• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

Commitment of Traders

Tyler Durden's picture

"Smart Money" Has Never Been More Bearish On Silver





For the moment, silver’s intermediate-term bull market remains in force, albeit with a record level of bearishness on the part of the “smart money”.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Still Looks Like A Trap





“If the weather forecast suggests it might rain, wouldn’t you carry an umbrella?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Silver: Do Old Indicators Matter Or Is Physical About To Overrun Paper?





"The physical market dog is starting to wag the paper market tail. Anyone trading paper-centric historical patters is driving forward while looking in the rear view mirror."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Battling" A Technically-Overbought Gold Market





"Now that we are entering a negative rate world, I am seeing a lot of very large-sized institutional money looking for a home. Some of this money is flowing into gold, and this is confusing technical traders who are battling what looks like a technically overbought gold market..."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Someone Is Very Wrong On The US Dollar: Hedge Funds Most Bullish In One Year, 'Real Money' Most Bearish





As JPM explained 10 days ago, before one can form a definitive view on the future direction of the S&P500, aside from BTFD "just because", one first has to decide what the USD will do from here. And that's where we run into a problem, because according to the latest Commitment of Traders data, the outlook of the "smart" money managers has never diverged as much as it does right now.

 
Monetary Metals's picture

Gold-Silver Ratio Breakout Report, 28 Feb, 2016





Monetary Metals has been predicing a rising gold-silver ratio. This ratio moved up very sharply this week, and now it takes 83.2 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.

It's within a hair’s breadth of breaking out past the high set on Oct 17, 2008.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is A Stronger Euro And A Stronger Yen In Play?





While we still think its early to call the end of the dollar bull market that has been in place since July 2011, it's apparent that the world is currently not in as broad of a dollar bull market as we were in last year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Step Aside Gold: There Is Something Else The Hedge Fund Community Hates Even More





While the fear and loathing of gold by the "smart money" and central banks has been extensively documented in recent years, another asset class is emerging as the "most hated" within the speculator community: treasurys, or rather, duration.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

These Are The Biggest Hedge Fund Casualties From The ECB's "Shocking" Disappointment





Man Group, which runs $76.8 billion in assets, said on its website that its $4.4 billion AHL Diversified fund lost 5.1% on Thursday. Among other funds to have been running bets, to a greater or lesser extent, against the euro were Brevan Howard Asset Management, which oversees about $25 billion in assets; Tudor Investment Corp.; Moore Capital Management; and Caxton Associates, said investors. "Pretty much everyone was short the euro. The view was very clear for everyone."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Good News: Gold Speculators Haven't Been This Gloomy In 13 Years





Gold sentiment may finally be getting bearish enough to support a durable bottom.

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Buying Surges In November - China Buys 21 Tonnes In November Alone





Sales of American Eagle gold coins at the U.S. Mint surged in November, with gold demand nearly tripling month-over-month. China's gold reserves rose by another 21 tonnes in November, the biggest bout of gold buying since China began disclosing monthly data on it's gold reserves in June

Despite these very high levels of demand, gold prices fell sharply in November - from $1,141/oz to $1,070/oz or 6.6%.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Extreme Gold Positioning Grows As Hedge Funds Add To Record Shorts





With an all time high of 293 ounces of paper per ounce of registered physical gold, it appears hedge funds continue to ignore systemic risk and surging physical demand, merely following the trend lower in paper gold prices by adding to already record short positions in gold last week. With the speculative world near-record long the USDollar and record short gold, how much longer can the status quo boat can remain upright with so many on the same side. After this week's shake-out of USD longs courtesy of Draghi, one wonders if the gold squeeze is about to begin?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"Buy The Dips! What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" Axel Merk Warns "A Hell Of A Lot"





The lack of fear in risky assets is another way of saying that risk premia have been low, or as we also like to put it, that complacency has been high. Not fully appreciative of this inherent risk, it seems many investors have refrained from rebalancing their portfolios, and bought the dips instead. We believe the Fed’s efforts to engineer an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy should get risk premia to rise once again, that if fear should come back to the market, volatility should rise, creating headwinds to ‘risky’ assets, including equities. That said, this isn’t an overnight process, as the ‘buy the dip’ mentality has taken years to be established. Conversely, it may take months, if not years, for investors to shift focus to capital preservation, i.e. to sell into rallies instead.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"(Not Always) Smart Money" Hedgers Are Record Long S&P 500 Futures





The only other time the S&P 500 Hedgers’ net long position exceeded 60,000 contracts was... September 25-October 9, 2007. We may or may not have to remind you that October 9, 2007 marked the all-time high in the S&P 500 to that point – and for 6 years to follow. Obviously, this was decidedly NOT a well-timed long extreme.

 
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