Cognitive Dissonance

America - The Helpless 'Superpower'

Trump’s critique of the political class, and his diagnosis of the US as an empire in decline, is what gives his message resonance – and it’s one reason why the political class hates him with a passion. His success is the measure of their failure. We are headed for some dark times. In spite of that, however, there will always be those who will uphold the original spirit of our old republic and fight to defend it against all comers. Out of this will come a renewal – that is, if there is to be one.

"It's Never Different This Time" PIMCO Warns "The Tides Of Risk Will Flow Eventually"

The old Wall Street expression is “They don’t ring a bell at the top.” This snarky adage is usually employed by those saddened financial managers who ride a successful investment to a peak and then watch in horror as it reverses course to a level below their cost basis. A pity this notion is misguided, since the market frequently “rings the bell.” It is just that most market participants are not listening. Perhaps they should be listening now.

Morgan Stanley Throws In The Bearish Towel, Sees S&P At 2,300 On A 19x "Bull Case" PE Multiple

"We are raising our 12-month price targets for the S&P 500 – base case from 2200 to 2300, bear case from 1600 to 1800, and our bull case from 2400 to 2500... For the bull case, we are leaving our EPS essentially unchanged, moving the out year from $137.1 down to $136.5, but raising our bull case multiple from 18x to 19x, yielding our new 2500 bull case forecast."

"If This Does Not Disqualify Hillary For The Presidency, It's Hard To Know What Will"

But does it even matter? What we discovered this week is that one of the nation’s top officials created a private server that housed proof that she continued a secret, ongoing entwinement with her family foundation - despite ethics agreements - and that she destroyed public records. If that alone doesn’t disqualify her for the presidency, it’s hard to know what would.

Weekend Reading: Willful Blindness

The problem for individual investors is the “trap” that is currently being laid between the appearance of strong market dynamics against the backdrop of weak economic and market fundamentals. Ignoring the last two to chase the former has historically not worked out well.

Rising Recession Risks & The Tears In America's Economic Fabric

Stock market “bulls” should pray that interest rates don’t rise. Don’t blame those poor consumers for not spending – they are spending everything they have and then some. Just one word describes the outcome of that event given the current excessively leveraged consumption based economy of today – disaster.

David Rosenberg: "This Market Makes No Sense"

"Long bonds, short the Fed funds futures. Long equities but long bonds. Long gold but long equities. Long the dollar and long the precious metals. It is next to impossible to make sense out of this; I’m not even sure Graham or Dodd could if they were still alive."