The build up took months... but then the whole mess came crashing down in one weekend. By then it was too late to get your money out...
It seems increasingly likely the next Global Financial Meltdown will arise in the FX/currency markets. The core paradox - that central banks can't control both domestic and global FX markets with the same set of policies - cannot be resolved by printing $1 trillion, or even $5 trillion. Printing money to fix one problem leads to another set of problems that are only made worse by additional money-printing.
Almost two weeks after we explained why any hope for a QQE boost by the BOJ is a myth, and that any increase in monetization will simply lead to a faster tapering and ultimately halt of Kuroda's bond purchases the market finally grasped this, when overnight the BOJ not only did not easy further as some - certainly the USDJPY - had expected, but kept its QE at the JPY80 trillion level and failed to offer any hints of further easing that many had hoped for, pushing the Nikkei down from up almost 400 point intraday to virtually unchanged and sending the USDJPY back under 120. JGBs also traded lower on concerns there may not be much more QE to frontrun.
Nahhh ... The Problem Is NOT ENOUGH Debt! </sarc>
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Major depressions do not occur overnight. They go in downward waves, interrupted at intervals by false recovery waves. But the collapse will continue, unstoppably. Like any house of cards, once it begins to actually fall, no further Band-Aids will stop the inevitable. So, what might that trigger be?
Everything is so wonderful that a rate hike would equate to saying the Fed has won. Seven years of ZIRP and a few selling periods when the Fed stopped POMO’s and QE injections, we can easily say with extreme confidence that the Fed won. And by won we mean didn’t ruin the system entirely. Except they did.
One of these days, the people of main street will rediscover their torches and pitchforks. But until they do, Goldman has apparently invented still another ruse to keep the Fed doing Wall Street’s bidding, and to thereby keep its wretched jihad against savers fully in force.
48 hours - that's how long it took Citi's chief economist Willem Buiter to issue a report which was just as dire as Daiwa's, but because Citigroup is much more reliant on keeping it traditionally bullish clients as happy as possible, one had to read between the lines to get to the bottom line. This is Citi's punchline: "A global recession starting in 2016, led by China is now our Global Economics team's main scenario. Uncertainty remains, but the likelihood of a timely and effective policy response seems to be diminishing."
The idea here is that since it costs relatively little to store physical cash (the cost of buying a safe), the Fed should be permitted to “tax” physical cash to force cash holders to spend it (put it back into the banking system) or invest it.
The UK Labor Party's new leader Jeremy Corbyn has, rather unsurprisingly, is making controversial headlines already. His appointment of John McDonnell - an outspoken opponent to the independence of central banks: "in the first week of a Labour government, democratic control of the major economic decisions would be restored by ending the Bank of England’s control over interest rates," - as shadow chancellor has been met with derision in the British press. Initially described as a "nutjob" by The Telegraph, McDonnell's 'plan' to close the deficit is simple - instead of cutting spending, he will dramatically raise taxes on businesses and the rich. The Telegraph then watered-down their perspective, we think, slamming McDonnell's policy as "cloud cuckoo land economics."
"The eagerly awaited Fed meeting is upon us. Regardless of the actual decision, we suggest that the market impact could end up being positive. If the Fed does raise rates, but at the same time reassures the market that this will be a gradual process, it would be received well. If, on the other hand, the Fed delays the move, this could be interpreted as a signal that the Fed is aware of and is responding to recent market concerns." - JPM
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While any moves in the US stock market ahead of Thursday are largely irrelevant, as only Yellen's statement in 4 days will unleash epic algo buying or short covering (yes, according to JPM the Fed statement is bullish no matter what), it is what happened in China that is concerning, because while we had expected Chinese stocks to go nowhere in particular now that index future trading volumes have plunged by 99% or perhaps rise on hopes of even more easing after the latest terrible economic data, the Shanghai Composite dropped 2.7%, but it was the retail darling Shenzhen Composite which tumbled 6.7% - its worst selloff since August 25, while China's Nasdaq, the ChiNext crashed -7.5%.
In the seven years since the world’s central banks responded to the financial crisis by slashing interest rates, more than a dozen banks in the advanced world have tried to raise them again. All have been forced to retreat.