Commodity Futures Trading Commission

Frontrunning: January 6

  • December Jobs Data to Wrap Up Obama’s Economic Legacy (WSJ)
  • FBI Says Democrats Refused Access to Hacked E-Mail Servers (BBG)
  • As Trump attacks, Nissan at bigger risk than Toyota (Reuters)
  • Democratic leader Schumer emerges as Trump's newest punching bag (Reuters)
  • PBoC raises renminbi’s daily fix by most since 2005 (FT)
  • China central bank urges rational investment in bitcoin (Reuters)

Frontrunning: January 4

  • Trump Tariff on GM Would Violate NAFTA. That May Not Stop Him (BBG)
  • Obama Tries to Save Parts of Health Law Amid GOP Attack (WSJ)
  • Trump Puts Auto Makers, Trade Policy in Spotlight (WSJ)
  • British consumers borrow at fastest rate in 11 years as inflation threat rises (Reuters)
  • Investment banking fees fall 7 percent in 2016 dragged down by equity raisings (Reuters)

Can The Canadian Oil Industry Recover In 2017?

Even with the recovery in conventional oil and gas looking positive in 2017, the lack of major capital investment in oil sands that has become the norm in the past decade will be painful with no relief in sight.

COMEX, ICE Gold Vault Reports Both Overstate Eligible Gold Inventory

Both CME and ICE publish reports showing warehouse inventories of gold in two categories, Eligible gold and Registered gold. Most importantly, however, both reports are technically incorrect for the approved vaults that they have in common because neither Exchange report takes into account the Registered gold reported by the other Exchange.

Six Steps Trump Can Take Toward Better Monetary Policy

The largest contributor to inflation and financial turmoil is dishonest money - enabling bureaucrats to run perpetual government deficits and pile up the federal debt. If Trump takes the steps outlined below, he can repair some of the damage.

Money Managers Have Never Been More Sure That Interest Rates Will Continue To Rise

In August of 2014, amid tapering QE and talk of normalization, speculators in the world's most liquid money-market instruments went all-in with record bearish bets on eurodollar futures. They were wrong and the short-squeeze sparked a slow-motion flash-crash in bond yields (10Y from 2.65% to 1.86% in a month). Today, as we await words, smoke, and mirrors from Janet tomorrow, the world's speculators are even more all-in...

Global Bond Rout Returns With A Vengeance, Sending 10Y Yields To Highest In Over Two Years

The global bond rout returned with a bang, sending 10Y US Treasury yields as much as six basis points higher to 2.53%, the highest level in over two years. The selloff accelerated following Saturday's agreement by NOPEC nations to slash production, leading to rising inflation pressures. At last check, the 10Y was trading at 2.505%, up from 2.462% at Friday and on track for its highest close since September 2014.

Let Crude Crash: US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007

Short positions in WTI futures contracts held by producers or merchants totaled more than 540,000 contracts as of October 2016, the most since 2007. Banks have tightened lending standards as crude oil prices declined, and some banks require producers to hedge against future price risk as a condition for lending. As a result, an oil crash may be just the windfall domestic shale producers need.

Waking Up In Hillary Clinton's America

With less than two weeks to go before E-day -- despite the Trumptilian upheaval of the last year -- the high probability of a Clinton win means the establishment remains intact. When we awaken on November 9th, it will undoubtedly be dawn in Hillary Clinton’s America and that potentially means four years of an economic dystopia that will (as would Donald Trump’s version of the same) leave many Americans rightfully anxious about their economic futures.

Global Stocks Jump On Mega Merger Monday, Buoyed By Earnings, PMIs, Politics

Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.