Central Banks

Tyler Durden's picture

2016 Is An Easy Year To Predict





No year is ever easy to predict, if only because if it were, that would take all the fun out of life. But still, predictions for 2016 look quite a bit easier than other years. This is because a whole bunch of irreversible things happened in 2015 that were not recognized for what they are, either intentionally or by ‘accident’. Things that will therefore now be forced to play out in 2016, when denial will no longer be an available option. Simply put, 2016 will be the year when a lot of ‘underlying wealth’ evaporates.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Safe On The Sidelines - 405 Days And Counting





The S&P 500 closed at 2052 on November 18,2014. That was 405 days ago, and despite the rips and dips in the interim the broad market average has gone nowhere.

 
Gold Standard Institute's picture

Falling Interest Causes Falling Profits





Most people assume that prices move as a result of changes in the money supply. Instead, let’s look at the effect of changes in interest.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

2015 - The Year Of FX Reserve Rundowns (Or Playing The "Fool's Game")





2015 was the year of considerable FX drawdown as desperate EM central banks attempted to rescue themselves from reality. As Barry Eichengreen noted, "Intervening to support an exchange rate that’s fundamentally overvalued is a fool’s game and a no-win situation, akin to a sovereign attempting to sustain an unsustainable debt burden rather than yielding to inevitable restructuring."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Odds Are Never In Your Favor





Even though the odds are never in our favor, there is still hope. Not everyone has to make the extreme sacrifice in order to contribute to the revolution. There are thousands of small acts which will weaken the establishment: "Don’t be a slave to debt. Live beneath your means and accumulate some physical silver and gold. Don’t vote for candidates selected by the vested interests. Spread the message of liberty and freedom to anyone who will listen. Think critically. Do not trust your government. Prepare for the inevitable collapse of this rotten, fetid, corrupt paradigm."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Howard Marks Warns "Investor Behavior Has Entered A Zone Of Imprudence"





"Security prices are not low. I wouldn’t say high, but full. So people are thinking cautiously but they’re acting bullish and they’re behaving in a pro-risk fashion. While investor behavior hasn’t sunk to the depths seen just before the crisis, in many ways I feel it has entered the zone of imprudence... The market is not an accommodating machine. It will not go where you want it to go just because you need it to go there."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Death Of Decoupling





Despite the increasing perception of policy divergence between The US and the rest of the world, it appears 'factors beyond the control of the central planners' has stymied hope for any US-based sparking of global growth. Between The Fed's liquidity withdrawal and the deflationary tsunami from an emerging world buried in credit-fueled mal-investment, it is increasingly clear that central banks have lost control and everything is now going down together. As Citi's Willem Buiter recently noted, "everything's failed" so how long before we see the money drop?

 
EconMatters's picture

Currency Markets offer some of the Best Trading Opportunities





Imagine if Casinos told you in advance what the next card from the deck in a game of Blackjack was going to be?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Schizophrenic 2 Year Auction Results In Huge Short Squeeze Despite Slumping Fundamentals





When the When Issued data hit minutes ahead of the auction pricing, we were expecting a number well through the 1.073% When Issued.This is precisely what happened as the Treasury confirmed moments ago when it announced it had sold $26 billion in 2 Year notes at a yield of 1.056%, a whopping 1.7 bps through the When Issued: just like that, the short squeeze worked again.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Even The Big Banks Now Admit It: "This Is How The Fed's 'Massive Manipulation' Broke The Market"





"Essentially central banks, by unfairly inflating asset prices have compressed risk like a spring to unfairly tight levels. Unfortunately, the market is aware the price of risk is not correct, but they can’t fight it, and everyone is forced to crowd into the same trade. By manipulating markets they have also reduced investors’ inherent conviction by rendering fundamentals less relevant."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Economy - A Year-End Overview





It becomes ever more tempting to conclude that the timing of the Fed’s rate hike was really quite odd, even from the perspective of the planners...

 
Phoenix Capital Research's picture

The Fed's Academic-Based Theories Are Creating a BRUTAL Economic Reality





This is what happens when the Fed’s academic-based nonsense collides with economic realities: perversions of capital that lead to massive bubbles and eventually even more massive crises.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

12 Reasons Why One Advisor Is Betting Treasurys, Not Stocks, Is The Investment Of 2016





According to a recent contrarian call by  Prerequisite Capital Management, the "US Treasury Bond Market is potentially set up for a substantial move higher over the next year or two." Here are the reasons why.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Everything Central Banks Have Tried Has Failed: According To Citi's Buiter Just One Thing Remains





"If, as seems possible, the ECB will increase, in H1 2016, the scale of its monthly asset purchases from €60bn to, say, €75bn, and if these additional purchases are concentrated on public debt, the euro area will benefit from a ‘backdoor’ helicopter money drop –something long overdue."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Fed Has Created A "Monster" And Just Made A "Dangerous Mistake," Stephen Roach Warns





"By now, it’s an all-too-familiar drill. After an extended period of extraordinary monetary accommodation, the US Federal Reserve has begun the long march back to normalization. A majority of financial market participants applaud this strategy. In fact, it is a dangerous mistake."

 
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