Census Bureau

US Auto Industry In Crisis Amid "Inventory Bubble"

Despite record U.S. auto sales last year, the number of vehicles on car-dealer lots remains near record highs, and, as J.D.Power analyst Thomas King warned this week, 2016 ended with an inventory "bubble" that will require less production or more incentives to clear.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump's First Actions

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Friday. On the political front, the focus will be is on the first actions of the Trump administration including moves on TPP and NAFTA. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Peak Savings: Wall Street Faces 20 Years Of Retirement Withdrawals As Boomers Hit 70 1/2

The United States is a demographic time bomb, plain and simple.  Over the next 30 years, the U.S. economy will face an unrelenting demographic transition as ~75 million baby boomers exit the highest wage earning years of their life and start to draw down what little retirement savings they've managed to tuck away while wreaking havoc to the public "safety net" ponzi schemes, like Social Security, that will almost certainly be insolvent in a decade.

The US Economy: Back On Track?

The weekly rail traffic report published by the Association of American Railroads provides a great snapshot of US economic activity almost in real (weekly) time. Last July we noted that we were starting to witness some signals of a trend change, now suggesting a softening. But much has happened since then, including a broadly unexpected change in the political direction of the US. Have those signals been reversed as a result?

BofA Finds Consumer Spending Tumbled In December, Warns Of Disappointing Retail Sales

According to BofA, retail sales ex-autos declined 1.0% mom seasonally adjusted in December. "This contrasts with other indicators of consumer strength including reports of a robust holiday shopping season, a rebound in consumer confidence and strong autos sales... we think it is prudent to prepare for a similarly negative number in Friday's report."

It's The Debt, Stupid - Massive Borrowing Binge Producing Fake Recovery

Taken together recent economic data paint a picture of a global economy that’s finally returning to the kind of solid growth and steady, positive inflation that most people consider both normal and good. Unfortunately, the reason for the improvement is emphatically not good: In 2016 the world borrowed a huge amount of money and spent the proceeds. The result is “growth,” but not sustainable growth.

Illinois Is Losing 1 Resident Every 4.6 Minutes

Imagine the entire population of Peoria, Illinois’ seventh-largest city, all picking up and moving across state lines in one year, never to work, pay taxes or create jobs in Illinois again. That’s equivalent to what happened to Illinois over the past year...

The Federal Reserve And The Destruction Of The American Dream

President-elect Trump, consider this to be an open letter..."The time has come to quit placating the masses with subprime this and that to still their spirits. Please fulfill your promises to represent them and their children with integrity, knowing the road ahead will be anything but easy, and that the temptation to allow business as usual to continue at the Fed will be enormous."