Capital Markets

It's The Dollar, Stupid!

We expect global monetary authorities to protect the dollar as long as they can and we expect them to fail. Stocks and bonds will react violently; stocks and weak credits falling, treasuries prices rising (at first). That failure will lead to hyperinflation – not driven by demand, but rather by central bank money printing. A new global monetary understanding will then emerge.

In His Latest Letter, Odey Refuses To Throw In The Towel

With his fund down ~50%  YTD, one wonders if Crispin Odey should be thinking about quietly exiting stage left after a long and mostly illustrious career. However, as his latest letter suggests, Odey is just getting his second, or maybe third, wind and is confident that he will ultimately win the war against central bankers.

Trump's Trillion-Dollar Loser - What Happens Next?

In the weeks since Donad Trump was elected president, US financial stocks (and energy companies) have soared with all eyes on Dow 20k. However, across the world's capital markets, investors have lost a combined $1.2 trillion in debt and equity values, as the bond losses have outweighed stock gains dramatically (especially post-Fed). The question is - what happens next?

2016 Year In Review

We started this year with the economy deteriorating and finished it with the second interest rate increase in ten years. There were a lot of ups and downs along the way, but ultimately 2016 was defined by three key story-lines:  1) Brexit 2) The Presidential Election 3) Fed Policy. The first two events were votes that shocked the world. The stock market’s reaction to each was arguably even more shocking. 

China Halts Trading In Bond Futures After Record Bond Market Crash

Chinese authorities halted trading in key bond futures for the first time on Thursday, as panicky investors sold the securities on concern that a long, credit-fueled bull market was coming to an end amid slowing growth, capital outflows and heightened government concern about asset bubbles.

Goldman Appoints Harvey Schwartz, David Solomon As Co-COO Replacements For Gary Cohn

As the WSJ reported last night, this morning Goldman Sachs confirmed it has promoted Chief Financial Officer Harvey Schwartz and investment-bank co-head David Solomon to the role of co-COOs and co-presidents to replace Gary Cohn, who’s leaving to take a job in the Trump administration, and said Martin Chavez will succeed Schwartz as CFO.

Barron's Cover: "Get Ready For Dow 20,000"

With The Dow just one good day away from the nirvana of 20,000 - proving once and for all that the fiction-peddling naysayers are wrong about the US economy - Barron's unleashes its magazine cover curse to do all it can to end the party.

Breaking The Correlation Curse

The “Curse of Correlation” may have finally met its match. The President-Elect’s proposed policies break so completely with the last 8 post-Crisis years that investors are re-evaluating everything from the trajectory of long term interest rates to which sectors stand to benefit the most under a Trump presidency.

 

Presenting SocGen's "Most Frightening Credit Chart"

"I sometimes feel like ‘The Grim Reaper’, scouring the research savannah in a ghoulish quest to harvest bad news with a forceful sweep of my scythe. Imagine then my perverse delight when our credit team produced what is one of the scariest charts I have seen for a very long time." = Albert Edwards