Carry Trade

Credit, Crypto, & Kuroda's "Bat-Shit-Crazy Monetary Expansion"

"This is bat-shit-crazy monetary expansion. Forget about arguing whether it is appropriate or needed. It doesn’t matter...What I find amazing is how complacent the markets have become about all of this...There will be consequences, we just don’t know what they are yet. Get your insurance while you can, not when you have to… "

FX Week Ahead: Market In Need Of Brain-Changer, Not Game-Changer

After the FOMC meeting last week, it was (yet) again apparent that the Fed are still keen to maintain a normalisation path designed to not only get rates back to neutral levels, but also build up the policy tool kit again as well as staving off excessive leverage which has boosted stock markets to record highs. 

Stocks Slide After Trump Threatens Government Shutdown Over Wall Funding, Killing NAFTA

US equity futures reversed early gains to slip as much as 0.3% following a fiery Trump campaign rally speech in which he threatened to shutdown government over border wall funding. Additionally, the yen strengthened, while the Mexican peso weakened 0.2 percent as the president also said he might terminate the North American Free Trade Agreement at some point.

Credit Investors Are Suddenly Extremely Worried About Central Banks

The latest credit investor survey by Bank of America shows a marked change in the Wall of Worry: "Quantitative Failure" by central banks has emerged as investors’ top concern (23%), up materially from June’s reading (6%). Investors say that a backdrop of the ECB ending QE next year, while inflation remains sub-par, "has the potential to rattle the market’s confidence."

"What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" - Two Banks Answer

With much of the investing world preparing to take the next two weeks off for vacation right after Friday's payrolls number hits, one question being thrown around by traders is "what could possibly go wrong" in the immediate future?  Below we present two banks' answers to this question.

FX Week Ahead: Can The Swiss National Bank Breathe A Sigh Of Relief?

Having focused on the USD in recent weeks, and how the market has rounded on the greenback 'en masse', we can finally look to some exchange rate moves outside of the major spot rates.  Sharp losses in the CHF have shown that the big money is taking note of the recovery in the Euro zone, and that investment prospects look good as the smaller member states are gaining traction alongside the power house that is Germany. 

"If The VIX Goes Bananas" This Is What It Will Look Like

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff.  Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts

"The Swarm Effect": Every Trader Today Has Just Two Choices

"...one faces a choice between two scenarios: 1) A small probability of losing all of your money all at once at an undisclosed time in the future, or 2) A high probability of gradually losing small amounts over an indefinitely long period of time, keeping in mind that persistent small losses over an indefinite time period could lead to large cumulative losses."

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."