Can Trump-economics prevent the asset price inflation now infecting the global economy - with its origins in the radical monetary experiment under the Obama Administration - from moving on to its late deadly phase?
We, and the rest of the world, are patiently hanging around, waiting to see if the Federal Reserve wakes up to what’s happening to dollar liquidity, and the threat it poses to the global economy and to its own (glacially slow) tightening cycle.
For 90 min, the panicky speculator herd stampeded. Then market makers reasserted control. No, not over price--of spread! They did not manipulate the price of gold upwards. They decarried gold, that is, sold spot and bought futures.
President Obama’s High Command at the Fed has had the luck which Napoleon looked for in his generals. The exercise of two Yellen puts seems to have delayed the late dangerous stage of asset price inflation to beyond 2016 Election Day.
Relative to disposable income, the value of household financial assets now far exceeds the last two bubble peaks. And that has happened in an economic environment which suggests just the opposite. To wit, valuation multiples and cap rates should be falling owing the fact that the productivity and growth capacity of the US economy has been heading south ever since the turn of the century. So here’s the danger...
"Indeed, the Fed is waging an insensible and outrageous war on savers, workers and future taxpayers - even as it pleasures the 1% with fantastic financial windfalls from the Wall Street casino. Now that is a rigged system. And that is a beltway evil that merits the Donald’s unrelenting attack on behalf of the citizens of Flyover America who have been left behind in their tens of millions."
September will be quite a busy month for investors since there are around 30 major central banks meetings scheduled. Since the Bank of England’s last policy announcement, the total monthly amount in global official quantitative easing has reached almost $200 billion, which corresponds, for the purpose of comparison, to Portugal’s annual GDP in 2015. Long-rumoured and oft-discussed, QE infinity is now a reality.
"The trouble is, financial prices cannot be falsified indefinitely. At length, they become the subject of a pure confidence game and the risk of shocks and black swans that even the central banks are unable to off-set. Then the day of reckoning arrives in traumatic and violent aspect."