Consumer Confidence

Frontrunning: July 8

  • Snipers kill five Dallas police; Obama calls it 'despicable' attack (Reuters)
  • Global stocks regain ground, Treasury near record low as U.S. jobs data looms (Reuters)
  • House Republicans Push for New Hillary Clinton Investigation (WSJ)
  • Obama urges NATO to stand firm against Russia despite Brexit (Reuters)
  • Kremlin says NATO talk of Russian threat absurd, short-sighted (Reuters)

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

Confidence Crushed Despite Collapsing Jobless Claims

The trend of jobless claims continues lower (despite a modest 10k rise this week to 268k from a revised lower 258k last week). The problem is... as we have shown numerous times, this 'measure' of the labor market appears to have seasinally adjusted itself into being totally-useless as an indicator of anything factual. With Consumer Confidence for over-55s at its lowest in 2 years, it seems the job exuberance is just not rubbing off...

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."

When It Comes To The US Economy, The Age Divide Has Never Been Wider

Despite a rise in headline consumer confidence, there are increasingly gaping divergences between various cohorts that suggest all is not well in America. Regionally, Pacific 'confidence' has surged while New England has plunged. Plans to buy a car or a major appliance or a home all dropped, with the latter at its lowest in 10 months. But most worrisome is the record divide between 'young' and 'old' Americans confidence in the US economy...

Global Stocks Rebound, US Futures Jump On Expectation Of "Coordinated Intervention By Central Banks"

After a historic two-day selloff, which as shown yesterday slammed European banks by the most on record the wildly oversold conditions, coupled with hopes for yet another global, coordinated central bank intervention, coupled with modest hope that David Cameron's trip to Brussels today may resolve some of the Article 50 gridlock, have been sufficient to prompt a modest buying scramble among European stocks in early trading, with the pound and commodities all gaining for the first time since the shock Brexit vote.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?

European Stocks, US Futures Extend Slide On UK Chaos, Pound Carnage

With global asset correlations once again approaching 1, overnight stocks have been trading in broadly "risk off" mode, following every twist of pound sterling and the rapidly deteriorating British financial situation as "chaos infects" virtually all markets, from China, to European banks, to US equity futures.  As a result of ongoing aftershocks from the Brexit vote, coupled with the sudden political chaos in UK politics, where both parties now seem in disarray, with the pound has extended its selloff to a fresh 31-year low dropping below the Friday lows while European equities are dropping to levels last seen in February.

UBS CIO Warns "The Status Quo Is Over... Get Used To It"

"The status quo in Europe is over. We will have to get used to this. Political risk has risen, and we will be dependent on central bank interventions, the calmness of markets, and measured political decision-making to keep the world's economic growth momentum and thus support risk assets."

Voting Begin: Stocks Surge, Sterling Hits 2016 Highs, Futures Flirt With 2100

On the day voting for the UK referendum finally began, what started off as a trading session with a modest upward bias, promptly turned into a buying orgy in painfully illiquid markets shortly after Europe opened as an influx of buy orders pushed European stocks 2% higher, propelled by cable which was above 1.49 for the first time since December and USDJPY climbing over 1.05 in sympathy, following the release of the final Ipsos Mori poll which showed Remain at 52% to 48% for leave.