Carry Trade

FX Week Ahead: Can The Swiss National Bank Breathe A Sigh Of Relief?

Having focused on the USD in recent weeks, and how the market has rounded on the greenback 'en masse', we can finally look to some exchange rate moves outside of the major spot rates.  Sharp losses in the CHF have shown that the big money is taking note of the recovery in the Euro zone, and that investment prospects look good as the smaller member states are gaining traction alongside the power house that is Germany. 

"If The VIX Goes Bananas" This Is What It Will Look Like

This note details how a short vol unwind might develop. A violent rise in volatility could be driven by just a 3% to 4% one-day S&P 500 selloff.  Right now the risk is greatest in the VIX complex, and demand for VIX futures from three main sources could result in 100,000 contracts

"The Swarm Effect": Every Trader Today Has Just Two Choices

"...one faces a choice between two scenarios: 1) A small probability of losing all of your money all at once at an undisclosed time in the future, or 2) A high probability of gradually losing small amounts over an indefinitely long period of time, keeping in mind that persistent small losses over an indefinite time period could lead to large cumulative losses."

Euro Surges To 2-Year High In "Bipolar" Draghi Reaction; Futures Flat

"Draghi tried to talk the Euro down, even going so far as to suggest that ECB’s quantitative easing could be increased and prolonged," said Swissquote Bank's Yann Quelenn. "But the currency markets were not buying Draghi’s line, and neither are we. Available bonds are too scarce, and turn to a taper is too clear to disguise."

Deutsche: The Market Broke In 2012, "This Is What Everyone Is Talking About"

"After 2011, the two measures of risk decouple with VIX consistently low despite growing uncertainty. The breakdown is structural, and it is visible across all market sectors, not only equities. Current levels of complacency are alarming. This is what everyone is talking about... The longer this regime continues, the lower the threshold of painful unwind."

David Stockman Blasts The "Derangement & Danger On The Potomac"

"The American people are being brought to ruin by three institutions that are mortal threats to liberty and prosperity. To wit, the Federal Reserve, the military/industrial/surveillance complex and a sinecured Congress that is burying unborn generations in debt -- even as it sanctimoniously presumes that it is doing god's work by servicing the beltway racketeers who keep it perpetually in office..."

Falling Interest Rates Have Postponed "Peak Oil"

"The new crisis can be expected to be 'Peak Economy' instead of Peak Oil. Peak Economy is likely to have a far different shape than Peak Oil - a much sharper downturn. It is likely to affect many aspects of the economy at once. The financial system will be especially affected. "

A Bearish Positive Carry Trade?

The Eurostoxx outperformance of the past month has garnered a lot of attention, but there is another similar trade many investors are missing. Not only that, but it has a positive carry, something that is sorely lacking in this day and age of NIRP.

Oil Fireworks Unsettle Global Markets Ahead Of Payrolls Report

With all eyes on crude, following last night's mini flash crash which sent WTI lower by 3% from just above $45 to under $43 in under 10 minutes, equity markets, generally quiet overnight, have taken on a secondary importance ahead of today's key risk event, the April payrolls report. In global equities, Asian and European stocks are lower, while S&P futures are little changed.

Breslow's Advice To Those Traders "Who Need To Be Miserable To Be Happy"

The analytical response continues to be that there’s no risk-off or risk-on. There’s calamity versus the divine right to have everything go continuously higher. We decry the greater-fool investor and then furiously bemoan his absence when there’s no one willing to cross the spread and pay your offer at every price point.