Consumer Confidence

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Daily US Opening News And Market Re-Cap: July 10





European equities are seen firmly in the green at the North-American crossover, with outperformance noted in the peripheral bourses. Overnight news from the Eurogroup has confirmed that the EFSF/ESM rescue funds will be given the powers to intervene in the secondary bond markets, easing sentiment towards the European laggard economies. Gains are being led by a particularly strong technology sector, with the riskier financials and basic materials also making solid progress. Asset classes across the board in Europe are benefiting from risk appetite, with the Bund seen lower and both the Spanish and Italian 10-yr yields coming below their key levels of 7% and 6% respectively. The moves follow a spurt of activity in Europe with a number of factors assisting the way higher.

 


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Frontrunning: July 6





  • Beggars can't be choosers after all: Greece Drops Demand to Ease Bailout Terms (FT)
  • It took journalists 4 years to get that under ZIRP all banks have to be hedge funds: US Banks Taking Risks in Search of Yield (FT)
  • Made-In-London Scandals Risk City Reputation As Money Center (Bloomberg)
  • Merkel Approval Rises to Highest Since 2009 After EU Summit (Bloomberg)
  • Judge orders JPMorgan to explain withholding emails (Reuters)
  • U.S. hiring seen stuck in low gear in June (Reuters)
  • Germans Urged to Block Merkel on Integration (WSJ)
  • Crony Capitalism Rules: Countrywide used VIP program to sway Congress (Reuters)
  • Barclays’ US Deal Rewrites Libor Process (FT)
  • Cyprus Juggles EU and Russian Support (FT)
  • Delay Seen (Again) For New Rules on Accounting (WSJ)
  • Lagarde Says IMF to Cut Growth Outlook as Global Economy Weakens (Bloomberg)
 


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Re-Election Hopes? "It's Obama's Economy, Stupid!"





While it is seeming common knoweldge that the state of the economy has a significant bearing on the outcome of the presidential election in the US, Barclays notes that in the case of an incumbent running, economic performance appears to be most important. The three presidents who failed in a re-election bid in the post-war period (Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush, Sr. in 1992) did so against a backdrop of weak growth, high unemployment, and low consumer confidence. These same factors all pose significant headwinds to the current incumbent. To overcome them, history suggests that unemployment would need to keep trending down and consumer sentiment would need to strengthen prior to the vote in November.

 


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Guest Post: Who Destroyed The Middle Class - Part 3





Forty five years after the War on Poverty began, there are 49 million Americans living in poverty. That’s a solid good return on the $16 trillion spent so far. It’s on par with the 16 year zero percent real return in the stock market. We have produced a vast underclass of ignorant, uneducated, illiterate, dependent people who have become a huge voting block for the Democratic Party. Politicians, on the left, promise more entitlements to these people in order to get elected. Politicians on the right will not cut the entitlements for fear of being branded as uncaring. The Republicans agree to keep the welfare state growing and the Democrats agree to keep the warfare state growing -bipartisanship in all its glory. And the middle class has been caught in a pincer movement between the free shit entitlement army and the free shit corporate army. The oligarchs have been incredibly effective at using their control of the media, academia and ideological think tanks to keep the middle class ire focused upon the lower classes. While the middle class is fixated on people making $13,400 per year, the ultra-wealthy are bribing politicians to pass laws and create tax loopholes, netting them billions of ill-gotten loot. These specialists at Edward Bernays propaganda techniques were actually able to gain overwhelming support from the middle class for the repeal of estate taxes by rebranding them “death taxes”, even though the estate tax only impacts 15,000 households out of 117 million households in the U.S. The .01% won again.

 


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Richmond Fed Plunges; Consumers Underconfident For The Fourth Month In A Row





...But at least housing has bottomed (it so difficult to even write that with a straight face). Our two economic indicators today continued the tradition of the last 2 months and both missed, with the Richmond Fed sliding to -3 on expectations of a +2 print, and down from +4: the lowest number since October 2011. And the other data point hinting to the Fed that it is needs to do something now, was the June Consumer Confidence number, which was lower 4 months in a row (for the first time since May 2008), and which declined from 64.4 to 62.0, missing expectations of 63.0, and the lowest since January, undoing all transitory, S&P500 driven gains of the year.

