Chicago PMI

Key Events In Another Central Bank-Dominated Week

Last week it was all about central banks, when both the ECB and the PBOC unleashed a massive market rally. This week it will be about even more central banks, this time the Fed, which won't hike, and the BOJ, which may but most likely won't as the Fed and the ECB already did its work for it, sending the Yen tumbling with their actions and/or jawboning.

4 Warnings And Why You Should Pay Attention

No professional or successful investor every bought and held for the long-term without regard, or respect, for the risks that are undertaken. If the professionals are looking at "risk" and planning on how to protect their capital from losses when things go wrong - then why aren't you?  Exactly how many warnings do you need?

Payrolls Preview: Goldman Says 'Beat', Fed Regional Surveys Signal 'Huge Miss'

Goldman forecasts nonfarm payroll growth of 215k in September, above consensus expectations of 200k by about 0.3 standard deviations of a typical surprise. Noting that August payrolls were likely distorted downward by seasonal bias last month and may be revised up, Goldman expects the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1% (and earnings growth to slow). Howver, judging by the collapse in September's regional Fed surveys, today's "most important" payrolls data ever could be a massive miss.

Chicago PMI "Bounce" Is Dead - PMI Plunges Back To Recessionary Levels

The brief dead cat inventory-stacking bounce in Chicago PMI is over. With a print of 48.7, back below 50, (against hope-strewn expectations of 52.9) this was below the lowest economist estimate and the lowest since May. Aside from employment (which somehow rose), the components were ugly with New Orders and Prices Paid all tumbling, while Production was the lowest since 2009 at 43.6.

US Futures Tumble After Latest Abysmal Chinese Economic Data, Crude Surge Stalls

Just like the last time when Chinese flash PMI data came out at the lowest level since the financial crisis, so overnight when both the official Chinese manufacturing and service PMI data, as well as the Caixin final PMI,s confirmed China's economy has not only ground to a halt but is now contracting with the official manufacturing data the lowest in 3 years and the first contraction in 6 months, stocks around the globe tumbled on concerns another major devaluation round by the PBOC is just around the corner with the drop led by the Shanghai Composite which plunged as much as 4% before, the cavalry arrived and bought every piece of SSE 50 index of China's biggest companies  it could find, and in a rerun of yestterday sent it to a green close, with the SHCOMP closing just -1.23% in the red. So much for the "no interventions" myth. We wonder which journalist will take the blame for today's rout.

Chicago PMI Bounce Stalls, "Firms At Risk Of Being Over-Inventoried"

Following this morning's ISM Milwaukee disappointment, missing for the 8th month sof the last 9 (printing 47.67 vs 50.00 exp and hovering at 2 year lows) with production and prices plunging, Chicago PMI just printed a slightly disappointing 54.4 (against expectations of 54.5). After last month's surprise bounce, this slowdown suggests there is little to no momentum in any 'recovery' stemming from a Q2 bounce. Weakness under the surface is broad and as purchasers warned "failure of New Orders to materialize "within the next few weeks" could put firms at risk of being over-inventoried and curtail producton levels." Perhaps most worrying though is the 4th consecutive contraction in employment... but the recovery? Judging by the market's response - it appears bad news is now bad news.

China Dramatically Intervenes To Boost Stocks Despite Reports It Won't; US Futtures Slump On J-Hole

Yesterday, the FT triumphantly proclaimed: "Beijing abandons large-scale share purchases", and that instead of manipulating stocks directly as China did last week on Thursday and Friday, China would instead focus on punishing sellers, shorters, and various other entities. We snickered, especially after the Shanghai Composite opened down 2% and dropped as low as 4% overnight. Just a few hours later we found out that our cynical skepticism was again spot on: the moment the afternoon trading session opened, the "National Team's" favorite plunge protection trade, the SSE 50 index of biggest companies, went super-bid and ramped from a low of 2071 to close 140 points higher, ending trading with a last minute government-facilitated surge, and pushing the Composite just 0.8% lower after trading down as much as -4.0%.

Payrolls Preview: Goldman Expects Seasonal Bounce In Jobs But Warns Wage Growth May Disappoint

While many labor market indicators were softer in July, some important service sector indicators, such as ISM nonmanufacturing employment, were significantly stronger; and on balance, they expect job growth roughly consistent with the 223k increase in June. The participation rate showed a surprising drop of 0.3pp in June to 62.6% - due in large part from a calendar effect caused by the timing of the reference week relative to the end of the school year - they therefore expect an at least partial rebound in July.

Chicago PMI Jumps To 6-Month Highs As UMich Consumer "Hope" Tumbles To 2015 Lows

It appears Chicago businesses are immune to the vaguaries of the worst quarterly wage growth in US history. Following significant weakness earlier in the year, Chicago PMI surged to 54.7, the second highest in 2015, smashing expectations of a 50.8 print. Having flashed its recessionary warning lights, while 7 underlying factors improved led by increased production and new orders (and prices paid), employment continued to fall (though at a slower pace). After missing in July's preliminary print (93.3 vs 94.0), UMich consumer sentiment final print for July dropped even further to 93.1, heading back towards the lows of the year as hope plunged from 87.8 to 84.1 - the lowest since Nov 2014.