Central Banks

There is no shortage of money in the world. Thanks to global Central Banks' extreme activism money supply has exploded. Since August 2011, the Fed has been less of a full-time player in this effort but in passing the baton, the rest of the world did not let them down with most notably the ECB having taken over with its own version of free-money printing for much of the first quarter - driving the ratio of outside (central-bank-driven) money relative to inside (the bank themselves creating money via credit) to record highs as a stealth nationalization of credit is underway (though as we noted earlier this morning - the transmission mechanism is not working). So where oh where is all that hard-earned free-money going? The story bifurcates here. In the US, non-financial corporates have grown their war-chests as high as they have ever been (and continue to do so) after being burned by short-term financing stresses and knowing (despite all outward media appearances) that the next abyss is potentially around the corner (given real-life growth estimates becoming more and more binary/extreme as opposed to normalized with a range). In Europe, the 'excess' has flowed to the core driving, as Sean Corrigan notes, what some surveys suggest is a consumer and housing boom (read mal-allocation of capital once again) in the decade-long stagnant German real-estate market. All that extra cash, however, while helping revenues and margins for non-financial corporates in the US has left wage growth languishing. So the sad reality of the Keynesian 'multiplier' dogma is that rather than garbage-in, garbage-out - it is freshly printed money-in, nothing-out-to-the-real-economy as each actor in the game becomes increasingly driven by a sense of self-preservation. Is it any wonder that energy/raw materials prices (as evidenced most recently by Whirlpool's comments this morning) are rising when firms are awash in cash? But of course, as the old-saying goes, a-biflation-a-day-keeps-the-Fed-hawks-at-bay.

Fading Shiller and why. 

The ECB has found its hands tied: if it continues to monetize aggressively, inflation will surge and Germany will either leave the Euro or at the very least make life very, very difficult for the ECB and those EU members asking for bailouts.

After all, doing this would score MAJOR political points for both Merkel and Weidmann who have both come under fire for revelations that the Bundesbank has in fact put Germany on the hook for over €2 trillion via various back-door deals.

All you need to read.

Trading in Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s gold ETF in India surged almost 11 fold, leading an advance in gold securities, as investors bought gold to mark the auspicious Hindu festival of Akshaya Tritiya. Volumes in GS Gold BeEs, India’s biggest exchange-traded fund backed by gold, was 937,816 units on the National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. at 4:54 p.m. in Mumbai, up from 85,376 units yesterday and more than the 101,914 average daily volumes in the last six months through yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. This is significant volume. Each unit represents about 1 gram of physical gold and therefore 937,816 units is the equivalent of some 29,170 ounces of gold which at today’s prices is some $47 million of daily volume for just one gold ETF in India. The Goldman Sachs India gold ETF is just one of many new ETFs in India. Trading in Kotak Gold ETF jumped more than eightfold to 226,032 units. Gold demand in India, the world’s biggest importer, may climb as much as 25% to 15 metric tons on Akshaya this year, according to Rajesh Exports Ltd., the country’s biggest gold-jewelry exporter. Assets held by local gold funds reached a record 98.9 billion rupees ($1.87 billion) at the end of March, according to the Association of Mutual Funds in India. GS Gold BeEs had assets worth 29.6 billion rupees (some $563 million (USD)) as of March 31, data from the association showed. Trading in UTI-Gold Exchange Traded Fund climbed more than fivefold, while volumes in Reliance Gold ETF, the second-biggest fund, was up more than sixfold, data shows.

It's easy to expand the money supply and difficult to expand the actual production of real goods in the real world. Expanding the money supply and issuing debt that lacks collateral is just like printing quatloos on the desert island: you can print a million quatloos but that doesn't create a single additional coconut. If you print enough quatloos, then people will no longer accept them in exchange for coconuts. You will actually need a real coconut to exchange for fish. This is why Greek towns are reportedly reverting to barter, the exchange of real goods for other real goods. We can anticipate that silver and gold will soon enter the barter as means of exchange that can't be counterfeited or printed by wise-guys (central bankers).This is what happens when abstract representations, i.e. "money," vanish into thin air. Alternative systems of exchanging goods and services arise: actual goods are exchanged via barter, tangible concentrations of value that cannot be counterfeited such as gold and silver are used as a means of exchange, letters of credit or equivalent are traded and settled with tangible goods or gold/silver, and eventually, a means of exchange ("money") that is backed by tangible goods in the real world that can be trusted to actually represent the value being traded might enter the market. That which is phantom will vanish into thin air, while the real goods and services remain to be traded in the real world.

