Central Banks

Crispin Odey: "It Feels Lonely Being Bearish"

"A year ago it was easy to be bearish. China was slowing, world trade was creaking, Europe was not recovering and the oil price was hitting new lows. A year later to be bearish feels lonely... When we look back at this madness, some people will feel ashamed. Twisted facts and twisted logic may be met in the quiet of the night by reality. "

UBS: "The Current Market Configuration Is The Opposite Of February 2016"

Soft data momentum has been strong for some time, pulling expectations higher too. The change in global data surprises has reached levels it typically mean-reverts from. In the meantime, market volatility across all assets has declined sharply. This configuration, the opposite of that in Feb 2016, warns us against adding risk aggressively now.

UBS Reveals Who Was Responsible For The Global Reflation

"For a spell in Q4 2016 the US was certainly the flag bearer of the reflation trade. However, before and since it was China at the epicentre of the most significant positive growth shock for the global economy."

The Illusion Of Liquidity

As my mom used to say: “It’s all fun and games until someone gets their eye put out.”

Albert Edwards Is Puzzled: "Where Is The Wage Inflation?"

"To be honest I am a little surprised that US nominal wages are not showing more of an acceleration given surging headline inflation has crushed real wage growth over the last year. Falling US real wages are already resulting in slower consumption growth, but workers have not yet pushed up nominal wage inflation..."