Consumer Confidence

RBC: "That Is VaR Crushing DV01 Destruction At Its Finest"

The absolute focus overnight / today is “core” macro though, as global developed market rates are being re-priced “risk manager style,” particularly with EGBs under MAJOR pressure as the buyside is caught wrong-footed (as I type, Slovak 10Y +7.2bps, Denmark 30Y +9.4bps, Netherlands 30Y +9.9bps, Finland 30Y +10.1bps, German 30Y +9.9bps, Austria 30Y +9.3bps…and even front-end seeing outsized moves with the Belgian 2Y +2.2bps).  That is VaR crushing DV01 destruction at its finest. 

Consumer Confidence 'Bounce' Dies, Plunges Most In 11 Months

For the first time since June, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence index declined YoY, plunging from near cycle highs at 104.1 (revised lower to 103.5) to 98.6 (missing 101.5 expectations), this is the biggest monthly plunge since Nov 2015, catching down to UMich and Bloomberg surveys. Employment and Business Conditions sentiment declined notably as did 'plans to buy' a home or appliance.

US Futures, Global Stocks, Metals Rise On Economic Confidence, Upbeat Earnings

European, Asian stocks and S&P futures are all up again in early trading, a repeat of the Monday session, buoyed by a generally upbeat corporate earnings season, rising economic confidence and signs of improvement in the world’s biggest economies. After Charles Evans' hawkish comments on Monday, the market is now pricing in a 71% chance of a rate increase this year, up from 68% last week.

Key Events In The Coming Week

Looking at the week ahead, the US election enters the home stretch and politics will likely dominate the headlines, especially the closer races in Congress. Despite data being overshadowed by politics, there are some key US releases coming up, with the first estimate of Q3 GDP, the employment cost index and durable goods the main focus.

Global Stocks Jump On Mega Merger Monday, Buoyed By Earnings, PMIs, Politics

Global stocks jumped around the globe, with Europe's Stoxx 600 and US equity futures rising more than 0.5% on a surge in merger announcements over the weekend including the $85 billion mega takeout of AT&T for Time Warner, the $6.4 billion acquisition of B/E Aerospace by Rockwell Collins, the $2.7 billion deal targeting Genworth by China Oceanwide and the just announced $4 billion purchase of Scotttrade by Ameritrade.

Futures Drop As ECB Confusion Persists, Dollar Rises To Seven Month High; Yuan Plunges

Asian stocks and S&P futures fall modestly and European shares are little changed as traders digested the surprising reticence from yesterday's ECB meeting. The dollar jumped to 7 month highs, pressuring EM currencies and pushing the euro to its weakest level since March and below the Brexit lows, after Mario Draghi shut down talk of tapering, while the Yuan dropped to the lowest since 2010.

Key Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week include industrial production on Monday, CPI on Tuesday, and housing starts on Wednesday. There are several scheduled speeches from Fed officials this week. The Beige Book for the November FOMC period will be released on Wednesday.