Consumer Confidence

An Odd Disconnect: Consumer Confidence At 12 Year HIgh As Inflation Expectations Tumble To All Time Lows

In an odd divergence, the latest UMichigan consumer sentiment print hit a 12 year high, rising from 93.8 in November to 98.2, even as long-term inflation expectation, those in the 5-10 year bucket, dropped from 2.50% to 2.30%, a new all time low print. However, confirming the political bias behind the report, UMich chief economist Richard Curtin said that "sentiment is likely to fall in coming months."

Something Wicked This Way Comes

"The narrative about an improving economy, thriving jobs market, and glorious future is bullshit. I know it. You know it. And your establishment puppeteers know it. But only “fake news” sites would dare reveal these inconvenient truths."

2016 Year-End Bull/Bear Debate

As we head into 2017, trying to predict the markets is often quite pointless. The risk for investors is “willful blindness” that builds when complacency reaches extremes. It is worth remembering that the bullish mantra we hear today is much the same as it was in both 1999 and 2007. We don’t need to remind you what happened next.

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.

Satellite Imagery Reveals Sharp Retail Spending Slowdown After The Election

Defying consensus, JPM found retail spending activity trends "worsened post the election contrary to stock market moves and color from some management teams" when analyzing satellite image car counts at parking lots. It finds that this is "interesting as it is counter to prevailing thought."

What's Behind The Relentless Market Surge? RBC Explains

"We continue to see obvious re-risking in the form of “buy everything” price-action, as investors push further out onto the risk curve against a shift away from the 5+ year narrative of “secular stagnation” towards positioning that allows capture of “reflation animal spirits.”

Key Events In The Coming Weeks: Italy Aftermath, ECB, ISM, Consumer Confidence

The key economic releases this week are ISM non-manufacturing on Monday and University of Michigan consumer sentiment index on Friday. Away from the US economic calendar, initially focus will be on the Italian referendum result, which appears to have been mostly digested by the market as bullish. It will then shift quickly to a critical ECB meeting.