Conference Board

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.

Will Investors Get 'Hustled' By The Pros In 2017?

If you think you’re hearing a wee bit of a mixed message emanating from households and businesses, you’re not losing your marbles. If the stars don’t align perfectly, if the sequel doesn’t best the original, smaller investors might want to wise up to the fact that they’re being hustled by the equivalent of professional gamblers.

Consumer Confidence Jumps To Highest Since 2001 As "Trump Hope" Soars

Moments ago, that "other" confidence index reported by the Conference Board, also printed at multi-year highs, surging from its November print of 109.4, and well above the 109 expected, to 113.7. This was the highest print since August 2001. What drove the surge? What else: hope that Trump will make things better...

S&P Futures Rise Propelled By Stronger Dollar; Europe At 1 Year High As Yen, Bonds Drop

It appears nothing can stop the upward moment of equities heading into the year end, and as US traders walk in, S&P futures are again higher, proppeled by European stocks which climbed to their highest in almost a year, while the USD rose and bonds and gold fell, failing again to respond to terrorist attacks in Ankara, Berlin and Zurich. The yen tumbled after the BOJ maintained its stimulus plan.

Payrolls Preview: Unemployment Rate Expected To Drop (But Blame The Weather & Calendar If Not)

A series of stronger than expected data in recent days pushed Goldman Sachs to up their payrolls growth expectation to 200k (above the 180k expectations), but they note that while the unemployment rate is likely to drop (to 4.8%), average hourly earnings may disappoint. Of course, they add, any non-narrative-confirming misses on the data can likely be explained away by "weather effects and residual seasonality."

Trump Victory Sends Consumer Confidence Soaring To Post-Lehman Highs

Having fallen to a 3-month low in October, Conference Board Consumer Confidence soared to 107.1 in November post-Trump - the highest since July 2007. This confirms Gallup's survey which saw economic confidence at its highest level since before Lehman, swinging positive post-Trump after being almost uniformly negative since Obama's election.

Key Events In The "OPEC Is Optimistic About A Deal" Week

The key economic releases this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, ISM manufacturing on Thursday, and the employment report on Friday. There are a few scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the December FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.

Frontrunning: November 22

  • Record highs for Wall Street quartet send other stocks higher (Reuters)
  • Oil prices rise to highest this month on hopes of OPEC deal (Reuters)
  • OPEC Likely to Reach Output Consensus, Delegate Says (WSJ)
  • Trump’s Targets in First 100 Days: Trade, Regulation, Corruption (BBG)
  • Trump Poised to Push Nafta Changes, Pressure Mexico on Trade (WSJ)

Euro In Historic Slide As Dollar Surge, Bond Rout Continues

More of the same this morning as the dollar extended its advance on the still undeteremined Trump reflationary policy measures after Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent, while bond yields around the globe rose again, metals declined,  European stocks advanced and futures were modestly in the red just shy of all time highs.