Carlyle

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The Farce That Is Economics: Richard Feynman On The Social Sciences





“Because of the success of science, there is a kind of a pseudo-science. Social science is an example of a science which is not a science. They follow the forms. You gather data, you do so and so and so forth, but they don’t get any laws, they haven’t found out anything. They haven’t got anywhere – yet. Maybe someday they will, but it’s not very well developed. But what happens is, at an even more mundane level, we get experts on everything that sound like they are sort of scientific, expert. They are not scientists. They sit at a typewriter and they make up something like ‘a food grown with a fertilizer that’s organic is better for you than food grown with a fertilizer that is inorganic’. Maybe true, may not be true. But it hasn’t been demonstrated one way or the other. But they’ll sit there on the typewriter and make up all this stuff as if it’s science and then become experts on foods, organic foods and so on. There’s all kinds of myths and pseudo-science all over the place."

 
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Frontrunning: October 9





  • Five U.S. airports to screen for fever (Reuters)
  • Danger, central banks trading with each other: Bipolar U.S. Stocks See Biggest Mood Swing in Three Years  (BBG)
  • Draghi Policies Blunted in Berlin as German Protests Grow (BBG)
  • White policeman kills black teen in St Louis, triggering fresh protests (Reuters)
  • Au Revoir to France’s Welfare Model as Socialists Cut Spending (BBG)
  • Here comes Roberto Cavalski (Reuters)
  • There are 49 U.S. venture-capital-backed companies with a valuation of $1 billion or more—the highest number on record (WSJ)
  • Pressure mounts on Hong Kong leader over payout amid crisis (Reuters)
 
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Frontrunning: October 7





  • Liberian Rubber Farm Becomes Sanctuary Against Ebola (WSJ)
  • The World’s Most Powerful Central Banker: Janet Who? (BBG)
  • Islamic State moves into south west of Syrian Kurdish town (Reuters)
  • Waldorf to Be Biggest Chinese Property Purchase in U.S. (BBG)
  • Spain Seeks People in Contact With Ebola-Infected Nurse (BBG)
  • Hong Kong protests at crossroads as traffic, frustration pile up (Reuters)
  • Immigration: Grim Caseload at the Border (WSJ)
  • China Cuts Thousands of ‘Phantom’ Workers From State Payroll (BBG)
  • U.S., U.K. Regulators Push to Settle Deutsche Bank Libor Case This Year (WSJ)
  • Wall Street Moles Go to NY’s Top Cop, Spurning SEC Cash (BBG)
  • Pimco's outflow headaches only just beginning (Reuters)
  • Japan Lawmakers Flag Need for Exit Strategy as Yen Falls (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: September 26





  • Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Trillion-Euro Pump Finds Blockage in Spain: Euro Credit (BBG)
  • Apple plays defense on iPhone 6 bending, software concerns (Reuters)
  • U.S. to Shield Military From High-Interest Debt (WSJ)
  • U.S. Outgunned by Extremists on Social Media Battlefield (BBG)
  • Yen Weakens on Pension Fund Reform; Aussie Drops to 7-Month Low (BBG)
  • Secretive Russian oil giant has no fear of sanctions (Reuters)
  • Ride-Sharing Services Face Legal Threat From San Francisco, Los Angeles (WSJ)
  • Putin’s Sell-Treasuries-for-BRICS Bonds Plan Has Limits (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: September 1





  • Putin Suggests Statehood for Southeast Ukraine as Sanctions Loom (BBG)
  • Ukraine accuses Russia of 'open aggression' as rebels advance (Reuters)
  • Ruble Hits New Record Low Against Dollar (WSJ)
  • Further Russia Sanctions Seen `Almost Inevitable' (BBG)
  • Europe holds nerve as Russia-Ukraine warnings ratchet up (Reuters)
  • China manufacturing slowdown ripples through region (Reuters)
  • Brazil enters recession in election blow to Rousseff (Reuters)
  • Disruptive Hong Kong protests loom after China rules out democracy (Reuters)
  • Coal Miners See Signs of Recovery as Prices Stabilize (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: August 13





