Carry Trade

Futures Surge On Renewed "Hopes" Of Fed Rate Hike, Sliding Yen

The market, which clearly ignored the glaring contradictions in Yellen's speech which said that overseas events should not affect the Fed's policy path just a week after the Fed statement admitted it is "monitoring developments abroad", and also ignored Yellen explicit hint that NIRP is coming (only the size is unclear), and focused on the one thing it wanted to hear: a call to buy the all-critical USDJPY carry pair - because more dollar strength apparently is what the revenue and earnings recessioning S&P500 needs - which after trading around 120 in the past few days, had a 100 pip breakout overnight, hitting 121 just around 5am, in the process pushing US equity futures some 25 points higher at last check.

The Established Order Will Be Challenged

What can we expect to happen in our homeland when finally even the generally uninformed population also understands that governments they have elected for decades, and its Fed facilitator or controller, jointly have waged a century-long war on its citizens? The people of America cannot make a counter offensive similar to those of sovereign nations; however people are uniting in resistance to robber baron policies, as evidenced by the popularity of nonpoliticians currently in candidacy for the office of president. These troops will mass also, it just remains to be seen what form their eventual counter offensive will be. The established order will be challenged.

China's "Reverse QE" Could Top $1.2 Trillion, Barclays Says

"In such a downside scenario there could be pressure on the central bank to provide about 10-12% of GDP in reserves to the market to offset outflows as well as hedging demand (which could be met by intervening in forward markets). This is roughly USD1.0-1.2trn – that would be about 30% of its current reserve portfolio."

US Equity Futures Hit Overnight Highs On Renewed Hope Of More BOJ QE

After sliding early in Sunday pre-market trade, overnight US equity futures managed to rebound on the now traditional low-volume levitation from a low of 1938 to just over 1950 at last check, ignoring the biggest single-name blowup story this morning which is the 23% collapse in Volkswagen shares, and instead have piggybacked on what we said was the last Hail Mary for the market: the hope of more QE from either the ECB or the BOJ. Tonight, it was the latter and while Japan's market are closed until Thursday for public holidays, its currency which is the world's preferred carry trade and the primary driver alongside VIX manipulation of the S&P500, has jumped from a low of just over 119 on Friday morning to a high of 120.4, pushing the entire US stock market with it.

What Fund Managers Think Is The Biggest "Tail Risk" At This Moment

Below we show what the latest, September, response is to the question "what investors consider the biggest tail risk" as well as evolution of this answer in the three months preceding. Curiously both #1 and #2 risks, namely "China recession" and "EM Debt Crisis", are an indirect function of the recent and ongoing surge in the dollar, which will likely be exacerbated should the Fed indeed launch its first rate hike cycle in 9 years.

USDJPY Surges Ahead Of BoJ Statement, China Strengthens Yuan As Washington Folds On Cybersecurity Sanctions

It appears someone is betting on Kuroda and his cronies to do something later this evening (just like they did as The Fed stopped QE3 back in October) in some wierd monetray policy quid pro quo of - dump Yen all you like as long as the carry trade is alive and well. USDJPY is up from 119.85 to 120.50 (and NKY up over 400 points from US session lows), as perhaps the fact that The BoJ's ETF-buying kitty is running dry at a crucial time. Chinese equity markets are extending yesterday's losses as margin debt declines to a 9 month low (still +62% YoY), injects another CNY50bn and strengthens the Yuan fix for the 3rd day in a row; but in a somewhat embarrassing move, Washington has decided not to impose sanctions on China ahead of Xi's first state visit next week.

Futures Slide More Than 1%, At Day Lows Ahead Of "Rate Hike Make Or Break" Payrolls

Moments ago, US equity futures tumbled to their lowest level in the overnight session, down 22 points or 1.1% to 1924, following both Europe (Eurostoxx 600 -1.8%, giving up more than half of yesterday's gains, led by the banking sector) and Japan (Nikkei -2.2%), and pretty much across the board as DM bonds are bid, EM assets are all weaker, oil and commodities are lower in what is shaping up to be another EM driven "risk off" day. Only this time one can't blame the usual scapegoat China whose market is shut for the long weekend.

With China's Market Chaos Offline, Futures Levitate On ECB Easing Hopes

With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.