Conference Board

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: US Payrolls; Eurozone Inflation And Fed Speakers

Focus in this holiday-shortened week will turn to US data, especially NFP, Fed speakers and Eurozone inflation. UK PMIs will also draw attention as elections approach. We also get GDP data from Canada, Sweden and Switzerland. On Monday, Euro FX and bond markets will be on Mario Draghi alert on Monday as the ECB president speaks to the European parliament.

April Payrolls Preview: "It Better Be Good"

After the abysmal March labor report, all we - and the Fed - can say is that April better be good, or else Yellen's claim of "transitory weakness" will simply be the latest nail in the coffin of Fed credibility. Here is the consensus for the key numbers the BLS will report at 8:30am ET on Friday morning.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: FOMC, Payrolls, 131 S&P Companies Report

Besides the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 2-3, and French & Italian politics - the decisive runoff round of the French election takes place this Sunday - this week's releases are dominated by US payrolls expected to come around 170k. The busy release calendar continues with Norges bank and RBA meetings as well as global manufacturing PMIs.

Consumer Confidence Stumbles As Stock Market Optimism Plunges Most In 15 Months

After rising almost incessantly for the last few months (post-trump), The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped in April (though remains near decade-long highs) with a notable drop in 'expectations' (and business conditions weakening). Furthermore, the 'expectations for future stock market increases' which reached its highest since the peak in 2000 in March, tumbled in April.

World Stocks Hit All Time High, S&P Futures Rise To Within 1% Of Record

World stocks hit a new record high on Tuesday, with investors still cheering Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election, supported by speculation about U.S. tax reform and the overnight report that Trump has conceded on the border wall, eliminating a government shutdown as a potential risk.

Euphoria Returns: European Stocks Soar, Dax Hits Record; S&P Futs Surge In "French Relief Rally"

Risk is definitely on this morning as European shares soar, led by French stocks a new record high in Germany's Dax, and S&P futures up 1.2% after a "French relief rally" in which the first round of the country’s presidential elections prompted investors to bet that establishment candidate Emmanuel Macron will win a runoff vote next month. Asian stocks also surged, expect for China, which suffered its biggest drop of the year, down 1.4%, ending the streak of losses no greater than 1% going back to December.

Goldman Asks: Are Markets Rationally, Or Irrationally, Exuberant?

The distinction between rational and irrational sentiment matters. If improvements in sentiment “rationally” reflect recent macro data or “news” about future developments, they likely foreshadow stronger growth. But to the extent that sentiments are “irrational,” they leave the economy more vulnerable to cycles of overheating and correction.

Albert Edwards Is Puzzled: "Where Is The Wage Inflation?"

"To be honest I am a little surprised that US nominal wages are not showing more of an acceleration given surging headline inflation has crushed real wage growth over the last year. Falling US real wages are already resulting in slower consumption growth, but workers have not yet pushed up nominal wage inflation..."

And Now Fake Consumer Confidence Too: Gallup Says Confidence In The Economy "Tumbled"

"Americans' confidence in the U.S. economy tumbled along with the Dow Jones industrial average last week. Though still in positive territory, Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index (ECI) dropped six points to a score of +5 for the week ending March 26. This is the lowest weekly average since the presidential election in November." - Gallup