Central Banks

Dollar Shortage Goes Mainstream: When Will The Fed Confess?

We, and the rest of the world, are patiently hanging around, waiting to see if the Federal Reserve wakes up to what’s happening to dollar liquidity, and the threat it poses to the global economy and to its own (glacially slow) tightening cycle.

Obstacles To Trump's "Growth" Plans

Mr. Trump rather unfortunately may find that his chief task will not be the management of this Great Re-orientation, but more prosaically, fending off the headwinds which he will face as he hauls on the tiller of the economy. In short, there is a real prospect that his ambitious economic “remake” may well be prematurely punctured by financial crisis. These headwinds will not be of his making, and for the main part, represent the accumulation of an earlier monetary doctrine which will fetter the President-elect into a small corner from which any chosen exit will carry adverse implications.

Helicopter Money Has Arrived... And Nobody Noticed: Here's Why

"US will likely implement serious fiscal stimulus but without Fed QE. Europe will have no meaningful fiscal stimulus but lots of QE. Japan is a hybrid as it will have monetary policy that easily allows for more expansionary domestic fiscal policy. However there is some evidence to suggest that we’ll effectively have cross border helicopter money."

Haven't We Done This Before?

The fact that stocks are at record highs as the “dollar” disrupts still another time is as regular as the seasons. Stocks are fueled by hope which takes time for the “dollar” to disprove through first its own systems and then full economy; as it has time and again.

Deutsche Bank Warns "The Plate-Spinning Era" Is Over

"2016 has been a landmark year as we seem to have reached a point where the faster the plates are spun the more the unintended short-term consequences... the global financial system remains broken and extremely fragile. Secular stagnation trends are everywhere. The world has too big a debt burden for the current growth environment.."

"What If Market Consensus Is Wrong" - A Hedge Fund Ponders The Alternative

"What if consensus is wrong: what if rates are rising due to the end of Quantitative Easing and not because of reflation/escape velocity on growth? Rates then rise without growth, perhaps even without much inflation. Indeed, rates started rising back in August, on momentous shifts in policy by BoJ (forced by capacity constraints and collateral damage). Such scenario is not good for equities, contrary to what currently believed by markets."

Welcome To The "Melt-Up"

As Wile E. Coyote always discovers as he careens off the edge of the cliff, “gravity is a bitch.”

"Everything Is Not Awesome" - Don't Be The Turkey

"Things have not suddenly become awesome over the course of the past week... It is very easy to be sucked into the gushingly positive narratives and often unsupported narratives put forth by the financial media. This is particularly true when the move in asset prices can make minutes seem like days and hours seem like months. Excessive market valuations, weak internal measures, and a deteriorating backdrop has historically been a “wicked brew” for investor outcomes."