Census Bureau

Altanta Fed GDP Forecast Tumbles To 1.4% To Justify Fed's Downbeat Outlook On Economy

Some time in the second week of February, when the market was tumbling on, among other things, fears of a U.S. recession, the Atlanta Fed was scrambling to give the all clear signal on the US economy when it surprised watchers by releasing a far stronger than consensus Q1 GDP nowcast of 2.7%. Since then things have once again not gone quite as planned, and following the latest flurry of poor economic data, the Atlanta Fed just confirmed that the current US economy is about as weak as it was when the Atlanta Fed first started estimating it at the start of February with a paltry 1.2% forecast.

The Chart Every 25-Year-Old Should Ignore

There are two primary reasons Millennials aren’t saving like they should. The first is the lack of money to save, the second is the lack of trust in Wall Street.

There Is No Spending Growth

Since 2005, 44% of retailers, on average, beat their same store estimates each month. In February, only 14.3% did...

Visualising America's "Irrelevant" Exports & Imports

The U.S. Census Bureau recently released its data on U.S. trade in goods by selected countries and world region for 2015. Based on the data, the U.S. exported over $1.5 trillion and imported over $2.2 trillion in goods throughout 2015. This leaves leaves the U.S. with a negative balance of $735 billion! So the next time someone comes on TV and proclaims that the collapse in world trade volumes is irrelevant to the US equity market and US economy... perhaps point them in this direction.

The Tragedy Of California's Public Pensions

“by [any] measure, California’s Big Three public pensions are dangerously underfunded, putting current and future taxpayers at risk.... those relying on public pensions for their retirement are not only going to be requesting funds that simply aren’t there, they are going to be requesting funds from pension systems who have yet to face the third recession in 15 years."

US Economy – Slip-Sliding Away

It must be China. Or the weather, which is usually either too cold or to warm – somehow the weather is just never right for economic growth. Surely it cannot be another Fed policy-induced boom that is on the verge of going bust? Sorry, we completely forgot – the Fed is never at fault when the economy suffers a boom-bust cycle. "[An] oversold market can easily become more oversold when it keeps being inundated with evidence that economic conditions are not what they were thought to be."

Atlanta Fed Waits Until The Close To Reveal 0.6% Q4 GDP Estimate

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2015 is 0.6 percent on January 15, down from 0.8 percent on January 8. The forecast for fourth quarter real consumer spending growth fell from 2.0 percent to 1.7 percent after this morning's retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the industrial production release from the Federal Reserve.

If You Don't Agree With Obama You Are "Peddling Fiction"

Prosperity is not complicated. People figured out thousands of years ago that if you wanted to do well, you had to produce more than you consumed. But the American system is the exact opposite, favoring those who recklessly borrow and spend, rather than those who work hard and responsibly save. The President of the United States boldly accused everyone who doesn’t share his view as just making things up. In his words, “Anyone claiming that America’s economy is in decline is peddling fiction.” This is an extraordinary (and delusional) statement.

FBI Said To Probe If Hillary Clinton Violated Public Corruption Laws

In what may be the latest bad news for Hillary Clinton, whose various "previous life" scandals - from emails, to Clinton foundation donations - refuse to go away, the Hill reports, citing Fox News, that the FBI has expanded its investigation of Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of State to determine whether her Clinton Foundation work violated public corruption laws.