Central Banks

Global Stocks Levitate Despite Ongoing Oil Weakness; China Stocks Jump After Easing Margin Debt

At the same time as the PBOC was cautioning about the dangers of excess debt (just as it injected a record amount of loans into the financial system), China's central bank warned about dangers from a stock market bubble, and perhaps just to assure the bubble gets even bigger, at the same time China eased on margin debt limits, in the process sending Chinese stocks soaring higher by 2.2%, and pushing the Shanghai Composite over 3000 for the first time in months as China now appears set to attempt another housing bubble "soft landing" while at the same time restarting its housing bubble.

JPM: The Short Squeeze Is Largely Over

"Three quarters of the previous selling of equity ETFs during January and February has been reversed in just three weeks. CTAs appear to have fully covered their shorts. Indeed both CTAs and Discretionary Macro hedge fund managers appear to be close to neutral right now... we conclude that the short covering phase that started a month ago is very advanced."

NIRP Hail Mary

Negative interest rates are a tax! Not a traditional tax paid to the government, but an expense paid, on savings. Years of policy designed to encourage spending and discourage savings is likely reaching the end game; the point where those exhibiting prudence must be punished to keep the game going.  At some point, and likely soon, central bankers will be forced to realize the efficacy of lowering interest rates is vanishing and is hindering achievement of their goals. When this occurs a paradigm shift in the way monetary policy is conducted will likely occur. Investors that understand this dynamic, and what it portends, will be in a much better position to protect and profit from the asset price adjustments that lie ahead.

A Strange Pattern Emerges When Trading The US Dollar In 2016

As Bank of America's FX quant strategist writes, "ahead of the Fed, the USD was already trending lower against 8 out of 9 G10 currency pairs with GBP being the only exception. The surprisingly-dovish Fed has only further accelerated the decline in the US dollar. The decline started in late January and has occurred during the critical local New York trading hours. The US hours downtrend looks likely to continue in the near future."

Mystery Of New York Fed Robbery Has Central Banks Asking Who's Next

From the NY Fed, to a local branch of a commercial bank in the Philippines, to a remittances company, to three casinos, and then... nothing. A cold trail. Who's at the end of the central bank heist rabbit hole? And do any of the people along the paper trail actually know who's pulling the strings? 

This Is How Venezuela Exported 12.5 Tonnes Of Gold To Switzerland On March 8, 2016 Via Paris

Approximately 50 tonnes of BCV gold has been exported from Venezuela to Switzerland within the first 10 weeks of 2016. How much longer can this outflow continue? This gold is being exported by the BCV in order to participate in swaps (or maybe even outright sales) in order to provide external financing to the Venezuelan Government. The fact that the gold is being picked up by Brinks Switzerland suggests it is being brought to a Swiss gold refinery. The main reason gold is sent to Switzerland is so that it can be refined or recast.

Goldman Throws Up On Global Easing Party, Warns US Economy Close To Overheating

"One interpretation of the recent moves by the major central banks is that they represent a coordinated attempt to ease global financial conditions while avoiding upward pressure on the US dollar," Goldman writes. Yellen, the bank says, was more than happy to participate - this time. But as the US economy hits full employment, the Fed's calculus will change. Then come the hikes. Or so says the Squid.

Greek Banks Admit To Charging Customers To Exchange Big Bills For Smaller Ones

Earlier this month, a reader noticed something rather disturbing. Piraeus Bank seemed to have added a new line item in one of its reports and that new line item appeared to suggest that the bank was set to charge customers for exchanging €500 notes for smaller bills. Sure enough, two weeks later, our suspicions are confirmed.

The New New 'Deal' - "Markets Are Too Important To Be Left To Investors"

In the same way that FDR had an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US labor market, so does the US Executive branch today (regardless of what party holds the office) have an existential political interest in generating inflation and preventing volatility in the US capital markets. Transforming Wall Street into a political utility was an afterthought for FDR; today the relative importance of the labor markets and capital markets have completely switched positions. Today, the quote would be "markets are too important to be left to investors."

The Two Worlds Of Precious Metals: East And West

Decades of relentless brainwashing in the West have convinced the vast majority of our populations that there is no longer a place or role in our modern economy for Perfect Money. What is continually forgotten beneath the veneer of our cultural arrogance is that the rest of the world, and the vast majority of humanity’s population, have a fundamentally opposite perspective regarding the world’s only Perfect Money. In the East, China and Russia are relentlessly accumulating gold, observing a “rule” which is now forgotten by the arrogant oligarchs of the Corrupt West: the Golden Rule. He who has the gold makes the rules.