Consumer Confidence

Tyler Durden's picture

10 Alternative Headlines For An Exuberant Equity Week





Sometimes it is what is not discussed among the mainstream media that is most critical to understanding the new normal...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Is A "Liquidity Trap" And Why Is Bernanke Caught In It?





Much has ben written lately about the fact that the Federal Reserve is beginning to realize that they are caught in a "liquidity trap."  However, what exactly is a "liquidity trap?" And perhaps more importantly how did we end up in it - and how do we get out?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Consumer Confidence Misses For First Time In 2013





In an odd reversal of recent trends, the future expectations sub-index of the UMich consumer confidence survey fell (lowest in 3 months) as the current rose notably (to its highest in 6 years). Is hope fading? Perhaps it is the spike in gas prices? Or the spike in mortgage rates? Critically though, this is the first miss of expectations since December 2012 as inflation expectations also surged to the highs of the year.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 8





  • Greece's Economic Future 'Uncertain,' Creditors Say (WSJ)
  • Secret Court's Redefinition of 'Relevant' Empowered Vast NSA Data-Gathering (WSJ)
  • Thomson Reuters Halts Early Peeks At Consumer Data (WSJ)
  • Larry Summers Circles as Fed Opening Looms (WSJ)
  • S&P to Argue Puffery Defense in First Courtroom Test (BBG)
  • Geithner joins top table of public speakers with lucrative appearances (FT)
  • Losing $317 Billion Makes U.S. Debt Safer for Mizuho to HSBC (BBG)
  • Pilot Error Eyed in San Francisco Plane Crash  (WSJ)
  • Investment group sues U.S. over Fannie, Freddie bailout terms (Reuters)
  • Egypt officials 'order closure of Islamist party HQ' (AFP)
  • Heinz Kerry Transferred to Boston Hospital for Treatment (BBG) - a boating accident?
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Is The Low In Place For Gold?





Citi's FX Technicals group is biased to believe that the low in this correction may have been posted for Gold. Here's why...

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: July 5





  • Egypt Girds for Muslim Brotherhood Protests (WSJ)
  • SAC Capital's Steven Cohen Expected to Avoid Criminal Charges (WSJ)
  • SAC insider-trading probe could last years (Reuters)
  • RBI seen selling dollars around 60.59 levels: dealers (Reuters)
  • China signals will cut off credit to rebalance economy (Reuters)
  • Egypt army arrests key Muslim Brotherhood figures (BBC)
  • Rise in Steel Prices Alarms Buyers (WSJ)
  • Draghi-Carney Seek Independence Day Break From Bernanke (BBG)
  • Samsung Warns Results Will Miss Forecasts (WSJ)
  • Russia Prosecutor Seeks 6 Years in Jail for Putin Critic Navalny (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Gold Bug Bashing, 1976 Edition





The New York Times had the definitive take on the vicious sell off in gold. The analysis provides a good representation of the current conventional wisdom. The only twist here is that the article from which this summary is derived appeared in the August 29, 1976 edition of The New York Times. At that time gold was preparing to embark on an historic rally that would push it up more than 700% a little over three years later. Is it possible that the history is about to repeat itself?

 
Pivotfarm's picture

Gold Plunges!





Gold has gone down Friday to under $1, 200 an ounce and that means it’s reached its lowest point for the past three years. Worse than that: it’s been the worst quarterly performance for gold for 45 years!

 
Tyler Durden's picture

More Fed Jawboning On Deck To Usher Green Close To First Half Of 2013





Overnight newsflow (which nowadays has zero impact on markets which only care what Ben Bernanke had for dinner) started in Japan where factory orders were reported to have risen the most since December 2011, retail sales climbed, the unemployment rate rose modestly, consumer prices stayed flat compared to a year ago, however real spending plunged -1.6% significantly below the market consensus forecast for +1.3% yoy, marking the first yoy decline in five months. This suggests that households are cutting utility costs more so than the level of increase in prices. By contrast, real spending on clothing and footwear grew sharply by 6.9% yoy (+0.6% in April) marking positive growth for a fourth consecutive month. Simply said, the Japanese reflation continues to be limited by the lack of wage growth even as utility and energy prices are exploding and limiting the potential for core inflation across the board.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Market Mania Tapered In Quiet Overnight Session





