Conference Board

Has The Fed Ever (Accurately) Predicted A Recession?

In a recent survey not a single major central bank could provide an example of an accurate “a priori” recession forecast. The silence from the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, BOE, BOJ and the Bank of Canada is deafening.

Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects

There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

From Hope To Nope - Consumer Confidence Crashes To 14-Month Lows

Just three months ago Consumer Confidence was peaking at 8 year highs and everything was awesome. Now, with the biggest miss since March 2009, Consumer Confidence crashed to 90.4 from 99.1. This is the lowest since Septmeber 2014 as the "decline was mainly due to a less favorable view of the job market." Almost every cohort - across age, income, race saw a collapse in confidence though we note low income and under-35s saw the biggest declines as Income Growth expectations plunge to the lowest in 14 months.

Key Economic Events In The Holiday-Shortened Week

It may be a holiday shortened week in the US with Thanksgiving and Black Friday sales on deck (some of which may be starting as soon as Wednesday) but there is a lot of macro data to digest in the next few days.

Futures Rise, Global Stocks Set For Best Week In Six Unfazed By Terrorism Concerns

Futures are modestly higher in early trading having tracked the USDJPY once again almost tick for tick, with the carry trade of choice rising to 123 shortly after Mario Draghi's latest speech pushed the dollar strong initially only to see most gains promptly evaporate against both the Yen and the Euro. European shares are likewise little changed, after gaining earlier, while Asian stocks rise; oil also advanced in early trading only to drop to its lowest overnight level moments ago, a few dimes over $40, with aluminum and copper both posting modest increases.

Consumer Confidence Slides As Low Gas Prices No Longer Lift Sentiment

Despite ongoing low gas prices, a recovery in stocks, and the nationally-advertised unemployment rate remaining low, Consumer Confidence tumbled in October from eight-year highs to three-month lows. Worse still, "hope" slid to its lowest in 3 months as "jobs plentiful" slid notably with fewer jobs and decreasing income.

Futures Firm On Hope Draghi Will Give Green Light To BTFD

After yesterday's dramatic late day market rout catalyzed by the tumble in the biotech sector in general, and Valeant in particular, and foreseen in its entirety by Gartman who went bullish just hours before, this morning US equity futures and European stocks have recouped some losses on the recursive, and traditional, hope that Mario Draghi will say something to push risk higher when he speaks in 2 hours at the ECB's press conference in Malta. And yet, just like Yellen a month ago, Draghi faces the paradox of reflexivity that after years of being ignored, is the "new thing" in town: how does he intervene and demonstrate he is readier than ever to set up stimulus, without panicking investors over euro area’s health.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Little Macro, Lots Of Micro

It is a generally quiet week on the economic front, with updates mostly on the housing front where following today's euphoric NAHB Housing Market Index, we have housing start and permits, blaims and existing home sales. Elsewhere, Fed speakers continue to speak, with Lacker, Dudley (again) and Powell confusing traders once more. The big news this week is earnings as some of the most prominent companies report, including IBM, Verizon, GM, Ebay, Coke, Boeing, Amazin, AT&T, CAT, Microsoft and P&G.

Frontrunning: October 14

  • Democratic rivals back Clinton on emails, but little else in scrappy debate (Reuters)
  • Hillary Clinton Shows Relentless Efficiency in First Democratic Debate (WSJ)
  • U.S. Examines Goldman Sachs Role in 1MDB Transactions (WSJ)
  • JPMorgan Says Trading Pain Isn't Over After Third-Quarter Slump (BBG)
  • Islamic State battles insurgents near Aleppo as army prepares assault (Reuters)
  • Oil Slide Means `Almost Everything' for Sale as Deals Accelerate (BBG)

Someone Is Lying: Consumer Confidence Is Somehow Both "Highest" And "Lowest" For The Year

According to what is arguably the most respected polling organization in the US, consumer confidence has crashed to the lowest level in a year. On the other hand, according to a tax-exempt research organization, consumer confidence is not only the highest it has been in 2015, but it practically the highest since 2007.Someone is lying, we leave it up to readers to decide who.

Payrolls Preview: Goldman Says 'Beat', Fed Regional Surveys Signal 'Huge Miss'

Goldman forecasts nonfarm payroll growth of 215k in September, above consensus expectations of 200k by about 0.3 standard deviations of a typical surprise. Noting that August payrolls were likely distorted downward by seasonal bias last month and may be revised up, Goldman expects the unemployment rate to remain flat at 5.1% (and earnings growth to slow). Howver, judging by the collapse in September's regional Fed surveys, today's "most important" payrolls data ever could be a massive miss.

Consumer Confidence Spikes Near 8-Year High Amid Global Turmoil But "Hope" Fades

For the second month in a row, US Consumer Confidence (according to The Conference Board) soared in September. Printing 103.00 (smashing expectations of 96.8) in September, this is just shy of January's high going back to August 2007. The biggest driver of this seemingly odd exuberance (amid global escalation in financial and physical wars) is the Present Situation (up from 115.8 to 121.1) while "hope" dropped from 91.6 to 91.0. As The Conference Board concludes, "while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

Government Shutdown & Debt Limit Questions Answered

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago, and Goldman Sachs believes the probability is nearly 50%. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, but the House looks unlikely to act until shortly before the September 30 deadline. The following attempts to answer the main questions surrounding the shutdown, debt limit deadlines, and ramifications...