Central Banks

Bill Blain: "Forget 'Super Thursday', Today Is About Central Banks"

"Despite the noise about tighter policy, the reality is global recovery remains lethargic and thin. It’s easy to argue the new normal economic reality does not require aggressive monetary policy – low rates and low inflation for ever! Today we have the Fed and the ECB in the frame. Both are likely to defuse their respective ticking taper/tightening bombs."

Something Changed In 2014

When it comes to the correlation between consumer confidence and global retail sales growth, the main driver behind a global economy that is predicated upon spending, said correlation broke spectacularly in 2014 for reasons that are not quite clear. 

Futures Flat, Market Anxiety Eased By European Bank Rescue

European and Asian stocks, as well as S&P futures were little changed ahead of "Super Thursday's" events which include the U.K. general election, Comey's testimony and the ECB policy decision. That however may change following a Bloomberg news report that the ECB is set to cut inflation forecasts through 2019 due to weaker energy prices, suggesting the "hawkish" ECB announcement some had expected tomorrow has been postponed.

BofA: "If Bonds Are Right, Stocks Will Drop Up To 20%"

"If the bond markets are right and growth slows, then we think earnings growth would likely return to the path seen in recent years. If we fade earnings growth back to zero in 2018/19 and keep markets on current 2018 multiples, we find 13% downside potential for equity markets."

"This Only Ends When The Bond Market Pukes"

"There will be rallies in bonds that you can trade, but over the long run, I have complete faith that governments and Central Banks will do what they do best - inflate away your hard earned money. Betting against them is betting against history… "

The Path To Inflation: "Helicopter Money"

The general view in inflation is dead, essentially forever. Maybe. Maybe not. The next recession won't be "fixed" with the central bank playbook of more free money for financiers.

JPMorgan Lists Five "Red Flags" That Point To A 10% Downside Correction

"US growth momentum has turned mixed, with a rollover in manufacturing indicators, credit, housing and car sales. US CESI is in negative territory, which was typically associated with more defensive market leadership. CESI has a good correlation with the S&P500  and points to 10%+ downside for stocks."