Central Banks

"The Dreaded Phase 4": What Happens When Credit Spreads Finally Rise

"Investing in Phase 3 is a dangerous game. Equity markets are moving into overshoot mode. This is nice while it lasts, but the Dreaded Phase 4 may not be too far away. This is when a global recession pushes both equities and credit into a bear market. Bubbles collapse... In 2007, Phase 3 lasted only 4 months."

David Stockman Warns "Don't Forget About The Red Swan"

"...during the last 19 months the Red Ponzi propagated a false upturn in the global economy that is already decisively reversing. This comes at the same time that central banks of the major developed world economies are finally bringing their printing presses to a halt... the morning-after toll will be especially severe and disruptive - this used to be called a 'depression'..."

These Are The Top 50 Hedge Fund Long And Short Positions

In an unexpected turnaround, for once hedge funds aren't sucking (if still underperforming both the S&P and the average mutual fund): for those who believe in piggybacking, here are the Top 50 most popular longs and shorts within the HF community.

Sell US, Buy Japan?

"...Yeah, yeah, I know. Japan’s demographics are terrible. Their debt to GDP is mind numbingly large. It certainly appears as if their ability to grow is hampered by many handicaps... But since when have fundamentals mattered?"

European Junk: "The Good-Looking Ones Are Always Bad News"

"I understand the attraction to shorting European junk. It’s easy to look dreamily at this chart and imagine spreads doubling to 5% without batting an eye... But there are a couple of problems with this trade..."

How Central Banking Increased Inequality

"The rise in income inequality over the past 30 years has to a significant extent been the product of monetary policies fueling a series of asset price bubbles. Whenever the market booms, the share of income going to those at the very top increases."

Orwell Or Kafka - Ken Rogoff's Crusade Against Cash Continues

"Harvard professor and chess grandmaster Kenneth Rogoff has said some pretty out there stuff before, in his role as self-appointed crusader against cash, but apparently he’s not done yet. In fact, he might just be getting started..."

Spitznagel: Why Cryptocurrencies Will Never Be Safe Havens

"Cryptocurrencies are a very important development, and an enormous step in the direction toward the decentralization of monetary power. This has enormously positive potential, and I am a big cheerleader for their success. But caveat emptor - thinking that we are magically creating new stores-of-value and thus a new safe haven is a profound mistake."

The Billionaire Bears Club

"The next crisis won’t start in the equity market, or even the high yield bond market. The next crisis will occur when Central Banks lose control of sovereign bond markets. I know that is exactly the opposite advice that the Billionaire Bears Club boys are giving you, but I don’t mind being on the other side of their trade... Economic weakness will just mean more printing, it is economic strength that should worry the equity bulls."