Consumer Confidence

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Stocks "Will Do Worse Under The New Administration"

"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."

Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Trump Hope Dips

After surging to 12-year highs in December, following Trump's election victory, UMich consumer sentiment faded in January and missed expectations (98.1 vs 98.5 exp). While inflation outlooks picked up modestly off record lows, economic 'expectations' - hope - dipped from 89.5 to 88.9 as the Trump Bump appears to have stalled.

Jeff Gundlach's Forecast For 2017

Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.

BofA Finds Consumer Spending Tumbled In December, Warns Of Disappointing Retail Sales

According to BofA, retail sales ex-autos declined 1.0% mom seasonally adjusted in December. "This contrasts with other indicators of consumer strength including reports of a robust holiday shopping season, a rebound in consumer confidence and strong autos sales... we think it is prudent to prepare for a similarly negative number in Friday's report."

GM Shares Jump 5% After Forecasting Higher 2017 Profits, Strong China Sales, $5 Billion Buyback

GM stock is surging after CEO Mary Barra, who is presenting at Deutsche Bank conference, gave good news to shareholders when she revealed the company's 2017 adjusted EPS forecast, which at $6.00-$6.50 was well above the consensus estimate of $5.73, and also substantially above the 2016 year end guidance which forecast the carmaker would make "at the high end" of a $5.50-$6.00 range.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump

The main economic release this week is US retail sales, ECB minutes and a series of Chinese economic releases. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a webcast address by Chair Yellen on Thursday. However, the highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

FOMC Minutes Show "Considerable Uncertainty" About Trump Impact On Economy

Since The Fed decided unanimously to hike rates in mid-December, bonds, banks, and bullion are best but the broad stock market is lower. The key area of today's minutes was on the impact of Trump's policy agenda (which was the focus of Yellen's press conference), and they did note that there were "upside growth risks from fiscal policy" and this might mean Fed "needs to raise rates faster."

Risk On: 2017 Stock Rally Continues As Global Inflation Accelerates

Following another day of upbeat economic data, with growing signs that inflation on both sides of the Atlantic is accelerating, investors rediscovered their faith in the Trumpflation rally, pushing global stocks and US equity futures higher, fuelling a second day of 2017 equity gains ahead of today's release of the Fed's December minutes.