Central Banks

Japan's Top Credit Analyst Predicts 30Y Treasury Yield Plunging To Zero In 2 Years

In a time when one strategist after another is pointing to the latest rebound in rates and bond yields, and furiously declaring - to anyone who cares to listen - that this is it, yields are now and forever done going lower, Toshihiro Uomoto, Nomura Holdings’s chief credit strategist, in a report issued overnight, forecast that the yield on 30-year US Treasuries could plunge to zero in two years as a result of yield-starved "Japanese money" flooding the US and chasing returns of US Treasuries.

White House Caught Secretly Airlifting $1.7 Billion US Taxpayer Cash To Tehran To Ensure Iran Nuclear Accord Success

What Donald Trump has proclaimed the worst deal ever made, may just have become worst-er. The shocking truth behind the US-Iran nuclear deal, as WSJ reports, is the Obama Administration airlifted $1.7bn of cash in 'compromise' payments (read - bribe) to Tehran to ensure the release of 4 captured sailors coincidentally the same weekend as the signing of the nuclear deal.

"It Takes A Village To Maintain A Dangerous Financial System"

"...the motivations and actions (or inaction) of individuals in the financial system, governments, central banks, academia and the media that collectively contribute to the persistence of a dangerous and distorted financial system and inadequate, poorly designed regulations.  The underlying problem is a powerful mix of distorted incentives, ignorance, confusion, and lack of accountability. Willful blindness seems to play a role in flawed claims by the system’s enablers that obscure reality and muddle the policy debate."

Trump Says It's Time To Sell Stocks, Warns Of "Very Scary Scenarios" For Investors

Now that we are exactly three months away from the November 8 election, if Trump wants to really boost his electoral chances, a market crash right now be certainly most welcome by his campaign. Which may be why Trump today urged his supporters to get out of equities as "interest rates set by the Federal Reserve are inflating the stock market" and warned of "very scary scenarios" for investors.

There Is No Asset Bubble?

Does an asset bubble currently exist? Ask anyone and they will tell you “NO.” However, maybe it is exactly that tacit denial which might just be an indication of its existence.

A "1 In 10,000 Year Event": JPM Head Quant Explains Why The S&P Refuses To Sell Off

"... one would expect this scenario to happen once every ~10,000 years. The fact that we see this type of behavior demonstrates market inefficiency—in this case driven by hedging of option exposure. Quite literally, the market was pinned. Over the past 3 weeks, the amount of call options exceeding put options (in terms of gamma exposure) averaged almost $40bn (per 1%), which is the largest call to put gamma imbalance ever observed."

"This Whole Mania Will End Tragically" - Impermanence & Full-Cycle Thinking

"This whole speculative mania will end tragically. How did we not learn this from 2000-2002, or 2007-2009, or the collapse of every other mania in history? My sense is that it’s a mistake to assume that yield-seeking hasn’t been fully exhausted across every class of securities...For those who insist that there is always a bull market somewhere, I would suggest that the most likely bull market to emerge here will be in bear market assets."

JPM Just Joined Goldman In Calling A Market Top: Here's Why

Yesterday, it was Goldman who said to "sell" stocks for the next 3 months. Today it is JPM's turn which urges clients not to "overstay their welcome" in cyclical stocks, saying that "medium-term upside for equities is limited and equities are likely to keep underperforming most other asset classes" before concluding that "longer term picture is not very attractive; one should use current rally to ultimately sell into."

NY Fed Finds 15% Of Americans Have Negative Net Worth; Student Loans Contibute To Record US Wealth Inequality

"There has been much discussion about the growth in wealth inequality over the past three decades. Given the importance of student debt in explaining negative household wealth, it is likely that the steady growth in student debt and borrowing, combined with the very slow rate of student loan repayment we have documented elsewhere, has materially contributed and will continue to contribute to negative household wealth and wealth inequality"

Satyajit Das Slams Policymaker Ignorance: "QE-Forever Cycle" Means Catastrophe Is Inevitable

"Policymakers have chosen to ignore the central issue of debt as they try to resuscitate activity," warns Satyajit Das in a shocking Op-Ed in today's FT, and with global central banks now printing $180 billion a month (and growing), "the global economy may now be trapped in a QE-forever cycle," confirming von Mises prescription that "there is no means of avoiding the final collapse..."