With the threat of a potential 'black swan' event with a Trump Victory, The Elite have pulled out their "Ace in the Hole" - Russia. Russia is the most feared and misunderstood of all US artificial villians (even more than Islamic Terrorists).
Despite the mainstream media's constant spewing of the chaos and carnage a Trump 'win' in November will cause to the global financial markets (remember Brexit?), it seems that as Hillary's lead grows, so professionals are piling into downside protection at the fastest pace in US history...
While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.
Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended. However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.
It was just a matter of time, noted one veteran trader, as VIX smashed higher out of its comfort zone on Friday. This is not completely unexpected as seasonally VIX has bled lower into July then risen notably into November. This year that lines up perfectly withe election uncertainty and as the trader warned, "there's more to come..."
The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.
Looking out 21 days after a low-volume signal from VIX put options, the S&P is sitting on an average loss of 0.7% -- well below its average "anytime" 21-day return of 1%. Meanwhile, the VIX is up nearly 26%, on average, 21 days post-signal -- easily outstripping its average return of 2.8% for this time frame.
Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.
Even if the current rally in excess of 20% from the February low is the last one of the cyclical bull market from 2009, BofAML says there should more room to run. The average rally of at least 10% that is the last rally of cyclical bull trend has an average return of 46.88% and an average length of 13.1 months.
The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.
"Long bonds, short the Fed funds futures. Long equities but long bonds. Long gold but long equities. Long the dollar and long the precious metals. It is next to impossible to make sense out of this; I’m not even sure Graham or Dodd could if they were still alive."
The current oil-price rally led many to believe that a full price recovery was underway. But inventories have been too large for that to happen short of epic supply interruptions. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low. The oil-price rally that began in February is over.
Having tagged last Thursday's intraday highs, S&P futures are fading this morning (for now), as Bloomberg notes, U.S. stock-market internals are exhibiting conflicting signs as the rally in the S&P 500 Index approaches 10% from the low reached after Brexit.