Central Banks

This 'Market' Discounts Nothing Except Monetary Cocaine

In short, the market is not trading on a rebound in GDP, revenue growth or a breakout of already elevated profit margins. It’s just high on one more dose of monetary cocaine that in short order will prove to have been not even that.

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

After Eight Years Of "Hope And Change", Voters Are Angry

Eight years ago, Barbara Conley was one of the millions of Americans swept up in Barack Obama's promises of hope and change when he accepted the Democratic nomination at a packed football stadium a few miles from her home in the Denver suburbs. But those optimistic days are unrecognizable to Conley now.

European Central Banks Disclose Which Corporate Bonds They Own

Earlier today, alongside the ECB's latest weekly disclosure of total corporate bond purchases under the CSPP program, which as of July 15 had risen by approximately €2 billion to €10.427 billion, suggesting a daily purchase pace of about €400 million, Europe's various regional central banks also disclosed for the first time the CUSIP list of which specific bonds they had purchased over the past month and a half.

The Cleveland Fed Wants You To Know That Its President Does Not Advocate Helicopter Money

It appears that the Cleveland Fed got an earful for ABC's report which originally disclosed Mester's "qualified support" for helicopter money (and anyone else who touched on it) and overnight we have been bombarded by emails from the same regional Fed, which urgentl want our readers to know that "Mester did not in any way advocate helicopter money."

Grant Williams: The Rising Danger Of A Bidless Market

"Through life, behavior is reinforced by consequences. And since 2008, everything possible has been done to avoid the consequences... and now we've got a bunch of people now who are essentially paid to believe central banks...we will see all the unintended consequences of these actions come out when people want to hit a bid and there's not a bid there. It could get ugly."

Morgan Stanley: "To Make Up For A 10% Drop In The S&P, Treasury Yields Would Need To Go… Negative"

Take a 60/40 portfolio constructed today from the S&P 500 and US Treasuries. To make up for a 10% decline in the equity market, Treasury yields would need to go… negative. Not impossible, but certainly a high hurdle! We think investors in European and Japanese bonds are seeing a clear example of this dilemma, with Bunds and JGBs simply unable to rally enough to offset recent equity market declines.

"Janet Yellen Sounds Like A Fumbling Idiot No Matter What She Does"

"No matter what Alan Greenspan did he was taken as a genius. Whereas 20 years later, Janet Yellen sounds like a fumbling idiot no matter what she does. All her actions come across as desperate because the credibility has been blown away. The Fed has been forced into action and by being forced into action it has only highlighted what the Fed can’t do."

With "Stock Valuations At Extremes" Goldman's Clients Are Asking Just One Question

This week the S&P 500 surged to a new record high of 2164 this week while the 10-year US Treasury yield touched an all-time low of 1.37%. As a result Goldman, and especially its clients, are stumped. As chief equity strategist David Kostin admits, they have one burning question. As Kostin puts it, they "are struggling to reconcile how extreme valuations of both assets can co-exist."

Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Unfortunately, for Janet, this is the 'trap'. The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”  The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.