It's almost as if the manic-depressive market has gotten exhausted with the script of surging overnight volatility, and following a week of breathless global "taper tantrumed" trading, tonight's gentle ramp seems modest by comparison to recent violent swings. With no incremental news out of China, the Shanghai composite ended just modestly lower, the Nikkei rushed higher to catch up to the USDJPY implied value, Europe has been largely muted despite better than expected news out of Germany on the unemployment front. This however was offset by a decline in Europe's May M3 (from 3.2% to 2.9%) while bank lending to NFCs and households simply imploded, confirming that there is no hope for a Keynesian, insolvent Europe in which there isn't any credit creation either by commercial banks or by the central bank (and in fact there is ongoing deleveraging across the board). US futures are rangebound with ES just shy of 1,500. We will need some truly ugly data in today's economic docket which includes claims, personal income/spending and pending home sales to push stocks that next leg higher. To think the S&P could have been higher by triple digits yesterday if the final Q1 GDP has just printed red. Failing that, the Fed's doves jawboning may be sufficient for a 100+ DJIA points today with Dudley, Lockhart and Powell all set to speak later today.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Lifted By Verbal Cental Banker Exuberance





Once again it is all about central banks, with early negative sentiment heading into Asian trading - following the disappointing announcement from the PBOC about "ample liquidity" leading to the 6th consecutive drop in the Shanghai Composite while the PenNikkeiStock index tumbled yet again -  completely erased and flipped as Mario Draghi spoke, although not to explain his involvement with the latest European derivative window-dressing scandal, but to announce that he is, once again, "ready to act" (supposedly through the OMT, which despite the best hopes to the contrary, still DOES NOT OFFICIALLY EXIST) and that while it is up to government to raise growth potentials, growth would "partly come from accommodative policy." In other words, ignore all BIS warnings, for Europe's unaccountable Goldmanite overlord Mario Draghi continues to promise more morphined Koolaid (read record Goldman bonuses) to any banker that comes knocking.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

What Happened The Last 2 Times Mortgage Rates Spiked Like This?





Perhaps - as we are always reminded - it will be different this time but following this morning's surge in Consumer Confidence, we got to thinking, just why is everyone so confident? The facts are, as Citi's FX Technicals group notes, the last times we saw mortgage rates surge like they just have, that marked the peak in consumer confidence and the market followed shortly after. It seems that the Fed, by engineering ever lower rates, can lift confidence; but as is clear from this chart (and as we noted previously) there is a limit to this effect (ZIRP) and each cycle has diminishing returns.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Rumor Ex Machina Sticksaves Futures





It was shaping up to be another bloodbathed session, with the futures down 10 points around the time Shanghai started crashing for the second night in a row, and threatening to take out key SPX support levels, when the previously noted rumor of an imminent PBOC liquidity injection appeared ex machina and sent the Shanghai composite soaring by 5% to barely unchanged, but more importantly for the all important US wealth effect, the Emini moved nearly 20 points higher from the overnight lows triggering momentum ignition algos that had no idea why they are buying only knowing others are buying. The rumor was promptly squashed when the PBOC did indeed take the mic, but contrary to expectations, announced that liquidity was quite "ample" and no new measures were forthcoming. However, by then the upward momentum was all that mattered and the fact that the underlying catalyst was a lie, was promptly forgotten. End result: futures now at the highs for absolutely no reason.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: June 24





  • Stocks Fall With China in Bear Market as Bonds Decline (BBG)
  • Russia defiant as U.S. raises pressure over Snowden (Reuters) ...
  • and sure enough: Kerry Warns Hong Kong and Russia on Snowden  (WSJ)
  • Slow-Motion U.S. Recovery Searches for Second Gear (WSJ)
  • PBOC Sees ‘Reasonable’ Liquidity in China’s Financial System (BBG)
  • Italy's Berlusconi faces verdict in underage sex trial (Reuters)
  • Fed Monetary Course Difficult for a Bernanke Successor to Alter (BBG)
  • Another China central bank worry; companies push into lending (Reuters)
  • Gold Miner Writedowns at $17 Billion After Newcrest Fallout (BBG)
  • Snowden Faces Often-Posed U.S. Fugitive Question: Where to Run? (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

US Traders Walk In To Another Bloodbath





Lots of sellside squeals this morning following the epic bloodbath in China, where in addition to what we already covered hours ago, has seen at least five companies  (China Development Bank, Shanghai ShenTong Metro, China Three Gorges Corp., Doosan Infracore China Co. and Chongqing Shipping Construction Development) delay or cancel bond offerings as the PBOC's admission of capital "misallocation" is slowly but surely freezing both bond and stock markets. And while the plunge was contained first to China, then to Asia, then to Europe (where the Spanish 10 Year once again surpassed 5% as expected following the carry trade unwind), with the arrival of bleary-eyed US traders the contagion is finally coming home. In a redux of last week, 10 Year yields are shooting up, hitting as high as 2.63% a few hours ago, while equity futures are now at the lows of the session. It could turn very ugly, very fast, especially if the Hamptons crowd were to actually read the stunning BIS annual report released on Sunday, which not even Hilsenrath explaining "what the BIS really meant" will do much to change the fact that the days of monetary Koolaid are ending.

 
Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!