Congressional Budget Office

Frontrunning: August 16

  • White House braces for fallout from Trump remarks (Reuters)
  • Trump Drags GOP Onto Dangerous Ground, This Time Over Race (BBG)
  • Trump Gives White Supremacists an Unequivocal Boost (NYT)
  • Trump orders faster permitting on infrastructure projects (Reuters)
  • Trump’s U.S. Senate Pick Advances in Alabama Republican Race (BBG)

Global Stocks Rise Amid Unexpected ECB "Trial Balloon"; Dollar Flat Ahead Of Fed Minutes

European markets continued their risk-on trend in early trading, rising to the highest in over a week and rallying from the open led by mining stocks as industrial metals spike higher after zinc forwards hit highest level since 2007. The EUR sold off sharply, boosting local bond and risk prices after the previously discussed Reuters "trial balloon" report that Draghi's speech at Jackson Hole would not announce the start of the ECB's taper.

CBO Blames Trump: Sees 20% Surge In 2018 Obamacare Premiums If Subsidies Removed

At the request of Nancy Pelosi, the Congressional Budget Office has just released a study intended to better understand the potential economic impacts that would result from the cancellation of taxpayer funded Obamacare subsidies (a.k.a. "cost-sharing reductions" or "CSRs").  Among other things finds that cutting CSRs would cause a 20% spike in Obamacare premiums in 2018 and result in a $194 billion increase in the deficit from 2017 through 2026.

Former CBO Director: The Fall Will Be "Very Scary", Expect A Market Crash

Former CBO director Rudy Penner said he expects a "very scary" fall due to the debt ceiling battle: "the markets don't seem to have absorbed the reality of Washington yet," he said. "I have an uneasy feeling this will all end badly-that there will be a very major market correction."

"Probably Nothing..."

Yesterday we warned of the growing anxiety in short-term Treasury-Bill markets over the looming debt-ceiling. Today, the tension has worsened with the 10/19 bill now up a shocking 13bps in 3 days leaving the curve extremely inverted around the potential debt-ceiling deadline.

What The Senate's Healthcare Fiasco Means For Trump Policies: Goldman Explains

Looking at last night's Senate fiasco, Goldman writes that while Congress may still pass a health bill, "it just won't be this one" and notes that the "enactment of much more narrowly-focused health legislation is still possible this year, in light of problems facing the individual insurance market for 2018." And in terms of near-term catalysts, all eyes now turn to the debt ceiling debate due in September...

House GOP Unveils 2018 Budget: Here Are The Highlights

On Tuesday morning, House Republicans released a fiscal 2018 budget plan on Tuesday that could pose a major new political test for President Donald Trump's legislative agenda by combining tax reform with controversial spending cuts. Here are the highlights.

White House Reveals Budget Deficit Will Be $250 Billion Greater Due To "Mistake"

The budget deficit for President Trump's first two years in office will be nearly $250 billion higher than initially estimated, hitting $702 billion in fiscal 2017, due to what appears to have been a calculation mistake: a shortfall in tax collections and a mistake in projecting military healthcare costs, according to budget chief Mick Mulvaney.

Is This The Generation That Is Going To Financially Destroy America?

"Nobody can pretend that what we have today is the kind of limited federal government that our founders intended.  When federal spending accounts for more than 20 percent of GDP, it is hard to argue that we haven’t moved very far down the road toward socialism. "