Despite the return of the record OPEC oil production, crude is now surging for one simple reason: oil is inversely correlated with the dollar. And thanks to today GDP shock, which showed that the US economy grew far slower than expected, the dollar has crashed. Confused? Don't be: "Dollar weakness follows disappointing U.S. GDP data, consumer confidence." As a result, ugly economic data has sent the dollar tumbling, oil soaring, and the S&P near all timehighs. Q.E.D.