CBOE

Charts Of The Week: 10 Reasons To Be Cautious In This Market

"First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is where the point where previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is not the beginning, but rather an indication of the maturity of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution."

Make Stocks Volatile Again

January tends to show extremes of the market’s perceptions of near term risks, for good or for bad. And we know that at current levels the VIX highlights a complacent market. Does that assure us that things will get choppier from here? Of course not. But to be boldly bullish here is to ignore the historical patterns. And that seems riskier than staying aware of both history and current market dynamics. Based on the level of the economic policy uncertainty in the world, a regression model would have predicted that the VIX would be pushing 30 instead of hovering around 10.

What If Hillary Had Won?

Fixed income markets are essentially in a new world; US stocks, by comparison, are in only a slightly better position. The “Trump rally” has only been worth 4-5% when compared to our “What if” Clinton scenario. Realistically, it should either be more (if bond markets are right about a breakout in inflation/corporate pricing power) or less (with higher rates pressuring equity valuations in the absence of greater earnings power).

The Wierdest Thing About 2016 Is...

"Trump wins US Election"? "UK Leaves EU"? "Cubs Win World Series"? How about this one: "The VIX Peaks in February"? For the first time since the start of the modern VIX in 1990, the 'Fear Gauge' peaked in that month...

2016 Facts And Figures Quiz

From Donald Trump’s unorthodox but successful campaign for President to the Brexit vote, popular votes shifted the course of global politics in ways very few could have imagined a year ago. Here is a brief quiz that highlights the year’s politics, developments in technology, and changes in the U.S. labor market/economic policy. 

RBC: "Be Prepared For Another 'Vol-Control' Deleveraging Wave"

"At this frantic vol buying pace, with VIX +17% on the day, it won’t take much longer until further mechanical deleveraging is triggered from these extremely popular retail and ALM vehicles  Long story short, be prepared for another deleveraging wave (which could be happening ‘real time’ as I send) the longer vols stay at these levels, bc they’ve just been ‘stuck’ so low in recent weeks."

Frontrunning: October 28

  • European Stocks Fall on Earnings as Bond Rout Eases; Metals Rise (BBG)
  • Wall Street’s Frantic Push to Hire Coders (BBG)
  • In Germany, Syrians find mosques too conservative (Reuters)
  • Oregon militants acquitted of conspiracy in wildlife refuge seizure (Reuters)
  • Some Cities Want Their Immigrants to Vote (BBG)
  • Americans Are Dying Faster. Millennials, Too (BBG)