"Today, six and a half years after the collapse of Lehman, there is a Bigger Short cooking. That Bigger Short is long-term claims on paper money, i.e., bonds."
What do we really know?
The Man in the Moon studies the pathology of Earth’s global economy and markets from a distance where there’s no gravitational pull towards empiricism or consensus. His findings: 1) the global economy is over-leveraged, fragile, stagnating, and increasingly centrally managed; 2) capital markets and asset performance have been captured by the perception of the ongoing value of money, and so; 3) unconventional investment analysis is prudent.
Markets are not cheap by any measure. If earnings growth continues to wane or interest rates rise, the bull market thesis will collapse as "expectations" collide with "reality." This is not a dire prediction of doom and gloom, nor is it a "bearish" forecast. It is just a function of how markets work over time. This time is "not different." The only difference will be what triggers the next valuation reversion when it occurs.
Another round of the Crisis is coming and the Powers That Be know it. This is why they’re preparing by buying up Gold bullion.
A day after the 2 Year auction surprised with solid demand all around, moments ago the US Treasury issued $35 billion in 5 Year paper which also came stronger than some had expected, pricing at a yield of 1.56%, 0.6 bps through the 1.566% When Issued. Like in yesterday's auction, the yield was the highest of 2015. The Bid To Cover dipped modestly, dwon from 2.56 to 2.46, and in line with the 2.47 average.
Something BIG is afoot: we are seeing multi-decade breakouts in numerous currency pairs.
Which country will be next to join the ‘bring our gold home’ movement?
Bill Gross just revealed another aspect of trading in the new (or any) normal: one may get the direction and the timing with laser-like precision (as Gross did on his Bund trade), but if said trade is excecuted in a way where the inherent "coiled spring" volatility of the Gross-defined "new normal" blows up the trade structure, the losses will make one wish never to have had the correct idea in the first place.
"The price of it swings, but on the other hand it is a 100 percent guarantee from legal and political risks." - Dmitry Tulin, manager of Russia's monetary policy.
A little over two years ago, in the middle of April 2013, there was a gold crash that came seemingly out of nowhere. Worse, for gold investors anyway, that crash was repeated just a few months later. Where gold had stood just shy of $1,800 an ounce at the start of QE3, those cascades had brought the metal price down to just $1,200. For many, especially orthodox economists, it heralded the end of the “fear trade” and meant, unambiguously, that the recovery had finally at long last arrived. However, gold price activity since QE3 has been a warning, and a big one, not cause for victory celebrations.
The Shanghai Composite is on the verge of 5,000 and has more than doubled in the past year but this may just be the beginning. The reason: if the Chinese stock bubble bursts, that will be the beginning of the end of the greatest con game in history.
"Right now, we’re living in a make believe world. Debt can’t be the main source of growth. Without a pick-up in final demand a lot of bad debts are out there. As long as you have excess capacity in the commodity production you have bad loans throughout the system. That means you have governments who can’t repay their debt without selling new loans and all their bad loans are funded by the central banks.... I think a global recession is inevitable...You just can’t devalue your way to prosperity. As long as the number of shares keeps declining, stock prices are going to go up and nobody cares [but] in the long term there has to be a major correction."
In an important interview with Reuters in 2012, John Butler suggested that if one country - he cited Russia - were to back its currency with gold it could cause a 20% collapse in the dollar in just 24 hours. In order to stabilise the currency and in an attempt to preserve the reserve currency status of the dollar, the U.S. would be forced against its will to back its currency with gold.
"If, as the ECB's Coeuré said, you are concerned about the rapidity of the market moves, it seems odd, in our view, to give everyone an incentive to get longer today only to sell again tomorrow."