Conference Board

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Payrolls Preview: Goldman Expects Jobs Data To Disappoint





Despite much hopeful banter among the mainstream media, Goldman forecast nonfarm payroll job growth of 220k in June, notably below consensus expectations of 234k. This is roughly in line with Goldman's expectations for below average job growth over the remainder of 2015. Employment indicators were mixed in June: reported job availability, the employment components of most manufacturing surveys, and ADP employment growth improved, but jobless claims and job cuts both rose slightly and online job ads declined. Overall, the June data point to a gain below the very strong 280k increase in May.

 
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Consumer Confidence Soars In June On Spike In Hope





As Gallup's Consumer Confidence plunges, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence explodes higher from 94.6 to 101.4 (smashing expectations of 97.4). After missing by the most in 5 years in April, higher gas prices, market instability, and growing social unrest appear to be the perfect recipe for improved consumer confidence as The Conference Board data nears the highest since 2007. The biggest driver of the headline spike is the surge in "expectations" - in other words, hope - which jumped from 86.2 to 94.6, although expectations for higher incomes finally began to drop back to reality.

 
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Dollar Tumbles After Fed Whiffs Again; More Cracks Appear In Chinese Stock Bubble





All those saying the Fed will never be able to raise rate are looking particularly smug this morning, because if the market needed a green light that despite all the constant posturing, pomp and rhetoric, the US economy is simply (never) ready for a rate hike, it got it late last night when Goldman is pushing back its forecast for the first Fed rate hike from  September to December 2015 saying that "in large part this reflects the fact that seven FOMC participants are now projecting zero or one rate hike this year, a group that we believe includes Fed Chair Janet Yellen. We had viewed a clear signal for a September hike at the June meeting as close to a necessary condition for the FOMC to actually hike in September, but the committee did not lay that groundwork today."

 
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European Stocks Slide, Greece Tumbles But US BTFDers Emerge After Collapse In Greek Bailout Talks





European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the banks and autos sectors underperforming and food & beverage, retail outperforming. Tsipras hardens Greek stance after collapse of bailout talks. The Italian and Swedish markets are the worst-performing larger bourses, the U.K. the best. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Greek 10yr bond yields rise; Spanish yields increase. Commodities decline, with copper, nickel underperforming and natural gas outperforming. U.S. Empire manufacturing, net TIC flows, NAHB housing market index, industrial production, capacity  utilization due later.

 
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Key Events In The Coming "Most Impotant Jobs Report Ever" Week





June is off with a bang, and a very busy week in the macro economic calendar, both globally and in the US, which culminates with the latest "most important ever" payrolls report, one which will surely be closely watched by a Fed which may hike as soon as a few weeks from now (but probably won't).

 
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Futures Flat With Greece In The Spotlight; China Boomerangs Higher





Remember China's 6% crash last week? It is now a distant memory made even more remote thanks to the latest batch of ugly data out of China, coupled with hints of even more liquidity injections, which led to the latest surge in the Shcomp, an index that has put most pennystocks to shame. In Europe, the big story remains Greece, and as everyone expected, the doomed country and its creditors failed to make a deal on Sunday. This is after Greek Officials were said to have prepared a draft agreement, which was expected to be announced on Sunday. Not helping things, Greek PM Tsipras came out in fully defiant mode and accused bailout monitors of making “absurd” demands and seeking to impose “harsh punishment” on Athens. A bunch of final PMI number showed a modest improvement in the periphery at the expense of Germany whose deterioration is starting to be a concern.

 
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Chinese Stock Bubble Frenzy Returns; US Futures Flat Ahead Of Today's Pre-Holiday Zero Volume Melt Up





The highlight of the overnight newsflow may have been the BOJ's preannounced statement that it is keeping its QE unchanged (which comes as no surprise after a few weeks ago the BOJ adimitted it would be unable to keep inflation "stable" at the 2% in the required timeframe), but the highlight of overnight markets was certainly China, where the Banzai Buyers have reemerged, leading to another whopping +2.8% session for the Shanghai Composite which has now risen to a fresh 7 years high.

