Central Banks

The Return Of Crisis

Let me be blunt: this next crash will be far worse and more dramatic than any that has come before. Literally, the world has never seen anything like the situation we collectively find ourselves in today. The so-called Great Depression happened for purely monetary reasons. Before, during and after the Great Depression, abundant resources, spare capacity and willing workers existed in sufficient quantities to get things moving along smartly again once the financial system had been reset. This time there’s something different in the story line...

Woeful 3 Year Auction: Tailing Yield, Plunging Bid To Cover, Sliding Indirects

One would imagine that in a market as skittish for risk as this one, that selling $24 billion in 3 Year paper would be if not as easy as pie, then as simple as last month's issuance, when not a cloud was visible when the Treasury sold 3 Year paper. One would be wrong, because moments ago the US Treasury managed to sell precisely that amount in February 2019 paper, however at a notable concession to the When Issued, with the high yield of 0.844% tailing the When Issued by 0.7 bps, while the Bid to Cover of 2.742 was the lowest since July of 2009.

It's Not Just China And Oil Anymore: Here Are The Two New Concerns Weighing On Risk

The year continues to be bruising for risk assets and recent attempts at stabilisation have been unsuccessful. After a mild rebound, equities and US credit spreads are again close to their year’s worst levels. In addition to the initial concerns about China and energy, two new issues further weigh on risk sentiment: the slowdown in US growth momentum and the tightening of financial conditions especially in European financial credit.

 

Frontrunning: February 9

  • Investors dump stocks (Reuters)
  • Global Bond Rally Near `Panic' Level With Japan Yield Below Zero (BBG)
  • Global Growth Fears Hit Bank Stocks (WSJ)
  • GOP Race for Second in New Hampshire Intensifies (WSJ)
  • N.H. Primary: Where Each 2016 Candidate Needs to Place to Build Momentum (WSJ)

"People In The Market For Many, Many Years Have Been Replaced By An Algorithm"

“I don’t think there’s a whole lot from my generation that are still in the industry"..."The business has to be downsized,” said Keith Underwood, a foreign-exchange consultant who ended a 25-year trading career, including at Lloyds Banking Group Plc, in 2014. But it’s not easy “for people who have been in a market for many, many years to see that they’ve been replaced by an algorithm.”

Either Banks Are Cheap... Or The Market's Gonna Crash

Simply put, either large cap Financials are cheap, or the entire U.S. equity market is still overpriced. Their precipitous decline year to date means markets fear they are both the transmission mechanism for a global slowdown/recession to come and a primary victim of that event.

JPMorgan Unveils The "Bogey" For NIRP In The US

"it seems reasonable to judge that the Fed’s current political situation is more parlous than is the case among its overseas counterparts. For all of the above reasons, we believe the hurdle for NIRP in the US is quite high, and we would need to see recession-like conditions before the Fed seriously considered this option."

Momo Bad News: JPM's Quant Guru Kolanovic Confirms Tech Bubble Has Burst... Again

"The biases of momentum investing and passive indexation have resulted in valuation distortions across assets as well as equity segments including Technology. Over the past years this trend has picked winning assets, sectors, and stocks often with less regard to fundamental valuation and more regard to momentum and extrapolated growth. We believe that 2016 may result in a reversion of this trend.... Even if this rebalancing comes as a result of market volatility and broader equity declines, long term it will benefit capital markets and the efficient allocation of capital."

Steve Keen Exposes Our Dysfunctional Monetary System

We are hostage to a dysfunctional monetary system, run by people who don’t understand how it works in the first place. No wonder the global economy is in the doldrums, and finance markets are having dyspeptic attacks.