Congressional Budget Office
"All this money printing, massive debt, and reckless deficit spending – and we have 2% inflation? I'm beginning to believe that either the deflationists are right, or the Fed's interventions are working." While a low CPI may be puzzling in the midst of massive, global currency abuse, there are three realities about inflation that convince us it's not only coming, but will catch an unsuspecting citizenry off guard. Let's take a look at why we're convinced inflation will be one of the next big catalysts for the gold price...
Lightening does not strike twice in the same place very often, especially in Washington.
We Could Offset the Need for the “Sequestration” Budget Cuts By Stopping Nuclear Subsidies
The Republican jerks have squandered an opportunity to come up with anything that is even remotely feasible.
Based on the coming 'oil revolution', John Mauldin makes the point that the US can run $300-400 billion deficits and the Fed "can print trillions" and the dollar will surge (since the rest of the world demands it). Peter Schiff begins quietly adding that "we don't have that much oil" then goes on to discuss the 'ifs' in Mauldin's thesis, beginning the wildcard that "we can't suppress interest rates indefinitely" as we await this supposed oil export boom to begin - and that somehow the US is expected to generate a budget surplus when even the perpetually optimistic CBO in its most recent forecast gave up on expecting a surplus in the future of America. Ever. The ensuing 3 minutes or so is worth the price of admission as Dollar bull meets Dollar bear in a nose-dripping, face-ripping trip into the future.
Much virtual ink has been spilled over the decline of the mainstream media, measured by circulation, advertising revenue, or a general sense of irrelevance. Furthermore, news consumers increasingly recognize that the mainstream media outlets are basically public relations services for government agencies, large companies, and other influential organizations. Journalists do very little actual journalism — independent investigation, analysis, reporting. A news outlet that deviates from the Narrative by doing its own investigation or offering its own interpretation risks being cut off from the flow of anonymous briefings which means a loss of prestige and a lower status. In exchange for sticking to the Narrative, they get access to official sources. Give up one, you lose the other. Readers are beginning to recognize this, and they don’t want to pay. Nowhere is this situation more apparent than the mainstream reporting on budget sequestration.
Below are the expectations of the biggest banks for today's Nonfarm Payroll number to be announced in just over two hours:
- Morgan Stanley +135K
- Barclays Capital +150K
- Goldman Sachs +150K
- Bank of America +160K
- JPMorgan +165K
- HSBC +179K
- Deutsche Bank +180K
- UBS +190K
What bothers me is that those who are now pushing the story that deficits aren't a problem, are the same ones who will be crying, "We never could have seen that happening", when the SHTF again.
The numbers we are faced with are so large, the COLA changes are really just a rounding error.
Overview of the drivers of the fx market, a discussion of the price action and a review of the latest Commitment of Traders report from the futures market. Contrary to ideas that QE3+ is the dominant force and dollar negative, the net speculative position is now long dollars against all the major currency futures but the Australian dollar and Mexican peso. The dollar's gains though appear to be a function of events outside the US.
If we can't even cut federal spending by 2.4 percent without much of the country throwing an absolute hissy fit, then what hope does America have? All of this whining and crying about the sequester is absolutely disgraceful. The truth is that even if the sequester goes into effect, the U.S. government will still take in more money than ever before in 2013 and it will still spend more money than ever before in 2013. So it is a bit disingenuous to call what is about to happen "a spending cut", but for the sake of argument let's concede that point. If this is how bad things are now, how bad will they be when a day of reckoning for our economy arrives? And a day of reckoning is coming. Our politicians can try to keep kicking the can down the road for as long as they can, but eventually time will run out. We can borrow our way to prosperity for a while, but in the end there is always a very bitter price to pay for doing so. I would love to tell you that there is a chance that all of this will be turned around, but the truth is that all of this whining and crying about the sequester shows that America is doomed.
The cuts for the balance of the fiscal year come to $42b; an amount that is equivalent to 45 points on Apple’s market capitalization. Not a big deal??
Is the U.S. economy about to experience a major downturn? Unfortunately, there are a whole bunch of signs that economic activity in the United States is really slowing down right now. In many ways, what we are going through right now feels very similar to 2008 before the crash happened. Back then the warning signs of economic trouble were very obvious, but our politicians and the mainstream media insisted that everything was just fine, and the stock market was very much detached from reality. When the stock market did finally catch up with reality, it happened very, very rapidly. Sadly, most people do not appear to have learned any lessons from the crisis of 2008. Americans continue to rack up staggering amounts of debt, and Wall Street is more reckless than ever. As a society, we seem to have concluded that 2008 was just a temporary malfunction rather than an indication that our entire system was fundamentally flawed. In the end, we will pay a great price for our overconfidence and our recklessness.
... And this time it is a true parabola.
The sequester was supposed to be such a bad outcome that it would force a compromise. The across-the-board cuts were so rigid and hurt so many favored programs, BAML notes, the “Super Committee” was almost certain to come up with a more flexible alternative. And yet, not only did the Super Committee fail to even make a proposal, the negotiations have now devolved into a blame game – the two parties are trying to pin the blame, and the political cost, onto the other party. As we have expected for some time, the sequester will very likely hit on March 1. This well likely add further downward pressure to the economy in the second quarter, with job growth averaging less than 100,000 per month and GDP growth slowing to 1%.