Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence Slumps As Inflation Expectations Crash To All-Time Lows

The "disinflationary mindset" remains as UMIch-reported medium-term inflation expectations plunge back to record lows. Headline consumer confidence also dropped to its lowest since 2016 lows in April driven by drop in 'hope' from the flash print - stuck at lowest levels since 2014.

With Janet Yellen Just Hours Away, Directionless Markets Wait For A Signal

With Yellen's much anticipated speech just hours away, the already comatose market flatlined overnight in another directionless session, with European stocks and US equity futures practically unchanged, while Asian shares to a two-week low, led by Japan, as investors showed a reluctance to take on risk before Yellen’s speech. The dollar was a tad lower, along with oil which is set for its first weekly drop in a month. 

S&P Set For New Record Highs As Futures, Dollar Rise; Oil Slides

In a rerun of yesterday's overnight session, European indexes trade higher while US index futures were modestly in the green, set to propel the S&P 500 to new all time highs. Emerging Market dropped the most in three weeks alongside commodities, as today the market was predisposed hawkishly on a US rate hike ahead of Yellen's Friday speech, pushing the US dollar higher and oil resumed its pre "anonymous sources" headlines slide.

Stocks Creep Higher As Dollar Resumes Falling, Oil Slides For Second Day

While the summer doldrums continue, with little market-moving newsflow overnight and zombified volumes, US futures crept higher and European shares rose after EU PMIs printed modestly better than expected, while a return to dollar weakness pushed emerging markets higher, even if it failed to boost oil which as we noted last night was downgraded by Goldman on various fundamental reasons.

Jackson Hole Looms: The Main Events In The Coming Week

The key economic releases this week are new home sales on Tuesday and durable goods on Thursday. However, the main event in what is one of the slowest summer weeks, will be the Jackson Hole symposium starting this Friday, where focus will be on Yellen's speech who will be scrutinized to see if she can bring the Fed's message back on track after several conflicting statements by Fed speakers in recent weeks.

US Futures Fall, European Stocks Rise As Stronger Dollar Sends Oil Lower

European stocks rose and US S&P futures fell after the dollar strengthened following the latest hawkish comments from Fed vice-chair Stanley Fischer signalled that a 2016 rate hike is still being considered and again boosted speculation that US rates will rise this year. The rising dollar pressured commodities and notably oil, which dropped 2% breaking a 7 days stretch of increases; emerging markets retreated. 

Global Stocks Rise, US Futures Near All Time Highs As Flood Into Emerging Markets Continues

European shares advanced, with gains in automakers  helping Germany’s benchmark DAX Index turn positive for the year for the first time. Stocks rose around the world, led by emerging-markets, as oil climbed further after its best week since April and traders pushed back bets on higher U.S. interest rates. S&P futures advance and Asian stocks little changed as rising oil prices bolstered investor sentiment.

Republican 'Comfort' Crashes To 2 Year Lows As Black Hope Tops White

The last few weeks have seen an historic shift in Americans' "comfort" levels. For the first time in 6 months, consumer confidence among black Americans is higher than that of white Americans, having soared in the last two weeks, during and following The DNC convention. However, perhaps even more worrying - for Trump - is the collapse in confidence among Republicans, now at 2-year lows. In fact, the spread between Democrats' confidence and Republicans' confidence has never been higher.

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

After last week's central bank and GDP fireworks, we have another busy week on deck culminating with Friday's jobs report, the 100% priced in BOE rate cut, as well as a possible easing by the RBA.Here is the full breakdown.

Euro Stocks Reverse Early Gains Dragged Lower By Slumping Banks; US Futures Flat; Crude Slides

Following last Friday's shocking weak US GDP print, Asian stocks jumped to an 11 month high on reduced prospects of a near-term rate hike, while the region also digested mostly encouraging in conflicting Chinese PMI data. European bank stocks initially rose following the release of the 2016 stress test then declined, tempering gains in global equity indexes, amid investor skepticism over the usefulness of stress-test results and weaker oil prices.

Oil Surges After OPEC Production Hits Record High: Here's Why

Despite the return of the record OPEC oil production, crude is now surging for one simple reason: oil is inversely correlated with the dollar. And thanks to today GDP shock, which showed that the US economy grew far slower than expected, the dollar has crashed. Confused? Don't be: "Dollar weakness follows disappointing U.S. GDP data, consumer confidence." As a result, ugly economic data has sent the dollar tumbling, oil soaring, and the S&P near all timehighs. Q.E.D.

"Hope"? Nope...!

Despite the protestations that everything will be awesome from Hillbama, the American people strongly disagree. The gap between tumbling 'expectations' (77.8) and 'current conditions' (109.0) is at its worst (least hopeful) since August 2006... shortly before overall confidence crashed in America.

Frontrunning: July 29

  • Yen, bond yields rise as Bank of Japan action underwhelms (Reuters); Bank of Japan Takes Modest Easing Action (WSJ)
  • Hong Kong shares end lower as BOJ disappointment sweeps Asia (Reuters)
  • Accepting White House nomination, Clinton offers 'clear-eyed' vision (Reuters)
  • Two Conventions, Two Distinct World Views (WSJ)
  • Democrats Emphasize American Exceptionalism at Convention (BBG)
  • Clinton’s Image Among Democrats at a Historic Low (WSJ)