CBOE

RBC: "Be Prepared For Another 'Vol-Control' Deleveraging Wave"

"At this frantic vol buying pace, with VIX +17% on the day, it won’t take much longer until further mechanical deleveraging is triggered from these extremely popular retail and ALM vehicles  Long story short, be prepared for another deleveraging wave (which could be happening ‘real time’ as I send) the longer vols stay at these levels, bc they’ve just been ‘stuck’ so low in recent weeks."

Frontrunning: October 28

  • European Stocks Fall on Earnings as Bond Rout Eases; Metals Rise (BBG)
  • Wall Street’s Frantic Push to Hire Coders (BBG)
  • In Germany, Syrians find mosques too conservative (Reuters)
  • Oregon militants acquitted of conspiracy in wildlife refuge seizure (Reuters)
  • Some Cities Want Their Immigrants to Vote (BBG)
  • Americans Are Dying Faster. Millennials, Too (BBG)

Investors Panic-Buy Stock Crash Protection As Clinton Lead Grows

Despite the mainstream media's constant spewing of the chaos and carnage a Trump 'win' in November will cause to the global financial markets (remember Brexit?), it seems that as Hillary's lead grows, so professionals are piling into downside protection at the fastest pace in US history...

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.

"More To Come" - Trader Warns VIX Seasonality Suggests "It's Not Over Yet"

It was just a matter of time, noted one veteran trader, as VIX smashed higher out of its comfort zone on Friday. This is not completely unexpected as seasonally VIX has bled lower into July then risen notably into November. This year that lines up perfectly withe election uncertainty and as the trader warned, "there's more to come..."

"It's Never Different This Time" PIMCO Warns "The Tides Of Risk Will Flow Eventually"

The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.

VIX Options Activity Signals Possible Volatility Spike

Looking out 21 days after a low-volume signal from VIX put options, the S&P is sitting on an average loss of 0.7% -- well below its average "anytime" 21-day return of 1%. Meanwhile, the VIX is up nearly 26%, on average, 21 days post-signal -- easily outstripping its average return of 2.8% for this time frame.

The Permian Pitfall: A Race To The Bottom For Tight Oil

Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.

Weekend Reading: Willful Blindness

The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.