Gold remains the asset Wall Street loves to hate. It is currently under pressure due to the recent increase in rate hike odds and there was definitely a need for stale long positions to be cleared out. When we see the mainstream gang up on gold so quickly though, we tend doubt that the bears will be correct. Of course we have no crystal ball either, but we remain convinced that the monetary experiments of recent years will end quite badly.
It is critical for the markets to “hang on” to current support at the previous breakout highs. A failure to do so will put the markets back into the previous trading range that has existed going back to 2014.
"Anti-global sentiment has been the loudest message of the current presidential campaign in the US. The most likely origin has been a buildup a buildup of discontent due to failure to develop a convincing response to economic slowdown in the last years. This has recently emerged as the main theme of public discourse. Current presidential campaign has highlighted to what extent the Change is as necessary as it is politically impossible."
"These distorted markets are increasingly hostage to unfathomable political risk...the real danger in finance is the not one that tends to be discussed: that banks will topple over (as they did in 2008). It is, rather, the threat that investors and investment groups will be wiped out by wild price swings from an unexpected political shock..."
The price of 'real assets' (real estate, commodities, collectibles) relative to 'financial assets' (stocks & bonds) are at their lowest since 1926, and, as BofAML's Michael Hartnett suggests "buying humiliation and selling hubris" as investors are being forced to discount higher inflation and interest rates, as protectionism & redistribution themes are also aimed at boosting Main Street at the expense of Wall Street.
World stocks started the week in the red Monday as the dollar touched a 7-month high and U.S. and European government bond yields climbed to their highest since June following the Friday speeches by Eric Rosengren and Janet Yellen which hinted the Fed's next step could be to pursue a steepening of the TSY yield curve the same as the BOJ.
"If one were concerned about the historically low 10-year Treasury and commercial real estate capitalization rates, perhaps because of potential financial stability concerns, the balance sheet composition could be adjusted to steepen the yield curve." - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren
The Bank of England’s inept monetary policies under Mark Carney’s governorship seem certain to expose the fragility of fiat sterling to wider public attention and skepticism. If the consequences weren’t so serious, we might thank him for unwittingly toppling the status quo. But the inevitable crisis, many times worse than that faced in 1975, cannot be embraced even by the most extreme financial masochist. This is why people in Britain and America will increasingly find solace in gold.
In June, oil was still down 20% relative to a year prior. Last month, that year-over-year change had already risen to 0%. And if prices hold at current levels, oil will be up 45% at year-end. To repeat for emphasis, that’s -20% YoY to +45% YoY in the space of six months."