CBOE

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Global Central Bank-Driven Stock Rally Fizzles; Crude Rebounds On Saudi Oil Production Cut Report

Until minutes ago, this week's rebound in global equities appeared to be running out of steam as oil retreated from a two-week high and a dollar slide ended.  However, as noted just around 6am, Reuters reported, citing as it usually does various "anonymous sources", that in a radical departure from its long-held policy of not cutting production, Saudi Arabia was prepared to cut production on condition that Iran freezes output, which led to an instant spike in crude.

"More To Come" - Trader Warns VIX Seasonality Suggests "It's Not Over Yet"

It was just a matter of time, noted one veteran trader, as VIX smashed higher out of its comfort zone on Friday. This is not completely unexpected as seasonally VIX has bled lower into July then risen notably into November. This year that lines up perfectly withe election uncertainty and as the trader warned, "there's more to come..."

"It's Never Different This Time" PIMCO Warns "The Tides Of Risk Will Flow Eventually"

The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.

VIX Options Activity Signals Possible Volatility Spike

Looking out 21 days after a low-volume signal from VIX put options, the S&P is sitting on an average loss of 0.7% -- well below its average "anytime" 21-day return of 1%. Meanwhile, the VIX is up nearly 26%, on average, 21 days post-signal -- easily outstripping its average return of 2.8% for this time frame.

The Permian Pitfall: A Race To The Bottom For Tight Oil

Remember the shale gale and Saudi America? The scale of those outlandish delusions has now dwindled to plays in a few counties in West Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Saudi Permian. It’s a race to the bottom as investors double down on the tight oil companies that can still tell a growth story.

Weekend Reading: Willful Blindness

The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.

David Rosenberg: "This Market Makes No Sense"

"Long bonds, short the Fed funds futures. Long equities but long bonds. Long gold but long equities. Long the dollar and long the precious metals. It is next to impossible to make sense out of this; I’m not even sure Graham or Dodd could if they were still alive."

Oil Industry About To Be Burned Again By Fall In Oil Prices

The current oil-price rally led many to believe that a full price recovery was underway. But inventories have been too large for that to happen short of epic supply interruptions. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low. The oil-price rally that began in February is over.

"The Market's In Conflict" - 11 Red Flags In A Sea Of Green

Having tagged last Thursday's intraday highs, S&P futures are fading this morning (for now), as Bloomberg notes, U.S. stock-market internals are exhibiting conflicting signs as the rally in the S&P 500 Index approaches 10% from the low reached after Brexit.

Derivative Strategist Warns Of $150 Billion In Quant Selling Over The Next Three Days

“The bigger the down move today, the more they have to sell, which would basically create a vicious cycle,” Cheong, head of Americas equity derivatives strategy at UBS, said in a phone interview. “We’ll see front-loaded selling in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion over the next two to three days. It could be very similar to August in terms of model-based selling.”