Congressional Budget Office

As The Dust Settles: Goldman Q&A On Life In Trumplandia

Expect the election result to increase policy uncertainty, warns Goldman Sachs, as a result of an increased pace of legislative action in 2017 without clarity, so far, regarding which issues the administration will prioritize. Over the near-term, much will depend on how financial conditions respond to the policy positions of the new administration. Despite today’s favorable market reaction, investors may take a dimmer view on proposals to raise tariffs or otherwise restrict international trade.

Trump Not Seeking Full Repeal Of Dodd-Frank; Opposes Bank Bailout Provision

In what may be bad news for the financial sector, after opposition to grassroots as well as Congressional republicans, Trump appears to be tempering expectations of a full Dodd-Frank repeal, and according to the WSJ, Trump’s transition team is instead focusing on "rescinding or scaling back individual provisions."

Obamacare Is Raising Premiums And Lowering Employment

"My premium is going up 96 percent. Ninety-six percent. My monthly payment, which was the amount of a decent car payment, is now the size of a moderate mortgage..." The law will slow economic growth over the next decade, costing the nation about 2.3 million jobs and contributing to a $1 trillion increase in projected deficits, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

The Boredom Before The Storm

With all the surprising and/or disturbing things going on – Brexit, China’s soaring debt, US/Russia/China saber rattling, the, um, unique US presidential race, the cyber attack that shut down big parts of the US Internet – you’d think that an unsettled world would be reflected in skittish financial markets. Instead we’re getting the opposite...

Paul Volcker Explains Why The Fed Can't Raise Rates

"Our current debt may be manageable at a time of unprecedentedly low interest rates. But if we let our debt grow, and interest rates normalize, the interest burden alone would choke our budget and squeeze out other essential spending. There would be no room for the infrastructure programs and the defense rebuilding that today have wide support."

Absurd Thinking

...it’s pretty obvious where things are headed. This isn’t a political problem. It’s an arithmetic problem. And the math doesn’t add up. The alternative is to assume that the Fed possesses some magical fairy dust to fix everything without any consequences... or that there will never be a recession ever again until the end of time.

Fun With Fake Statistics: The 5% "Increase" In Median Household Income Is Pure Illusion

The truth is the rich are getting richer and everyone else is losing ground as inflation chews through stagnant incomes and rising debt loads stripmine disposable income. Bought and paid for cheerleaders for our failed, corrupt status quo will always hype bogus, purposefully misleading statistics - but don't mistake fakery for fact.

Incompetent But Not Weak: "The Fed Doesn't Know Whether To Shit Or Go Blind"

The outlook for the US economy is deteriorating, yet the Fed is trying to raise overnight rates to keep unseen inflation from rising. Success in its strategy could force consumption lower, unemployment higher, and exacerbate real output contraction. The market, however, should not underestimate the Fed’s power based on its apparent incompetence.