Carry Trade

A Bearish Positive Carry Trade?

The Eurostoxx outperformance of the past month has garnered a lot of attention, but there is another similar trade many investors are missing. Not only that, but it has a positive carry, something that is sorely lacking in this day and age of NIRP.

Oil Fireworks Unsettle Global Markets Ahead Of Payrolls Report

With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report. In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.

Breslow's Advice To Those Traders "Who Need To Be Miserable To Be Happy"

The analytical response continues to be that there’s no risk-off or risk-on. There’s calamity versus the divine right to have everything go continuously higher. We decry the greater-fool investor and then furiously bemoan his absence when there’s no one willing to cross the spread and pay your offer at every price point.

 

Global Stocks Slide, S&P Futures Tumble Below 50DMA As "Trump Trade" Collapses

Global stocks are lower across the board to start the week, as concerns about Trump's administration to pull off a material tax reform plan finally emerge, pressuring S&P futures some 20 points lower this morning, following European and Asian shares lower, while crude oil prices fall unable to find support in this weekend's OPEC meeting in Kuwait where a committee recommended to extend oil production cuts by another 6 months.

Raising Interest Rates Can't End Well

"The economy looks to me like a type of Ponzi Scheme. It depends on both rising energy consumption and rising debt. Judging from the problems we are having now, it seems to be reaching its limit in the near term. Raising interest rates will tend to push it even further toward its limit, or over the limit. The world economy is operating at too close to 'stall speed'. The financial system is too fragile."

Japan Begins QE Tapering: BOJ Hints It May Purchase 18% Less Bonds Than Planned

Japan appears to have quietly commenced its own monteary tightening because, as Bloomberg calculates looking at the BOJ's latest bond-purchase plan, the central bank is on track to miss an annual target, by a substantial margin, prompting investor concerns that the BOJ has commenced its own "stealth tapering."

Can Yellen Keep The Boom Going?

Yellen, like notorious previous Fed chiefs including Strong, Martin, and Greenspan, can now claim success in having prolonged and strengthened an asset price inflation which otherwise may well have been about to enter its severe end phase. If history is any guide, the result of that success is to be feared.

The "Super Bowl Party Conversation" Indicator

"The party this weekend was an example of the third stage. Wives were walking around with freshly injected lips and botoxed faces. Men were brandishing new Rolex watches while bragging about their latest acquisitions. I now know more about their personal stock portfolios than I do about their children’s latest successes."