A trillion dollars of housing debt has been replaced by a trillion dollars (or more) of student and auto loan debt. Delinquency rates are increasing for student and auto loans, while other loan types have seen a decrease in delinquency. Finally, the value of both the university education and the automobiles people are buying don’t seem to justify the amount being borrowed and spent.
While many were wondering if China would unleash QE (which it has been effectively doing for years, using various liquidity conduits), Beijing has quietly launched the biggest fiscal stimulus in history, one that is even bigger than 2009-10, following the global meltdown.
Global auto sales just hit an all time high of 78 million units in September, however the explanation is simple: China. Of the impressive 4.4 million unit rise in global auto sales since June, China alone contributed for 84% of this global increase, or 3.7mn units.
What do you do when you've provided every stimulus possible to drive auto sales ($0 down, 0% APR, 70 month term, no credit, no problem) but growth still slows? Well, you start to play games to manufacture "sales", of course.
The corporate mainstream media faux journalists scorn and ridicule anyone who makes the case we are currently in the midst of another Great Depression. They are paid to peddle a recovery narrative to keep the masses ignorant, sedated, and distracted by latest adventures of Caitlyn Jenner and the Kardashians. An impartial assessment of the facts reveals today’s Depression to be every bit as dreadful for the average American as it was in the 1930s
The economic backwash of too-expensive new cars and the reappearance in the marketplace of affordable alternatives (good used cars) is causing sales of new cars to wilt, probably precipitously, as invariably happens in a Boom Bust cycle. The car industry will squeal for help from Uncle Sam – just like back in the early 2000s. And Uncle will be happy to oblige, as he always is... But Uncle’s “help” always comes at a cost.
It appears that the Chinese Politburo has also noticed that it finds itself straddled with yet another unsustainable housing bubble, not only in Shenzhen, but also Shanghai, and all other Tier 1 cities and has taken aggressive steps to slow down this exponential surge in prices before it gets even more out of control. As a result, on Friday the local government took the following "sudden" steps to halt the exponential rise in home prices and tighten the local housing market dramatically.
Termites start low and work their way up. By the time you notice them, it’s often already too late to save the place. All you can do is rebuild, start over. This analogy may be useful in terms of understanding what’s going on in the car business...
The continued misuse of capital and continued erroneous monetary policies have instigated not only the recent downturn but actually 30 years of an insidious slow moving infection that has destroyed the American legacy. “Recessions” should be embraced and utilized to clear the “excesses” that accrue in the economic system during the first half of the economic growth cycle. Trying to delay the inevitable, only makes the inevitable that much worse in the end.