Congressional Budget Office

Bruce Krasting's picture

Experts on the Deficit





What bothers me is that those who are now pushing the story that deficits aren't a problem, are the same ones who will be crying, "We never could have seen that happening", when the SHTF again.

 


Bruce Krasting's picture

COLA Changes - Pro and Con





The numbers we are faced with are so large, the COLA changes are really just a rounding error.

 


Marc To Market's picture

Currency Positioning and Technical Outlook: King Dollar Returns?





Overview of the drivers of the fx market, a discussion of the price action and a review of the latest Commitment of Traders report from the futures market.  Contrary to ideas that QE3+ is the dominant force and dollar negative, the net speculative position is now long dollars against all the major currency futures but the Australian dollar and Mexican peso.  The dollar's gains though appear to be a function of events outside the US.  

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: All Of This Whining About The Sequester Shows Why America Is Doomed





If we can't even cut federal spending by 2.4 percent without much of the country throwing an absolute hissy fit, then what hope does America have?  All of this whining and crying about the sequester is absolutely disgraceful.  The truth is that even if the sequester goes into effect, the U.S. government will still take in more money than ever before in 2013 and it will still spend more money than ever before in 2013.  So it is a bit disingenuous to call what is about to happen "a spending cut", but for the sake of argument let's concede that point. If this is how bad things are now, how bad will they be when a day of reckoning for our economy arrives? And a day of reckoning is coming. Our politicians can try to keep kicking the can down the road for as long as they can, but eventually time will run out.  We can borrow our way to prosperity for a while, but in the end there is always a very bitter price to pay for doing so. I would love to tell you that there is a chance that all of this will be turned around, but the truth is that all of this whining and crying about the sequester shows that America is doomed.

 


Bruce Krasting's picture

Who’s to Blame?





The cuts for the balance of the fiscal year come to $42b; an amount that is equivalent to 45 points on Apple’s market capitalization. Not a big deal??

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Guest Post: 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead





Is the U.S. economy about to experience a major downturn?  Unfortunately, there are a whole bunch of signs that economic activity in the United States is really slowing down right now. In many ways, what we are going through right now feels very similar to 2008 before the crash happened.  Back then the warning signs of economic trouble were very obvious, but our politicians and the mainstream media insisted that everything was just fine, and the stock market was very much detached from reality.  When the stock market did finally catch up with reality, it happened very, very rapidly.  Sadly, most people do not appear to have learned any lessons from the crisis of 2008.  Americans continue to rack up staggering amounts of debt, and Wall Street is more reckless than ever.  As a society, we seem to have concluded that 2008 was just a temporary malfunction rather than an indication that our entire system was fundamentally flawed.  In the end, we will pay a great price for our overconfidence and our recklessness.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Sequester: Front-Loaded Pain, No Gain





The sequester was supposed to be such a bad outcome that it would force a compromise. The across-the-board cuts were so rigid and hurt so many favored programs, BAML notes, the “Super Committee” was almost certain to come up with a more flexible alternative. And yet, not only did the Super Committee fail to even make a proposal, the negotiations have now devolved into a blame game – the two parties are trying to pin the blame, and the political cost, onto the other party. As we have expected for some time, the sequester will very likely hit on March 1. This well likely add further downward pressure to the economy in the second quarter, with job growth averaging less than 100,000 per month and GDP growth slowing to 1%.

 


testosteronepit's picture

Budget Hawks ... Until Something Gets Cut In Their Districts





Army Chief of Staff: “The conundrum we have is that we don’t need the tanks”

 


Bruce Krasting's picture

What's Up With These Trust Funds?





I think that FERS and MRS are adding to the Debt Owed to the Public in a significant way.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Occam's Gold vs Rube Goldberg's Fiat





From the 'simplicity' of a Gold Standard to the 'complexity' of our current fiat system, Santiago Capital draws a handy analogy between the over-complicated machines of 'Rube Goldberg' that represents the interactions between the various actors affecting the size and velocity of our monetary base and the 'simplest possible, but no simpler' world of Occam's Razor prone gold. In two brief presentations, Brent Johnson introduces the two systems and explains that in order to keep the shark of our economy alive, one of two things must happen: monetary velocity must be maintained or the monetary base must rise. Obviously both are inflationary. From how the system is designed to its drastic implications, simple, brief, concise, and what to do about it. Simply put "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop"... whether we decide to do it ourselves or the market does it for us, our overly-complicated system of money is going to stop... and as such - buy protection against this absolutely certain eventuality.

 


Bruce Krasting's picture

CBO - The Coming Raid on Social Security





Some interesting footnotes in a CBO report.

 


Tyler Durden's picture

Paul Krugman: "We Should Kick The Can Down The Road. It’s The Responsible Thing To Do"





The below article, recreated in its grotesque entirety, is a real, serious Op-Ed written by a supposedly real, non page-view trolling, Nobel-prize winning economist, in a serious paper, the New York Times. It can be classified with one word: jaw-dropping:"We’re not going to resolve our long-run fiscal issues any time soon, which is O.K. — not ideal, but nothing terrible will happen if we don’t fix everything this year. Meanwhile, we face the imminent threat of severe economic damage from short-term spending cuts. So we should avoid that damage by kicking the can down the road. It’s the responsible thing to do."

 


Bruce Krasting's picture

4 Contrarian Views





The forecast for me is 12-18 inches. I'm hoping it pushes three feet.... Some odds and ends:

 


Tyler Durden's picture

What The US Government Spent Its Money On Last Quarter





The most vocal justification provided for the disappointing Q4 GDP print by the mainstream was an increase in US government "austerity" resulting in a decline in the government contribution to the economic bottom line in the last quarter (or first fiscal quarter of 2013). Ironically, both total spending and total debt issuance in the past quarter increased, which means that far from being austere, the US actually spent more, not less, i.e., the opposite of austerity. And while it is true that Defense spending declined by a tiny amount in the past quarter compared to the year ago, it was more than offset by a surge in Medicare and Medicaid, as well as Social Security, or, as they are better known, welfare. And, as the CBO yesterday showed, these two components of US spending, which together account for half of all US spending and which couldn't be funded by all US revenues even if the government spent $0.00 for all other programs, which will soar in the coming years as US society ages, as more workers retire, and as more are reliant on Uncle Sam for the payment of every bill. So the next time someone say that the US has a defense spending problem and nothing else, show them this chart.

 


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