Central Banks

In China 1300 Hedge Funds "Did Not Fight The Central Bank" And Are Now Liquidating

Just like 13F clones end up getting burned more often than not, so too unfortunately for the Chinese copycats, an endorsement from the equity market’s savior has done nothing to ensure outsized returns. In fact, as Bloomberg adds, it was just the opposite - the stock picks have trailed the broader market. The 46 companies that reported the agency as a top 10 shareholder in the past two months lost an average 29 percent since the announcement, versus a 21 percent drop for the Shanghai Composite Index.

Will They Or Won't They? Five Fed Scenarios & The Market Impact

Tomorrow's FOMC decision is the dominant topic for investors and traders across all asset classes, with FX, perhaps, the most sensitive to perceived changes (and instigator of trades via carry). As Credit Suisse details, FX volatility remains notably elevated and along with the uncertain flows surrounding so-called "risk parity" trading strategies, and the fact that 2y Treasury yields at around 0.80% are at their highest levels since 2011 - despite the less than 30% chance of a Fed hike priced in for tomorrow - only adds to the sense of uncertainty about the Fed's reaction function. In this light, how do we see the various possibilities that could emerge from tomorrow's FOMC? Here are Credit Suisse's 5 scenarios...

Lloyd Blankfein: "The Image Of Trump With His Finger On The Button Blows My Mind"

Blankfein's biggest nightmare? "The image of Trump "with his finger on the button blows my mind," he added, drawing laughter from the audience." Surely a far scarier prospect for Blankfein and his peers is coming to Washington after the next crash and demanding another bailout, and coming back empty handed.

The Truly Stupid Case For More ZIRP

"Every day brings another reason why the Federal Reserve should hold off before raising interest rates... First and foremost there was the recent plunge in stock prices."

Will The Fed Pick A Winning Combination?

The Fed may have noble mandates to help the real economy, but it will in the end always decide to do what’s best for Wall Street banks. And these banks could well make a huge killing off a rate hike. They can profit from trouble and volatility in emerging markets as well as domestic markets, provided they’re well-positioned. Given that they’ve had ample time, and it’s hard to answer the question who else is in a good position, we may have an idea which wind the wind will blow. Increasing credibility for the Fed and increasing profits for Wall Street banks. Might be a winning combination. And if Yellen is realistic about the potential for a recovery in the American economy, why would she not pick it?

 

Ron Paul: Congress Is 'Fiddling' While The Economy Burns

Reports that the official unemployment rate has fallen to 5.1 percent may appear to vindicate the policies of easy money, corporate bailouts, and increased government spending. However, even the mainstream media has acknowledged that the official numbers understate the true unemployment rate. Disappointingly, but not surprisingly, few in Washington, DC acknowledge that America’s economic future is endangered by excessive spending, borrowing, taxing, and inflating. Instead, Congress continues to waste taxpayer money on futile attempts to run the economy, run our lives, and run the world.

Which Asset Class Will Be Most Impacted By A Rate Hike?

Going into Thursday, everyone - and we do mean everyone - is scrambling to predict which asset classes are most susceptible to a Fed hike. Amid the rampant confusion, BofAML asked fund managers to weigh in. Here are the results.

The Next Financial Crisis Won't Be Like The Last One

It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets. The core paradox - that central banks can't control both domestic and global FX markets with the same set of policies - cannot be resolved by printing $1 trillion, or even $5 trillion. Printing money to fix one problem leads to another set of problems that are only made worse by additional money-printing.