  • Obama says Missouri shooting death tragic, reflection needed (Reuters)
  • U.S. Weighs Iraq Rescue Mission to Save Yazidis (WSJ)
  • Maliki says Abadi's appointment as Iraqi PM 'has no value' (Reuters)
  • Iran Joins U.S. in Backing Replacement for Iraq’s Maliki (BBG)
  • Kurds Push Attack in North Iraq as Maliki Clings to Power (BBG)
  • Obama Donors Embrace Corporate Inversions He Criticizes (BBG)
  • Syrian Forces Advance on Aleppo, Rebels Fear Another Siege (WSJ)
  • Israel, Palestinians pursue Gaza deal with ceasefire clock ticking (Reuters)
  • Ebola Drug’s Success Bolsters Approach for Other Diseases (BBG)
  • With Natural Gas Byproduct, Iran Sidesteps Sanctions (NYT)
  • Kazakhs to Hoard Food as Putin Sanctions Rattle Alliance (BBG)
 
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The Credit Bubble's "Final Frontier" – Meet Goldman's FI(A)SCO





According to yesterday’s Wall Street Journal, the bailed out financial criminals at Goldman Sachs are set to launch the latest and greatest toxic derivative product directly into the portfolios of willing muppets the world over... and it all starts this September. Yes, it’s called the “Fixed Income Global Structured Covered Obligation,” (ironically close to the acronym FIASCO) and no, you will not have a clue what’s in it. No seriously, you won’t have a clue.

 
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Frontrunning: July 29





  • EU finalises Russian sanctions as BP warns of impact on business (FT)
  • Geopolitical Risk Rises for Global Investors (BBG)
  • Jaded Argentines brace for looming debt default (Reuters)
  • In Argentina, Mix of Money and Politics Stirs Intrigue Around Kirchner (WSJ)
  • Mom ‘Trusting God’ for Ebola-Infected U.S. Doctor’s Life (BBG)
  • Thanks NSA: Tech Companies Reel as NSA's Spying Tarnishes Reputations (BBG)
  • Goldman unit eyes foray into China amid metals financing scandal (Reuters)
  • Cash out time: London’s Gherkin Tower Offered for Sale by Its Lenders (BBG)
  • Apenomics strikes again: McDonald’s Japan axes profit guidance amid food safety scandal (FT)
  • Do you see what happens Larry when you are the only USDJPY bid? Nomura Profit Falls More Than Estimated on Broking Slump (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: July 24





  • EU to weigh extensive sanctions on Russia (FT)
  • U.S. lifts flight ban to Israel (Reuters)
  • Russia says will cooperate with MH17 probe led by Netherlands (Reuters)
  • Norway faces ‘concrete and credible’ terrorist threat (FT)
  • Don’t Tell Anybody About This Story on HFT Power Jump Trading (BBG)
  • But... but... PMI: Unilever Sales Growth Misses Estimates on Asian Slowdown (BBG)
  • World’s Biggest Wealth Fund Reviews $8 Billion Russian Stake (BBG)
  • Qualcomm latest US tech company to reverse in China (FT)
  • Hamptons Home Sales Rise as Buyers Find More Inventory (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: July 23





  • Here come the gates which we predicted in 2010: SEC Is Set to Approve Money-Fund Rules (WSJ)
  • Dick's cuts 400 jobs as golf now less popular (MW)
  • Kerry arrives in Israel, pushes for peace (Reuters)
  • Pay Penalty Haunts Recession Grads as U.S. Economy Mends (BBG)
  • Appeals Courts Issue Conflicting Rulings on Health-Law Subsidies (WSJ)
  • Rebel Stronghold Donetsk Holds Breath as Shellfire Mounts (BBG)
  • Business executive wins Georgia Republican runoff in U.S. Senate race (Reuters)
  • Five held in China food scandal probe, including head of Shanghai Husi Food (Reuters)
  • Jobs Hold Sway Over Yellen-Carney as Central Banks Splinter (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: July 14





