Carry Trade

Tyler Durden's picture

Central Bank Currency Wars Have Engaged The "Nuclear Option"





An enduring curse of this financial crisis is the inability of markets to disengage from the clutches of the correlation of one. We see it ad seriatim, often day to day: everything is wonderful, all hail the central bank (Friday); the world is crashing, these empty suits are running us over the cliff (Tuesday).  Having gone on long enough, this phenomenon has turned traders into inveterate cynics who know the price of everything, and the value of nothing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"The Fed Suspended The Laws Of The Market In Order To Save It" - What Happens Next





"The intrinsic contradiction of policy response to the crisis – suspend the laws of the market in order to save it – is resolved only by understanding that suspension is temporary. Stimulus will have to be unwound. But, and here lies the problem, accommodation has been in place for a very long time and this has had a profound impact on investors behavior, market functioning and its dynamics."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Did A Central Banker Just Margin Call All Other Central Banks' Credibility?





Did the BOJ’s out-of-the-blue reversal on its monetary stance which was refuted just weeks prior by Mr. Kuroda himself take place because after listening to the arguments, suggestions, as well as concerns, from the participants at Davos he concluded much like what the movie “Margin Call” depicted: It was all about to unravel? And if so: is this him deciding to be “first” and considered it his only choice?

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Japan Just Lit the Fuse on a $9 Trillion Debt Bomb





Between Japan and Europe, over 20% of the world’s GDP is being managed by a Central Bank with NIRP.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

BoJ Adopts Negative Interest Rates, Fails To Increase QE





Well that did not last long. After initial exuberance over The BoJ's wishy-washy decision to adopt a 3-tiered rate policy including NIRP, markets have realized that without further asset purchases (which were maintained at the current pace), there is no ammo to lift stocks. An almost 200 point surge in Dow futures has been erased and Nikkei 225 has dropped 1000 points from its post BOJ highs... as 10Y JGB yields hit record lows at 11bps and 20Y JGB yields drop to 82bps - the lowest since 2003

 

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

Ignore Stocks, the REAL Crisis is Far Bigger and Far Worse





While stocks grab the headlines, there is another far more important crisis for investors to focus on.

 
 
Tyler Durden's picture

700 Days In No Man's Land - Why They Can't Keep It Up





The global economy has had its artificial boom and CapEx frenzy already and years of deflationary liquidation and correction lie ahead. Money printing has failed. Any effort by the central banks to double down on another $20 trillion of bond purchases would blow the world’s financial casinos sky high. Contemporary central bankers function like a team of monetary wranglers, herding the retail cattle toward the asset gathers. At the end of the day, the asset gathers will profoundly regret what they are clamoring for.

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

China's Devaluation is Just the Beginning of Systemic Risk





China’s devaluation will be just the tip of the iceberg as every fiat currency in the world derives a portion of its value based on where the US Dollar trades. What’s happening in China will be rippling throughout the system taking down entire countries/ currencies/ and stock markets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Risk Off: China Reenters Bear Market, Oil Tumbles Under $30; Global Stocks, US Futures Gutted





Yesterday, when looking at the market's "Bullard 2.0" moment, which in many ways was a carbon copy of the market's response to Bullard's "QE4" comments from October 17, 2014 until just a few minutes before the market close when suddenly selling pressure appeared, we said that either the S&P would soar - as it did in 2014 - hitting all time highs just a few months later, or the "Fed is now shooting VWAP blanks." Judging by what has happened since, in what may come as a very unpleasant surprise to the "the market is very oversold" bulls, it appears to have been the latter.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Markets Slide, US Futures Wipe Out Overnight Gains In Volatile Session





European shares tumbled, wiping out gains from a two-day rally, Asian stocks slid and the cost of insuring corporate debt rose as investor concern over global growth prospects resurfaced. U.S. equity-index futures pared gains of as much as 0.9 percent. Government bonds rose, with yields falling to records in Japan and China amid anxiety over the world economy. U.S. crude prices stabilized after dropping below $30 a barrel on Tuesday to touch the lowest since 2003 as Iran moved closer to boosting exports.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Hong Kong Dollar De-Pegging Risk Spikes As Yuan Slides, China Stocks Drop To 2-Year Lows





Chinese stocks are down over 20% from Dec highs at 2-year lows, Offshore Yuan is tumbling once again, and Hong Kong Dollar is under severe pressure (with significant de-pegging risk once again).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Tanker Rates Tumble As Last Pillar Of Strength In Oil Market Crashes





If there was one silver-lining in the oil complex, it was the demand for VLCCs (as huge floating storage facilities or as China scooped up 'cheap' oil to refill their reserves) which drove tanker rates to record highs. Now, as Bloomberg notes so eloquently, it appears the party is over! Daily rates for benchmark Saudi Arabia-Japan VLCC cargoes have crashed 53% year-to-date to $50,955 (as it appears China's record crude imports have ceased).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Some Chinese Banks Run Out Of Physical Dollars As PBOC Holds Yuan Fix Flat For 4th Day





Having apparently taken the day off from selling US Treasuries and buying Offshore Yuan (following yesterday's "murderous" short-squeeze"), completing a 40 handle round trip in the "stable" currency year-to-date, PBOC decided to hold Yuan flat for the 4th day but make a statement that they would "give policy support to exports" - in other words devalue more. The unintended consequence of their decision to withdraw liquidity and crush shorts in offshore Yuan is more problematic as it has reportedly left Chinese banks short of dollars at their ATMs (and are delaying withdrawals). Meanwhile, another of China's favorite outlets for capital outflows - Bitcoin - just got stomped.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The China Syndrome: The Coming Global Financial Meltdown





This decline is inevitable in fast-expanding economies that play fast and loose with credit/debt and leverage. All the phantom wealth piled up in China's boost phase is now melting down, and the China Syndrome will trigger a meltdown in global phantom assets.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman Closes "Top Trade For 2016" With 5.4% Loss Just 11 Days Into 2016, As US Banks Tumble





Just 11 days into 2016, Goldman has been stopped out of one of its 6 "top trades for 2016" following a 5.4% loss on its "long large-cap US banks" trade as these "relatively well-priced, trading just above book value" assets turned out to be relatively unwell priced...

 
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