Consumer Confidence

Global Stocks Slide As Iron Ore Crashes; Pound Jumps After UK Calls Snap Elections

European stocks slide  s traders return from a 4-day Easter holidays, Asian equities likewise drop pressured by the ongoing rout in iron ore, while U.S. stock-index futures point to a lower open. British markets were roiled after U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would seek an early election on June 8. The FTSE 100 droped 1.3%, on the news, hitting the lowest since Feb. 24

Key Events In The Coming Week: French Election, Earnings, Manufacturing, Housing

This week will be dominated by the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. On the data side, following China's strong economic report, attention will focus on US industrial production growth on Tuesday. In the euro area, flash PMIs for April due on Friday could point to moderation. This is also the first full corporate earnings week.

Jim Quinn Asks "Will Trump Accept Responsibility When This Shitshow Implodes?"

Donald J. Trump has taken credit for making America’s economy great again. He’s been crowing about all the jobs being created, the soaring consumer confidence and record highs in the stock market. It’s all because the Donald has inspired Americans about our glorious future.

But, a funny thing has been happening in the real world. The economy has gone into the shitter and GDP will be lucky to reach 1% in the first quarter of his presidency.

What Happens When The Fed Warns The Market Is Overvalued

While investors hang on every dovish word bluffed from a venerable Fed speaker's mouth, the cognitive dissonance when something negative is uttered is stunning. Since Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" moment, asset-gatherers and commission-takers have advised ignoring Fedspeak on stocks... historically, that was a mistake for investors.

Stupid Is As Stupid Does

If you prefer fake news, fake data, and a fake narrative about an improving economy and stock market headed to 30,000, don’t read this fact based, reality check article.

Key Events In The Coming Busy Week: Payrolls; FOMC Minutes; Trump Meets Xi

The key economic releases in the US this week are ISM manufacturing on Monday, ISM non-manufacturing on Wednesday, and the employment report on Friday. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday, while several Fed officials are scheduled to speak this week. The meeting between Trump and Xi set for Thursday and Friday at Mar-A-Lago will likely attract significant attention.

Hedge Fund CIO: "What If The 'Trump Earnings Surge' Was Just An Illusion?"

"Why is the yield curve flattening? Why is loan demand declining? Why is consumer confidence at historic highs while retailer stocks are getting demolished? What happens if he can’t cut corporate taxes? What happens if we’ve recalibrated earnings to a future that was just an illusion?"

High Number Of Consumers See Stock Rally As "Sure Thing"

Gathering bullishness is great for stocks and the prospects for a rally. Once that bullishness hits an extreme, however. the prospects change. Based on the UM Survey Of Consumers, sentiment towards stocks has reached an extreme. And based on that alone, expectations for the next 12 months should be tempered.

Margin Debt Hits New Record High But Analysts Say "Don’t Worry"

"This isn’t a signal to me that markets are reaching an exuberant level like they did in the 1920s or 1990s, when speculation was rampant.  What our clients are doing is borrowing against the portfolios because interest rates are so low. They’re not leveraging up because they see the market exploding to the upside; they’re using leverage because they can pay it off at any time.”

Are Markets Overlooking A Clear & Present Danger?

Economic cycles do not last indefinitely. While fiscal and monetary policies can extend cycles by “pulling forward” future consumption, such actions create an eventual “void” that cannot be filled. In fact, there is mounting evidence the “event horizon” may have been reached as seen through the lens of auto sales.