The EFSF 'firewall' issued EUR3 billion 7-year bonds this morning. It seems any time any European entity actually manages to issue debt, it is proclaimed as miraculous evidence of investor demand and comfort with these risks. In this case, we are told, via Bloomberg, that:

• *EFSF SAYS BOND ISSUE MET WITH STRONG DEMAND
• *EFSF SAYS SUPPORT FROM ASIA, CENTRAL BANKS, SOVEREIGN WEALTH

So the self-dealing continues to grow the ponzi ever bigger. However, what few will mention is that 10Y EFSF spreads (the risk premium over Bunds to hold these government-guaranteed exposed-to-Europe's-entrails) broke above 150bps today for the first time in over four months and are now over 35% higher than at the start of April. Success Indeed.

While gold demand from the western investors and store of wealth buyers has fallen in recent months, central bank demand continues to be very robust and this is providing strong support to gold above the $1,600/oz level. IMF data released overnight shows that Mexico added 16.8 metric tons of gold valued at about $906.4 million to its reserves in March. Russia continued to diversify its foreign exchange reserves and increased its gold reserves by about 16.5 tons according to a statement by its central bank on April 20. Other creditor nations with large foreign exchange reserves and exposure to the dollar and the euro including Turkey and Kazakhstan also increased their holdings of gold according to the International Monetary Fund data.Mexico raised its reserves to 122.6 tons last month when gold averaged $1,676.67 an ounce.Turkey added 11.5 tons, Kazakhstan 4.3 tons, Ukraine 1.2 tons, Tajikistan 0.4 ton, and Belarus 0.1 tonnes, according to the IMF. Ukraine, Czech Republic and Belarus also had modest increases in their gold reserves. Central banks are expanding reserves due to concerns about the dollar, euro, sterling and all fiat currencies.

Austerity is dead!  Long live Spending! Futures are up, Italian and Spanish bonds are up, CDS spreads on them are at least 10 bps tighter, and MAIN is 3 bps tighter on the day (though I have this feeling I better type fast as we are starting to fade off the best levels). Lots of little things seem to be contributing to the strength, TXU earnings, no economic data, auctions that raised the required money, etc., but there does also seem to be a belief that Germany finally “gets it”.  That Germany is finally going to relent on their demands for austerity. So “Austerity Now” may be over, but killing something that didn’t work, isn’t the same as solving the problem.  Going back to the norm that caused the problem in the first place, hardly seems like a solution either.  Currency reversion and/or debt restructuring will be the ultimate end-game.

Back in December, Goldman Sachs entered the fray of what has since become the most sensitive topic for Germans (courtesy of this particular exponentially rising chart), namely the German funding of Europe's current account via the TARGET2 balance. Since then much has been said, up to and including a letter that Jens Weidmann sent to Mario Draghi expressing a concern about the "net receivable" status of the German central bank vis-a-vis the periphery. Unfortunately, since then the Bundesbank added another nearly EUR100 billion in net deficit balance, which has hardly helped the German people sleep better at night. So in the meantime, one question has arisen: "how much more can the TARGET2 imbalances increase?" The scientific and, non-scientific answer, comes from Goldman Sachs: "a lot."

Here is the point; Bernanke thinks he can deal with this falling growth outlook and a deleveraging consumer by adding to QE to keep rates very low. I am not sure it will work and if it doesn’t yields could start to rise and the more he throws at it the more yields actually rise as vigilantes will fear pent up inflationary pressures. This is a potential disaster for central bankers and at some point the impact of QE may be proven limited. When it is the central banks will have shot the last bullet. Why is no one discussing this?

It's not as if this should come as a major surprise to ZeroHedge readers, but to hear officials from the Bank of England pointing out the sub-optimal nature of the financial system's information asymmetries is refreshing. Be it via any one of Andrew Haldane's three so-called arms-races (Returns - the past, Speed - the present, and Safety - the future), analogizing to the winner-takes-all 'sex-fest' blubberiest-optima of elephant seals and their 'extinction' implications, these socially 'bad' financial system outcomes (Leverage, HFT, and collateral and encumbrance) are channeled superbly by the comedic Brit. A must-watch to reassure one's self that some central bankers really get it as, unlike before, when nobody would touch on topics covered by ZeroHedge with a ten-foot-pole, at least they do now, if with a one-year delay.

All you need to read and some more.

The IMF meeting ended yesterday and leading world economies agreed to more than double the lending power of the IMF in an effort to protect the global economy from the euro zone contagion. This was still short of Lagarde’s $600 billion goal. The Netherlands  was drawn into the spotlight over the weekend when the government failed to agree on budget cuts, making elections nearly unavoidable and casting doubt on its support from future euro zone aid.  Investors will watch the China HSBC manufacturing survey at 1430 GMT as a measure of the conditions of the world’s 2nd largest economy.  The Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and its statement on monetary policy is given on April 25th.  The Bank of Japan meets on Friday and is expected to ease again. Trading is sluggish as the market waits for clues.

One of the biggest games in the Wall Street farce is the game of Beat the Number.