimately fade.
It’s actually pretty easy. At an apt moment very soon, Trump should offer Governor Kasich the VP slot and Senator Cruz the vacant Supreme Court seat. Such a grand bargain would not only clear the primary field and quash any backroom hijacking of the nomination by the Washington GOP establishment; it would also permit each man to play his highest and best role at this great inflection point in the nation’s history.
In a worryingly coincidentally timed move, Moody's has put Desutche Bank on review for downgrade, citing "execution challenges" in its new strategic plan. The worrying aspect comes from the fact the timing is entirely fitting with the ratings downgrade that started the last and most painful down-leg in Lehman's collapse...
PBoC governor Zhou Xiaochuan is worried. The amount of debt accumulated by the country's corporate sector is "too much" and poses a "macroeconomic risk." Compounding the problem: the very same corporate sector has more than a half-trillion dollars in unpaid receivables on its books.
Over the past month, things for hedge funds have gone from terrible to absolutely abysmal, and as of this moment the GSTHHVIP index which tracks the performance of these "most popular" among hedge fund stocks, has never been lower despite the dramatic rebound in the broader market!
In the same way that FDR had an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US labor market, so does the US Executive branch today (regardless of what party holds the office) have an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US capital markets. Transforming Wall Street into a political utility was an afterthought for FDR; today the relative importance of the labor markets and capital markets have completely switched positions. Today, the quote would be "markets are too important to be left to investors."
If it looks like a crash, smells like a crash, acts like a crash, is it a recovery? Here's the hard hitting evidence that you just won't find anywhere else. Just don't shoot the messenger! BoomBustBlog style research is back with a vengence.
After a historic short squeeze which sent the stock of Peabody Energy soaring from $2.50 to $6.50 in under two weeks, things promptly reverted back to normal when the stock crashed back to earth plunging by 30% to $2.80 in the pre-market, and wiping out virtually all recent gains, after Peabody announced in its just filed 10-K, reported that it may have to join its peers Arch Coal and Alpha Natural in 11 bankruptcy protection, after it delayed $71 million in interest payment due on March 15.