Consumer Confidence

Futures Fade Early Bounce, Slide In Illiquid Tape As Yen Rises, Oil Drops

Government bonds rose and the yen strengthened as investors weighed the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next increase in interest rates and the outlook for inflation. Commodities slid, led by metals, while stocks in Europe declined. Treasury 30-year yields fell for a third day. The yen rose from near this month’s low. Futures on the S&P 500 also declined after initially jumping higher in thinly traded, illiquid tape.

The Economy In Pictures: Weakness Continues

While there is currently a plethora of commentary strongly suggesting that the U.S. economy is nowhere near recession, it should be remembered the economy has NEVER been in a recession until future negative data revisions revealed it to be the case. Unfortunately, for investors, by the time a recession is widely recognized and accepted by the mainstream media and analysts, it will be far too late to do anything about it.

Futures Flat Despite China Scare As Oil Rebounds Over $47

The main risk over the weekend was that markets, which have now dropped for three consecutive weeks the longest negative streak since January, would focus their attention on the latest batch of negative Chinese economic news released over the weekend, which missed expectations across the board, most prominently in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, and following Friday's disappointing new credit loan data, would sell off as the Chinese slowdown once again becomes a dominant concern. However, after some initial weakness, the risks were all but gone when first the USDJPY jumped on another round of deflationary Japanese economic data which led to renewed hopes of more BOJ easing and a jump in the USDJPY and thus US futures.

"Hope" Spikes Most Since 2011 As UMich Consumer Confidence Hits 11 Month Highs

Consumer Expectations, according to University of Michigan, soared by the most since Dec 2011 in May's preliminary data - spiking from 77.6 to 87.5. Despite a modest rise in current confidence, this spike in "hope" was enough to send the headline confidence print to 95.8, 11-month highs and well above expectations of just 89.5. Despite confidence rising, inflation expectations tumbled (1Y from 2.8% to 2.5%).

Goldman Closes "Short Gold" Recommendation With 4.5% Loss; Will Continue Buying Gold From Its Clients

Iit took just two and a half months for Goldman to get officially stopped out of its short gold recommendation, which as we first noted, happened on April 29, when its the price soared above $1,300 breaching Goldman's stop. Officially, Goldman's Jeff Currie decided to take his time, although he too finally threw in the towel today admitting Goldman was wrong yet again with one more trading recommendation (recall that Goldman had earlier been stopped out and lost money on 5 of its Top 6 trades for 2016 in just over a month).

USDJPY Plunges As Dollar Drops To 11 Month Lows, Commodities Rise

Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014 before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result, global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.

Global Stocks Plunge After Bank Of Japan "Shock"

Less than one week after the BOJ floated a trial balloon using Bloomberg, that it would reduce the rate it charged some banks which set off the biggest USDJPY rally since October 2014, we are back where we started following last night's "completely unexpected" (for everyone else: we wrote "What If The BOJ Disappoints Tonight: How To Trade It" hours before said "shock") shocking announcement out of the BOJ which did absolutely... nothing. "It’s a total shock,” Nader Naeimi, Sydney- based head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors told Bloomberg. "From currencies to equities to everything -- you can see the reaction in the markets. I can’t believe this. It’s very disappointing."

Futures Ignore Apple Plunge; Oil Rises Above $45 As Yellen Looms

For those who thought that the world's biggest company losing over $40 billion in market cap in an instant on disappointing Apple earnings, would have been sufficient to put a dent in US equity futures, we have some disappointing news: with just over 7 hours until the FOMC reveals its April statement, futures are practically unchanged, even though the Nasdaq appears set for an early bruising in the aftermath of what is becoming a disturbing quarter for tech companies. Instead of tech leading, however, the upside has once again come from the energy complex where moments ago WTI rose above $45 a barrel for the first time since November after yesterday's unexpected 1.07 million barrel API inventory drawdown.

Aussie Dollar Plunges As Inflation Slumps To Record Low

Despite surging commodity prices in China - which must be real and represent demand growth and price increases, right? - Aussie core inflation slowed to the weakest on record as headline prices unexpectedly fell last quarter (CPI -0.2%). RBA Rate-cut odds tripled instantly sending AUD down over 1.2% (its biggest drop in 2 months). Perhaps, just perhaps, that collossal credit injection in Q1 via China did not make it into the AsiaPac economy after all and merely fueled a speculative frenzy in commodities that merely "looks" like a recovery?

Consumer Confidence Stagnant Since The End Of QE3 As Wage Growth Hopes Fade

We're gonna need more money-printing. Consumer Confidence dropped in April to 94.2, missing expectations of 95.8 and hovering at its lowest in 2 years. In fact, the current level is relatively unchanged since the end of QE3, despite all the recent surges in stocks as the post-2009 94% correlation between the S&P 500 and confidence is breaking down rapidly and ruining The Fed's animal spirits' party. Most crucially, income growth expectations are tumbling as The Conference Board suggests American consumers "do not foresee any pickup in momentum."

As Fed Meeting Begins Futures Are Flat In Sleepy Session; Apple Earnings On Deck

With the Fed decision just one day away, followed the very next day by the increasingly more irrational BOJ, stocks had no desire to make significant moves and overnight's boring session was the result, as European stocks and U.S. index futures rose modestly but mostly hugged the flatline while Asian declined 0.2% for a third day as raw-material shares declined and Tokyo equities slumped before central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan this week. China’s stocks rose the most in almost two weeks, up 0.6% but failed to rise above 3000 on the Shanghai Composite, in thin trading.

GoldCore's picture

There is no smell here: metal has none. There is no noise, either, on account of the vaults’ thick concrete walls. What there is, however, is one of the world’s most important traded assets. Deals are still done in gold in almost every country in the world. Its price is a crucial barometer for consumer confidence. Prices rise when markets are uncertain, and before US elections – like now.