Gold buying surged to record levels in H1, 2016 due to increasing concerns about the political, economic and monetary outlook. In particular, deepening concerns about the negative interest rate money "madness" of central banks today.
One day after all three US indexes hit record highs for the first time since December 31, 1999, US equity index futures, European stocks and Asian equities are little changed after the Nikkei jumped on the back of a Yen weakness, while China reported disappointing economic data and the PBOC suggested that the flood of new debt is slowing which pushed Chinese stocks higher by 1.6% on hopes of more stimulus.
Stocks are very expensive. Bonds are insane. Bank rates are negative for many large investors. These trends are pretty clear - there will likely be more debt, more money printing, more capital controls, and more monetary insanity in the future...And if you understand them, the case for owning at least a small amount of gold is obvious.
The notion that something good might come out of a Trump policy elicits guffaws in certain economic circles. However, by insisting that the U.S. Treasury label China a “currency manipulator” and by promoting trade that is both free and “fair,” Mr. Trump may be laying the groundwork for a significant breakthrough in international monetary relations - one that could ultimately validate the rationale for an open global marketplace and restore genuine free trade as a vital component of economic growth.
While yesterday's 10Y auction was a stellar response to the woeful July showing, today's 30Y left a little to be desired. While today's issue of $15 billion in 30Y paper did print at a high yield of 2.274%, or stopping through the 2.277% by 3 bps, the internals were less favorable.
Here is the simple, pragmatic answer, and one which Wheeler did stumble on last night when he said that no matter what he does "the market would still want more." That is precisely what has happened with Australia, New Zealand, Japan and so on: the market still wants more. Much more.
The summer doldrums continue with another listless overnight session, not helpd by Japan markets which are closed for holiday, as Asian stocks fell fractionally, while European stocks rebounded as oil trimmed losses after the the IEA said pent-up demand would absorb record crude output (something they have said every single month). S&P futures have wiped out almost all of yesterday's losses and were up over 0.2% in early trading.
The reality is, they cannot hide an economic collapse forever. Negative financial effects are going to touch ground somewhere, and the data is going to sneak through...the globalists have created the conditions by which an economic crisis can be triggered at the time of their choosing (within certain limits)... and they need the economy to turn unstable in order to create a rationale for a centralized economic authority and a single global currency system.
Moments ago, in what would be a very undemonic rate cut, the 667th since the Lehman bankruptcy, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.0% in what was a widely expected move. There is just one problem with this widely telegraphed rate cut: it was too widely telegraphed and the result was a surge in the NZD to the highest level in the past year!
To say that hedge funds have had a tough time navigating the world of activist central banks and central-planning, would be a vast understatement. According to Barclays, in the last almost 4.5 years, HFs actually generated negative cumulative alpha starting around 2011. Here is what they blame it on.
"Zero interest rates and negative interest rates and Europe and Asia are a huge signal that we are almost at the point where central banks have lost their tools to perpetuate a sense of confidence, that things are cyclical.... If you were to apply the Bretton Woods model for valuing money today, gold would be up to $15,000 an ounce..."
Moments before today's auction printed just after 1.01pm Eastern, the When Issued was trading at 1.505%, virtually unchanged from last month's 1.504%, yet what a difference a month makes. Whereas last month the 10Y came with a high yield that tailed by 1.2 bps as Indirect bidders tumbled to the lowest since January 2015, today we have seen foreign central banks flood right back, as Indirects took down a whopping 72.2%, just shy of the all time high seen back in May when Indirects were responsible for 73.5% of the issue.