Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence Surges & Plunges

Everything is awesome... or terrible - depending on when you were asked. The Conference Board's consumer confidence surged to its highest since October 2015 at 98.1 (beating expectations of 96.5). However, Gallup shows economic confidence crashing back from a post-State of the Union bounce to its lowest since November 2015. Take your pick...

Key Events In The Coming Week: Fed, BOJ And More

Following a rerun of September 2015, when Draghi sent market expectations about ECB action sky-high only to massively disappoint in December (we will have to wait until March to see if it is deja vu all over again) last week, this week is just as big for central bank jawboning with the FOMC (Wednesday) and the BoJ meeting on Friday, with hopes that they will at least hint of more easing if not actually do much.

Exposing The Fiction Of Mainstream Macroeconomics (In 9 Simple Questions)

The game is simple: we know that macroeconomics is a fiction from top to bottom, the challenge is to expose it as such. Here are some apparently innocent questions to ask of economists, journalists, financial commentators and central bankers, which are designed to expose the contradictions in their economic beliefs. A pretence of economic ignorance by the questioner is best, because it is most disarming.

Fruit, Vegetable Prices Soar In Canada: "If You Insist On Eating Tomatoes, You're Going To Pay For It"

"Going forward I think we’ll see even higher upward pressure on imported fruits and vegetables. If not for weather conditions, certainly that low Canadian dollar will affect it. Because the numbers we’re talking about today are from December and now in January we’re almost five to six per cent lower on that dollar….If people insist on eating fresh tomatoes and pineapple in January, they’ll be forced to pay for it.

Global Stocks Surge, Oil Soars As Hopes For Central Bank Stimulus Return

"There is hope of more stimulus in March and potential for even more stimulus in Japan and China, so if we get concrete positive economic news the rebound could last into next week,” said John Plassard, senior equity- sales trader at Mirabaud Securities. “I told my clients to fasten their seatbelts and wait for better news, and this is finally happening."... "The turnaround in sentiment came amid signs central banks may be prepared to act after $7.8 trillion was erased from the value of global equities this year on China’s slowdown and oil’s crash."

Recession Signs - 2008 & Now

Is the economy “nowhere near recession?” Maybe. Maybe not. But the charts above look extremely similar to where we were at this point in late 2007 and early 2008. Could this time be “different?” Sure. But historically speaking, it never has been.


Crash Risk & The Imminent Likelihood Of Recession

"... there is presently an enormous chasm between the point where self-reinforcing selling pressure by speculators is likely to emerge, and the much lower point where balancing buying pressure by value-conscious investors is likely to support the market. Because every seller necessarily requires a buyer, the enormous gap between the two represents substantial crash risk."

Guest Post: 2016 - Year Of The 'Epocalypse'

As the towering forces that are prevailing against failing global economic architecture and the pit of debt beneath that structure, as laid out below, it is clear that the 'Epocalypse' - encompassing the roots "economic, epoch, collapse" and "apocalypse" - is here, and it is everywhere. The Great Collapse has already begun. What follows are the megatrends that will increasingly gang up in the first part of 2016 to stomp the deeply flawed global economy down into its own hole of debt.

Frontrunning: January 8

  • U.S. jobs market seen fairly healthy despite slowing economy (Reuters)
  • China State Funds Said to Buy More Shares After Market Rout (BBG)
  • Global Stocks Gain Some Respite (WSJ)
  • U.S. Jobs Data Take on Added Importance With Markets in Turmoil (BBG)
  • GOP Health Plans Are Works in Progress (WSJ)
  • For economy czar of crisis-hit Venezuela, inflation 'does not exist' (Reuters)

Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling

Once China set the Yuan fixing some 0.5% lower, the biggest drop since the August devaluation, all hell broke loose and unleashed a global selling panic after China's stock market was promptly shut down less than 30 minutes into trading, then European shares dropped the most in more than 4 months as Asian equities plunges, as did US stock futures, the dollar weakened against the euro and the yen; crude plunged to fresh 12 year lows. Gold rose.

Young Americans' Confidence In Economy Surges As Hopes Of "55 And Older" Shatter

Consumer Confidence among Over-55 Americans is at its lowest since September 2014. On the other hand, confidence among the Under-35 generation is its highest in 9 years (as the lowest income earners saw the largest surge in confidence in history - from 44.2. to 73.4). The 'optimism' gap between young and old Americans has never, ever been greater, which is ironic since it is the 55-and-older generation who have record jobs (while those 25-54 have collapsed since the great recession).

Global Stocks Rebound, US Stocks To Reopen Back In The Green For 2015 As Oil Halts Slide

Santa Claus is cutting it close: after stocks closed down yesterday, and just fractionally red for the year, the jolly old gift-giver (who now has activist investors breathing down his neck) has just three trading days to push if not stocks then the market into the green for the year. And so far, so good, with US equity futures rising by 8 points or 0.4%, on the back of some modest renewed Dollar strength but mostly on oil, which after yesterday's big slide, has managed to stem the decline and is up fractionally, just under $37, along with other commodities if not copper, which falls for second day.