Commitment of Traders

Marc To Market's picture

Dollar Bulls Ahead

Yes the US does not practice laissez faire capitalism.  It never did.  It manipulates sets intersest rates.  The fx market is still understandable and the dollar is moving higher.

Marc To Market's picture

New Ranges in FX

An overview of the price action in the FX market and a look at US 10-year yields.  No ride on an ideological hobbie horse or axe to grind.  Just trying to make sense of the price aciton

The $1.5 Trillion Short And Noisy Inflation Trades

On the day after Chairman Yellen’s press conference, investors aggressively bid up inflation trades across numerous asset classes. Gold and silver rallied sharply, TIPS implied inflation breakevens widened (despite a new slug of 30-year supply), Treasury yields rose, and the yield curve steepened. Based on investor positioning and market sentiment (CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data show record net short positions exceeding $1.5 trillion in notional rates exposure among speculators in the eurodollar futures markets), there’s decent potential for additional gains in these inflation expressions in the days and weeks ahead.

Clients Are The Most Net Short Treasuries Since 2006, JPMorgan Warns

We have shown the surge in short positioning that CFTC exposes via its Commitment of Traders data that has begun to see some covering; but despite Citi's protestation that the recent rally in bonds 'must' have cleared out the short base and squared positions, the truth is - the Treasury market is dominated by more than just futures and institutional clients have not been this short Treasuries since 2006. As JPMorgan's Client Survey exposes, as of the end of last week, active clients were adding to shorts... which could be a problem as the last time all clients were this net short, bond yields collapsed in the next few months...