Commitment of Traders

Could the euro rally on a 10-15 bp cut in key rates?  Technical indicators suggest this may be likely.  

A dispassionate discussion look at the rally in US Treasuries

Here is the technical reasons why the euro, sterling and Swiss franc retreat is a likely a correction rather than a change of the underlying trend.  US 10-year yields near lows and a recovery could lift the greenback vs JPY.  

A near-term outlook for the dollar against the major foreign currencies.  

A weekly technical outlook for the major currencies.

Overview of forces impacting stocks, bonds and currencies.  

Doing some detective work. 

Technical outlook for the several of the most actively traded currencies.  

The recent strength of the euro and sterling seemed to evaporate, while the yen and dollar-bloc currencies recovered.  Is this a major trend change or was it simply reflecting some position adjustment in a thin market? 

Dolllar weakess is largely concentrated against euro and sterling and those handful of currencies that move in their orbits.  The US dollar is firm against the dollar-bloc and yen and many emerging market currencies.  

Travesty- n: “a false, absurd, or distorted representation of something.”

Overview of the near-term outlook for the major currencies.  

As suggested here last week, the dollar moved higher over the past five sessions.  Although it finished the week on a firm note, I suspect we may have a pullback before seeing higher levels.    Here is why.

Overview of the price action in the fx market.

It may seem counter-intuitive but the US dollar appreciated last week, despite the partial closure of the Federal government, the heightened risk of default and the nomination of Yellen.  The dollar can move higher next week too.