  • Secret Path Revealed for Chinese Billions Overseas (BBG)
  • Traders Flood U.S. With $3.4 Trillion of Bond-Auction Demand (BBG)
  • Just in time to cover bad earnings in a massive $3.8 billion "one-time charge": Citi says to pay $7 billion to settle securities investigation (Reuters)
  • Troubled Epirito Santo family loosens grip on Portugal's BES (Reuters)
  • BES puts in place new executives after central bank push (Reuters)
  • Bank of China-CCTV drama may reveal power struggle in Beijing (SCMP)
  • Portugal speeds up Banco Espírito Santo management changes (FT)
  • Dark pool probe builds pressure on Barclays boss (Reuters)
  • Russia Vows to Respond After Shelling From Ukraine (BBG)
  • Ukraine forces end rebel airport blockade (Reuters)
  • Obama Contends With Arc of Instability Unseen Since '70s (WSJ)
 
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Frontrunning: July 10





  • Espirito Santo Financial Suspends Shares, Bonds on ESI Exposure (BBG)
  • Europe Stocks Drop for Fifth Day as Espirito Santo Sinks (BBG)
  • Espirito Santo Creditors Doubt Containment on Missed Payment (BBG)
  • French Stocks Seen Extending Losses on Economy Concern (BBG)
  • Stocks Slide With Portugal Bonds as Yen Gains; Oil Drops (BBG)
  • U.S. Probes Hacking of Government Computers at Personnel Agency (WSJ)... finds terabytes of porn 
  • It's Congress' fault: Obama rejects criticism over border crisis (Reuters)
  • Israel Mobilizes 20,000 Troops for Possible Gaza Invasion (BBG)
  • Chinese hackers pursue key data on U.S. workers (NYT)
  • Donetsk Primed for Siege as Ukraine Army Hems In Rebels (BBG)
 
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It's Beyond A Bubble: Median LBO Multiple Soars To Mindblowing 11.6x





According to just released data by Murray Devine, the Median Ebitda multiple for buyouts has exploded to nosebleed levels, rising by over one full turn of EBITDA since 2013 alone, and at 11.5x in the first half of 2014 is nearly 2x higher than during the last LBO bubble peak in 2008, when the average company was taken private at a conservative 9.6x EV/EBITDA.

 
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Frontrunning: July 9





  • Xi Says China Conflict With U.S. Would Be Disaster (BBG)
  • Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman (FT)
  • Scoping the new subprime as watchdogs cry 'bubble' (Reuters)
  • Carlos Slim to break up América Móvil empire (FT)
  • Jury Acquits Rengan Rajaratnam in Insider-Trading Case (WSJ)
  • Hamas rockets land deep in Israel as it bombards Gaza Strip (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Buyers Queue for New Homes After Prices Plunge (BBG)
  • Rebel Stronghold in Ukraine Braces for Its Showdown (WSJ)
  • Tiny Houses Big With U.S. Owners Seeking Economic Freedom (BBG)
  • Chinese Cash-Bearing Buyers Drive U.S. Foreign Sales Jump (BBG)
 
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Frontrunning: June 30





  • Facebook Researchers Manipulated News Feeds in 2012 Study (BBG)
  • Argentina at Brink of Default as $539 Million Payment Due (BBG)
  • Hedge fund correlation risk alarms investors (FT)
  • As China Flexes Muscle, Obama Frets Over Rival’s Weakness (BBG)
  • As caliphate declared, Iraqi troops battle for Tikrit (Reuters)
  • Dubai Caps Worst Month Since 2008 as Real Estate Stocks Tumble (BBG)
  • Russian Advisers Ready Iraq to Use New Combat Aircraft (BBG)
  • Blackstone Readies Big-Bet Hedge Fund (WSJ) - so what was GSO?
  • Pope says communists are closet Christians (Reuters)
  • Thomson Reuters revising FX trading standards (Reuters)
 
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