CBOE

Oil Industry About To Be Burned Again By Fall In Oil Prices

The current oil-price rally led many to believe that a full price recovery was underway. But inventories have been too large for that to happen short of epic supply interruptions. U.S. rig counts have surged as oil prices sink. Capital is driving the oil markets and it enables bad behavior by producers. That is why oil prices will stay low. The oil-price rally that began in February is over.

"The Market's In Conflict" - 11 Red Flags In A Sea Of Green

Having tagged last Thursday's intraday highs, S&P futures are fading this morning (for now), as Bloomberg notes, U.S. stock-market internals are exhibiting conflicting signs as the rally in the S&P 500 Index approaches 10% from the low reached after Brexit.

Derivative Strategist Warns Of $150 Billion In Quant Selling Over The Next Three Days

“The bigger the down move today, the more they have to sell, which would basically create a vicious cycle,” Cheong, head of Americas equity derivatives strategy at UBS, said in a phone interview. “We’ll see front-loaded selling in the range of $100 billion to $150 billion over the next two to three days. It could be very similar to August in terms of model-based selling.”

10 Stats About The Last 10 Years

Think back over the last 10 years - how different was your life in April 2006?  While you may think your daily existence is largely the same (maybe the kids are older or you’re married now, but that about it…), consider what was actually different about your life in the spring of 2006:No iPhone;No Facebook (unless you were in college at the time); No Twitter; No Instagram; No Kim Kardashian; No Uber; No iPad.

What The Charts Say: 15 "Risks" To The Recent Rally

The stock surge from February is at risk, warns BofAML's Stephen Suttmeier as a plethora of bearish divergences could cap further gains from here. 2044-2022 are key nearby S&P 500 support for April, but a loss of 2022 is required to break the last higher low from 3/24 and suggest a deeper decline for the S&P 500. The following 15 risk-factors - from VIX term structure steepness to Dow Theory Sell signals - all point to a retest of the recent 1810-1820 lows.

Something Just Snapped In The VIX ETF Complex

As TVIX, the double-levered long VIX ETF unleashed in Nov 2010, decays to record low prices, an unusual (and almost unprecedented) event has occurred. Just as we saw in Gold ETFs, and Oil ETFs, TVIX Shares Outstanding have exploded by a stunning 225% in the last 4 weeks with the largest inflows (bearish bets) on record in the last week. The entire VIX complex is perturbed as the huge bearish TVIX flows contrast with the complacency of the steepest term structure since Nov 2014 (post Bullard-Bounce) and net speculative positioning at its shortest VIX (most bullish) in 2016.

Another False Oil Price Rally: Crossing A Boundary

"The oil-price rally that began in mid-February will almost certainly collapse. It is similar to the false March-June 2015 rally. In both cases, prices increased largely because of sentiment. As in the earlier rally, current storage volumes are too large and demand is too weak to sustain higher prices for long."

What The Charts Say: A "Complacent", "Overbought" Market With 2018 Support And 2075 Resistance

In a market overtaken by central bankers, where fundamentals don't work (or work inversely because the worse the data, the greater the central bank stimulus and/or jawboning) traders are flying blind and hoping that at least technicals can provide some information. Courtesy of BofA's chief technician, Stephen Suttemier, below is a summary of what the latest charts say, and why he believes that the "overbought", "complacent" market has support around 2018-2002 and resistance is at 2075-2085.