Consumer Confidence

Consumer Confidence Spikes Near 8-Year High Amid Global Turmoil But "Hope" Fades

For the second month in a row, US Consumer Confidence (according to The Conference Board) soared in September. Printing 103.00 (smashing expectations of 96.8) in September, this is just shy of January's high going back to August 2007. The biggest driver of this seemingly odd exuberance (amid global escalation in financial and physical wars) is the Present Situation (up from 115.8 to 121.1) while "hope" dropped from 91.6 to 91.0. As The Conference Board concludes, "while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

US Futures Resume Tumble, Commodities Slide As Chinese "Hard-Landing" Fears Take Center Stage

It was all about China once again, where following a report of a historic layoff in which China's second biggest coal producer Longmay Group fired an unprecedented 100,000 or 40% of its workforce, overnight we got the latest industrial profits figure which plunging -8.8% Y/Y was the biggest drop since at least 2011, and which the National Bureau of Statistics attributed to "exchange rate losses, weak stock markets, falling industrial goods prices as well as a bigger rise in costs than increases in revenue." In not so many words: a "hard-landing."

UMich Consumer Confidence Tumbles To Lowest Since October, Worst Drop In 4 Years

Despite rising modestly from the preliminary print, UMich Consumer Sentiment for September finalised at 87.2 - the lowest since October 2014. This is now the biggest 8-month drop since 2011. Inflation expectations fell modestly as "hope" fell to the lowest level since September. Household Income gain expectations continue to slide (now just 1%) back to 13 month lows.

Futures Surge On Renewed "Hopes" Of Fed Rate Hike, Sliding Yen

The market, which clearly ignored the glaring contradictions in Yellen's speech which said that overseas events should not affect the Fed's policy path just a week after the Fed statement admitted it is "monitoring developments abroad", and also ignored Yellen explicit hint that NIRP is coming (only the size is unclear), and focused on the one thing it wanted to hear: a call to buy the all-critical USDJPY carry pair - because more dollar strength apparently is what the revenue and earnings recessioning S&P500 needs - which after trading around 120 in the past few days, had a 100 pip breakout overnight, hitting 121 just around 5am, in the process pushing US equity futures some 25 points higher at last check.

Stocks Tumble As Emissions Scandal Spreads To BMW; NOK Plunges On Unexpected Norway Rate Cut

European equity have been weighed on by BMW after reports in German press that the Co.'s emission tests for their X3 model could show worse results than that of the Volkswagen Passat. The Norwegian and Taiwanese central banks have both cut interest rates, taking the number of central banks to cut rates this year to 40. Today's highlights include US weekly jobs data and durable goods orders as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Fed's Yellen. Of note US data, including jobless claims, durables and home sales will be delayed today & not released to newswires 1st due to Pope's visit

Government Shutdown & Debt Limit Questions Answered

A federal shutdown due to a funding lapse looks no less likely than it did two weeks ago, and Goldman Sachs believes the probability is nearly 50%. The Senate is expected to begin voting later this week on a funding extension, but the House looks unlikely to act until shortly before the September 30 deadline. The following attempts to answer the main questions surrounding the shutdown, debt limit deadlines, and ramifications...

Key Events In The Coming Post-FOMC Week

In the week following the Fed's admission it is not only market-driven but now has a 4th mandate, which is to respond to China's hard landing on a day-to-day basis, US macro events mecrifully slow down to give everyone a chance to digest what the Fed just did. Here are the highlights.

Global Stocks, EM FX Extend Losses Despite China Saying "No Collapse Is Nigh"

US equity futures have retraced the late-day ramp from Friday with Dow down around 65pts. Asia is opening weaker (NKY -900 from Thursday highs) with EM FX appearing not to get the "but we didn't hike" message from The Fed with MYR the worst hit for now (after a few days of strength). EM outflows accelerated according to Morgan Stanley, down 6% AUM in 12 weeks. PBOC devalued the Yuan fix by 0.11% (the most in 2 weeks). While Fed uncertainty and fears about China have caused global derisking, PBOC chief Fan says "the economy is stable," and China's Beige Book suggests 'everything is awesome', as the survey summarizes, "perceptions of China may be more thoroughly divorced from facts on the ground than at any time in our nearly five years of surveying the economy." If that's the case, then why is Janet in panic mode?