Consumer Confidence

Young Americans' Confidence In Economy Surges As Hopes Of "55 And Older" Shatter

Consumer Confidence among Over-55 Americans is at its lowest since September 2014. On the other hand, confidence among the Under-35 generation is its highest in 9 years (as the lowest income earners saw the largest surge in confidence in history - from 44.2. to 73.4). The 'optimism' gap between young and old Americans has never, ever been greater, which is ironic since it is the 55-and-older generation who have record jobs (while those 25-54 have collapsed since the great recession).

Global Stocks Rebound, US Stocks To Reopen Back In The Green For 2015 As Oil Halts Slide

Santa Claus is cutting it close: after stocks closed down yesterday, and just fractionally red for the year, the jolly old gift-giver (who now has activist investors breathing down his neck) has just three trading days to push if not stocks then the market into the green for the year. And so far, so good, with US equity futures rising by 8 points or 0.4%, on the back of some modest renewed Dollar strength but mostly on oil, which after yesterday's big slide, has managed to stem the decline and is up fractionally, just under $37, along with other commodities if not copper, which falls for second day.

"The Mood Is Tipping" - German Economic Pessimism Surges Following Refugee Influx

Sadly, for Germany, this is precisely what is not happening. According to Deutsche Welle, a new survey has revealed that most Germans believe the influx of refugees will not provide an economic boost, in fact quite the opposite: only 16 percent of those surveyed agreed with the statement "the influx of refugees will result in more economic opportunities than problems for us."  The worst news for Merkel is that a majority of Germans - 56 percent - believe the country is not up to the challenge of dealing with the influx. In small towns of less than 5,000 people, this figure rose to 66 percent.

The Real Reason Behind The Santa Rally

Over the past 20 years, there's been an 87% correlation between S&P performance in 4Q and Holiday Sales. As of right now, the S&P in Dec is now on track to be up - a few days ago it wasn't. Furthermore, the S&P is now up +5.5% above its Sep average. If it holds there, the 20-year regression line below suggests that Holiday Sales will be up +5.4%.

Futures Jump After Friday Drubbing, Despite Brent Sliding To Fresh 11 Year Lows, Spanish Political Uncertainty

In a weekend of very little macro newsflow facilitated by the release of the latest Star Wars sequel, the biggest political and economic event was the Spanish general election which confirmed the end of the PP-PSOE political duopoly at national level.  As a result, there was some early underperformance in SPGBs and initial equity weakness across European stocks, which however was promptly offset and at last check the Stoxx 600 was up 0.4% to 363, with US equity futures up nearly 1% after Friday's oversold drubbing. In other key news, the commodity slide continues with Brent Oil dropping to a fresh 11-year low as futures fell as much as 2.2% in London after a 2.8% drop last week.

Sprott Money's picture

Economic Disaster

Now, slave, get back to work, if you have a job, and make sure you save some energy for your other part time employment as you will be going to those jobs later today. 

Presenting Saxo Bank's 10 "Outrageous Predictions" For 2016

"The irony in this year’s batch of outrageous predictions is that some of them are “outrageous” merely because they run counter to overwhelming market consensus. In fact, many would not look particularly outrageous at all in more “normal” times – if there even is such a thing!"

GoldCore's picture

A tragic example of this was seen in Italy in recent days when a pensioner committed suicide after having his life savings wiped out in a bank bail-in. A pensioner from near Rome, hanged himself after his €100,000 (£72,000; $110,000) investment in Banca Etruria bonds were wiped out in a bail-in. A suicide note was left by the pensioner criticising the bank.

Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects

There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

Chinese Auto Sales Crash, Inventories Soar In November

Despite ongoing exuberance at auto sales in America (which disappointed) - as crashing credit standards enable every Tom, Dick, and Muppet to buy too much 'depreciating asset' for their incomes - there are numerous problems few are talking about for automakers worldwide. Aside from "plans to buy a car" tumbling in the latest confidence surveys, and inventories-to-sales surging, China just poured ice cold water on any hope of stability in that 'growth' market as auto dealers issue the highest inventory alert since June. November data from China shows demand plunging, sales collapsing, and inventories soaring - a triple whammy of "no, things are not 'stabilizing'."

AsiaPac Unleashes Baffle 'Em With Bullshit Data Bonanza

From South Korean exports (beat) to Aussie PMI (multi-year highs) and from China Services PMI (2012 lows) to Japan CapEx (multi-year highs), AsiaPac was awash with the exact kind of baffle 'em with bullshit data that provides just enough "see everything is awesome after all" to balance the "umm, but what about..." less glass half full perspective. For your viewing pleasure - 5 WTF charts for AsiaPac economies...

Futures Rebound On Latest Chinese Intervention, Renewed Hopes For "Moar From Mario"

Without a rerun of last Friday's Chinese stock market rout, European traders could focus on what "really matters", namely how much of the ECB's upcoming 20 bps rate cut and €20 billion QE expansion (with Commerzbank saying Draghi may even hint at Europe's QE3) is priced in, and whether the ECB's actions are just modestly priced in, or more than fully, and just how big the "sell the news" event will be.The result: the Euro falls to a new 7 month low, the dollar spot index hits a new all time high, and European stocks and US futures stage another remarkable overnight comeback on the usual low volume levitation and central bank intervention.

Black Friday Total Sales Crash 10% (Despite Rise In Online Spend)

We can hear the mainstream media now - "Great News Everyone!! The American consumer is back" - online sales on Black Friday rose 10% to $1.7 billion which ComScore says shows "strong spending." The only problem is - which we suspect will be oddly missing from the mainstream narrative, as ShopperTrak reports total sales on Black Friday crashed 10% to $10.4 billion. While blame has been placed on early opening on Thanksgiving, that is false too since spending on that day also plunged 10%. So, the sales news is unequivocally bad - which is hardly surprising given the collapse in consumer confidence.