 


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Frontrunning: June 26





  • On the continuing fraud that is Liebor: Libor Guardians Said to Resist Changes to Broken Rate (Bloomberg)
  • Bank bailout to spark firesale of corporate Spain (Reuters) with Goldman and China just waiting
  • EU Could Rewrite Eurozone Budgets (FT) but it won't because Germany will just say Nein again
  • Congress Said to Delay Automatic Budget Cuts Until March (Bloomberg)
  • China Says June Trade Improving in Sign Slowdown Stabilizing (Bloomberg)
  • Biggest U.S. Banks Curb Loans as Regional Firms Fill Gap (Bloomberg)
  • New York Fed Sells $4bn in Mortgage Debt (FT)
  • Julian Assange’s fall from the heavens (Reuters)
  • Wheeler to Lead N.Z. Central Bank as Kiwi Hits Exports: Economy (Bloomberg)
  • Japan Lower House Passes Sales Tax Bill as Vote Divides DPJ (Bloomberg)
 


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Key Events In The Coming Week And A Preview Of Yet Another European Summit





Goldman recaps the past tumultuous week, and looks at events in the next 7 days, of which the key feature will be the next "latest and greatest" and most disappointing European summit on Thursday and Friday, where not even Greece is going any longer, and which not even the most resolute Europhiles expect to resolve anything: "The key event of next week is the EU summit. The latest European Economics Analyst details our expectations. In brief we expect to see finalization of the much-anticipated growth compact, involving financing for infrastructure investment and a restatement of the agenda for structural reform. We also expect announcement of a plan for ‘banking union’ in the Euro area, even if, owing to unresolved political differences, details are likely to remain sketchy on key issues—notably on how the implicit cost of providing fiscal backing for the Euro area banking system will be shared across countries."

 


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Guest Post: The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting





fed-revisions-gdptable-062112Beginning in 2011 the Federal Reserve begin releasing its economic forecast for the present year and two years forward covering GDP, Unemployment, and Inflation.  The question is after 18 months of forecasting - just how good has the Fed at forecasting these economic variables?  I have compiled the data from each of the releases for each category and compared it to the real figures and used a current trend analysis for future estimates.... The Fed has been slowly guiding economic forecasts lower since 2011.  The reality is that 2.6% economic growth is not a boon of economic prosperity, corporate profitability, increasing incomes or a secular bull market.  It is also not the "death of America" or the return to the stone age.  What is important to understand, as investors, is the impact on investment portfolios, expectated real rates of returns and the realization that higher levels of market volatility with more frequent "booms and busts" are here to stay.

 


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Frontrunning: June 22





  • Mario Monti: We Have a Week to Save the Eurozone (Guardian)
  • Europe Central Bank Prepares to Relax Collateral Rules (WSJ)
  • EU Banks' Risk in Eyes of Beholder: Worry Is That Lenders Are Boosting Gauge of Their Health (WSJ)
  • Europe finally learns about subordination: Bailouts' Creditor Hierarchy Scares Private Bondholders (WSJ)
  • Merkel Isolated in Race for Euro Crisis Solution (Spiegel)
  • Fed’s Re-Twist May Lift Treasury Repurchase Agreement Rates (Bloomberg)
  • China Said to Propose Keeping Limit on Local Government Loans (Bloomberg)
  • Moody’s Downgrade Hits 15 Top Banks (FT)
  • IMF Challenges Berlin’s Crisis Response (FT)
  • Colombia to Auction Rights in 2013 to Gold and Coal, Not Coltan (Bloomberg)
 


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Consumer Confidence Plunges, Biggest Miss Since February 2006





Following misses to expectations in every single economic data point for the past week, not to mention today's Empire Index, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization we just got the latest June University of Michigan Consumer Confidence number which, lo and behold, printed at 74.1 on expectations of 77.5, and a plunge from May's 79.3. In brief, this was the biggest miss to expectations since February of 2006. If this latest economic datapoint abortion does not send the market soaring, nothing will.

 


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Key Events In The Coming Week





The past week was dominated by the Eurogroup statement over the weekend that Spain will seek financial support for its banks. According to the statement, Spain intends to make a formal request soon, with financial assistance expected to be around EUR100 bn and to come from the EFSF or ESM. Aid will be channeled through the FROB, and will increase the debt burden of the Spanish sovereign. There will be no macro or fiscal conditionality as in the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, but only on bank sector restructuring. That said, there will be monitoring of the deficit and structural reforms as part of this bailout, though no conditionality, and the IMF is also invited to monitor progress under the program. Separately, the week also saw lots of commentary out of the Fed, including from Chairman Bernanke and Vice Chair Yellen. Looking to the week ahead, the key question for us is where to harvest excessive risk premia, bearing in mind that the Greek elections are around the corner.. In terms of policy talk and data, for the former Fed chatter ends on Tuesday when the blackout period begins ahead of the FOMC on June 19/20. For the latter, US retail sales and industrial production will be important to watch as we head into the FOMC next week.

 


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Analysts' Kneejerk Response To Bernanke Speech: "No New Easing Hints"





Less than an hour ago Zero Hedge was happy to point out the glaringly obvious.

Shortly thereafter, Bernanke confirmed it. Now it is Wall Street's turn to join in.

 


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