Today's key economic data comes early in the day. The rest will be punctuated by ongoing rumors out of Europe and Iran.
Hope is soaring. But the toughest creature out there, the one no one has been able to subdue yet, has other plans.
Even as everyone is glued to webcasts out of Athens, there will be some secondary data in the US, first of which is the Case-Shiller index, as usual about 3 months delayed, and thus very much irrelevant, and second is the circular loop of an indicator that is the Conference Board (it's up when the market is up, it's up when the market is down but when the respondents are Wall Street CEOs, it's up when stocks plunge but when gas is down a cent, and in fact, it is never down). More importantly, the third to last POMO in QE2 will be completed at 11 am. Lastly, $35 billion in 5 year notes will be "sold" to Primary Dealers.
As Conference Board/UMichigan Find Confidence At 3 Year High, Rasmussen Says Investor Confidence Plunges To 2011 LowsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 02/25/2011 12:42 -0400
Is it about the time that everyone agreed that all "consumer confidence" is politicized, circular, irrelevant, and just as credible as the next lie to come out of Larry Yun's mouth? While a few days Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan "found" that Consumer Confidence had surged to a According to Rasmussen, "investor confidence sinks to another 2011 low." Ok, enough. It is more than obvious to anyone with half a brain that "confidence" is nothing more than a gamed, goal seeked indicator, which is a function purely and entirely of the political agenda of the entity collecting the data. Another great example: while the Consumer Comfort index was managed by ABC until last week, it was scraping all time lows. Then the week it starts being managed by Bloomberg, and, lo and behold: "Consumer Comfort Increases to Highest Level Since 2008." A surge in confidence? Really? On gasoline passing $4? Luckily even Bloomberg admits the credibility of this latest propaganda index is suggest to say the least: "The four-point gain last week follows a five-point increase
in early January. The gauge dropped five points in the week
ended Feb. 6, the biggest setback since January 2010. Movements of that magnitude are unusual because the index
is based on a four-week average, Langer said. Nonetheless, the
gauge is mimicking the shifts seen in a 10-week span in mid-
1993, when the economy was also recovering from a recession." Ah, the good old Bloomberg "assumption taken as fact" Jedi mind trick. Last time we checked the only "recovery" was that in the debt ceiling, er, target, assuming its achievement of $100 trillion in under 10 years is considered "recovery." Was the "also recovery" driven by the biggest global deficit spend in the history of the world, and the first outright debt monetization episode since the advent of Weimar? Guess we won't read that in the Bloomberg piece.
Confused yet: a few days ago the Conference Board came out with a confidence number which was a massive miss, and which drove market higher on expectations of QE2. Today, to prove that nothing coming out of the government is even remotely credible anymore, the UMichigan Confidence index came at 68.2, beating expectations of 67.0, and compared to a previous read of 66.6. Once again, our condolences to all those who trade the candles in this joke passing for a market.
ABC Consumer Confidence Misses Estimates, Stays Near Record Lows, Divergence With Conference Board Is Now CompleteSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 01/26/2010 19:11 -0400
What a difference two presumably unmanipulated data series show. Earlier, the Conference Board showed that its index had hit the highest since September 2008, based on "improved economic conditions" (god bless them, and here we were thinking that 17.3% unemployment is indicative of just slight deterioration). However, after the close, ABC Consumer Comfort came out, and, lo and behold, demonstrates that another index of so-called consumer confidence in the current "economic improvement" is at an all time low. So seriously, who should we believe anymore? And is it time the Census bureau released an index that keeps track of lies, manipulation and discrepancies between reality and "economic index indicators?"