 
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Key Events In The Coming Week Topped With Yellen's Friday Speech





As the economic calendar slowly picks up following the NFP lull, we are looking at a busy week both globally and in the US, where an army of Fed speakers culminates with a Yellen speech on Friday at 1pm in Rhode Island.

 
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Payrolls Preview - Weakness Pre-Emptively Blamed On Weather





When all else fails, pre-emptively blame the weather...

 
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Frontrunning: March 31





  • Iran, powers push for nuclear deal as clock ticks toward deadline (Reuters)
  • How DIY Bond Traders Displaced Wall Street’s Hot Shots (BBG)
  • MillerCoors Caught in a Downdraft (WSJ)
  • Saudi-led strikes again hit Yemen overnight (Reuters)
  • Even With Free Money, Merkel Still Reluctant to Spend (BBG)
  • Britain Uses Tax Breaks to Lure Digital-Game Developers (WSJ)
  • China to Insure Deposits in Move Toward Scrapping Rate Curbs (BBG)
  • As China Expands Its Navy, the U.S. Grows Wary (WSJ)
 
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Buying Euphoria Fizzles Ahead Of Make Or Break Tsipras-Merkel Talks





As previously observed (skeptically), a main reason for the surge in the DAX, and thus the S&P, on Friday was premature hope that the Greek talks earlier were a long-overdue precursor to a Greek resolution, and as we further noted yesterday, subsequent bickering and lack of any clarity as we go into today's critical "final ultimatum" meeting between Merkel and Tsipras, is also why the Dax was lower by 1.1% at last check, even if the EURUSD continues to trade like an illiquid, B-grade currency pair whose only HFT purpose is to slam all stops within 100 pips of whatever the current price may be.

 
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PBOC Cuts Reserve Requirement By 0.5%, Joins 15 Other Central Banks Easing In 2015





Moments ago the number of central banks who have eased so far in 2015, most of them unexpeted, rose by one more from 15 to 16, when in addition to Singapore, Europe, Switzerland, Denmark, Canada, India, Turkey, Egypt, Romania, Peru, Albania, Uzbekistan and Pakistan, Russia and, most recently, Australia it was China's turn to do what so many banks had said was inevitable, even if meant backtracking on all its blustery talk about limiting bad debt expansion, and cut its reserve requirement ratio for bank by 0.5% effective Thursday, to boost liquidity and support the economy.

 
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Frontrunning: January 14





  • U.S. Index Futures Decline on Commodities Slump, Growth Concerns (BBG)
  • Al Qaeda claims French attack, derides Paris rally (Reuters)
  • Charlie Hebdo With Muhammad Cover on Sale With Heavy Security Precautions (BBG)
  • How an Obscure Tax Loophole Brought Down Obama's Treasury Nominee  (BBG)
  • ECB’s bond plan is legal ‘in principle’ (FT)
  • Charlie Hebdo fallout: Specter of fascist past haunts European nationalism (Reuters)
  • DRW to acquire smaller rival Chopper Trading (FT)
  • Oil fall could lead to capex collapse: DoubleLine's Gundlach (Reuters)
 
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Existing Home Sales Revised Lower (Again), Midwest Slumps For 6th Month In A Row





While existing home sales rose 0.8% (beating the 0.5% expectation) MoM in November, once again previous data was revised lower. On an unadjusted basis however, YoY home sales rose at only 1.7% - missing expectations of 2.6% growth. The Midwest region saw existing home sales drop again - for the 6th month in a row, down over 5% in that period.

 
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Futures Soar On Swiss NIRP Stunner, "Considerably Patient" Fed





After drifting unchanged for much of the overnight session, US futures exploded higher shortly after the previously noted SNB's NIRP announcement, which took place at 2 am eastern, which made it explicit that yet another banks will herd the bouncing dead cats right into new all time stock market highs, and following the European open, were carried even higher as the global "risk-on" momentum ignition algos woke up, spiking all recently depressed assets higher, including energy as Brent rose almost 3% despite Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi once again saying "it is difficult if not impossible" for OPEC and his kingdom to reduce output.

 
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