Congressional Budget Office

Two More Major Problems For Social Security & Medicare

The healthcare system has been broken to the point that physicians now have a greater incentive to fire their Medicare patients than to treat them. One Florida-based physician summed up the situation like this: “I have decided to opt-out of Medicare, acknowledging that I can no longer play a game that is rigged against me; one that I can never win because of constantly changing rules, and one where the stakes include fines and even potential jail time.”

Howard Marks: "So Much For The Experts"

"The opinions of experts concerning the future are accorded great weight . . . but they’re still just opinions. While I take a dim view of forecasts, and especially of opinions presented as facts, I do believe there are such things as facts.  Unfortunately, however, the concept of 'facts' is among the casualties of the increasingly partisan environment.  Recently we have seen both the elevation in status of 'non-facts', as well as the tearing down of 'real facts'."

Jeff Gundlach's Forecast For 2017

Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.

Why Trump's 4% GDP Will Remain Elusive

For the umpteenth year in a row, mainstream economists and analysts are once again planting the seeds of hope for a return to stronger GDP growth. The White House has hoped for it for the last 8 years, and now President-elect Trump is all but promising a surge in economic growth. Unfortunately, while promises are great, we must analyze the reality of attaining such a lofty resurgence.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

Obama Blocks Offshore Driling In Arctic, Atlantic Oceans

President Obama on Tuesday formally blocked offshore oil and gas drilling in most of the Atlantic and Arctic Ocean, responding to a call from environmentalists who say the government needs to do more to prevent drilling in environmentally sensitive areas of U.S.-controlled oceans.  

Markets Award Trump Nobel Prize In Economics

It took only nine days in office for President Obama to be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. Likewise, the markets seem to have prematurely greeted Trumponomics as an outstanding success. There’s just one thing: Trump hasn’t done anything yet. We’re still weeks away from his inauguration, and details of his economic plans remain scarce.

The Narrative Changes: Republicans "Pour Cold Water" On Trump's Massive Stimulus, Will Block Tax Cuts

Trump’s race to enact a "huge" stimulus went under a caution flag as Mitch McConnell warned he considers current levels of U.S. debt “dangerous”, and said he any tax overhaul should avoid adding to the deficit. "I think this level of national debt is dangerous and unacceptable." McConnell also poured cold water on the idea of a massive stimulus package, effectively laying out markers on taxes and spending.

US Budget Deficit Doubles As November Spending Hits All Time Monthly High

The U.S. budget deficit soared last month, highlighting the growing mismatch between government spending and revenues. The government ran a $136.7 billion deficit in November, more than double that reported one year ago. The reason for the spike: outlays rose roughly 25% compared with November 2015, and hit an all time high of $226.5 billion for the month of November.

A "Big Problem" Emerges For Trump's Economic Plan

Republican lawmakers warn that there could be a major obstacle to enacting President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda: the national debt. As Senator Jeff Flake said of deficits and debt: "I was disappointed that it wasn’t brought up in the campaign. It’s the biggest problem we face, by far."

As The Dust Settles: Goldman Q&A On Life In Trumplandia

Expect the election result to increase policy uncertainty, warns Goldman Sachs, as a result of an increased pace of legislative action in 2017 without clarity, so far, regarding which issues the administration will prioritize. Over the near-term, much will depend on how financial conditions respond to the policy positions of the new administration. Despite today’s favorable market reaction, investors may take a dimmer view on proposals to raise tariffs or otherwise restrict international trade.