Consumer Confidence

Mario Draghi's "Whatever-er It Takes"-Promising ECB Press Conference - Live Feed

While sovereign and corporate bond markets might suggest 'all is well', the collapse of European consumer confidence indicates "whatever it takes" has failed and while Mario Draghi kept rates unchanged and maintained his global QE buying program, we suspect the need to offer another banal bone of hope for an artificial market running on fumes will overhwhelm any rational thought left in the former Goldman banker's mind.

What To Expect In Today's ECB Announcement: "Time To Send Another Dovish Signal"

Following the previously noted fireworks from Kuroda, who in a BBC interview said that there is "no possibility" of helicopter money (which however the WSJ quickly added was based on an interview conducted in mid-June which supposedly means there is possibility now) In under an hour the market will turn its attention to the ECB's latest statement, where as SocGen's Anatoli Annenkov writes, it is "time to send another dovish signal."

Yen Soars, Stocks Slide After Kuroda Says "No Need Or Possibility For Helicopter Money"

In a surprising rejection of Ben Bernanke, BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda said that there will be no helicopter money in Japan, amid increasing speculation over monetary and fiscal policy in the world’s third-largest economy. Given the current institutional setting, there is "no need and no possibility for helicopter money," Kuroda said in a BBC Radio 4 program that was broadcast Thursday. “At this moment, the Bank of Japan has three options with quantitative and qualitative easing with negative interest rates."

US Futures Rise To Session Highs, Set For Another Record Open; Global Stocks Jump

After yesterday's positive close in the Dow Jones, which hasn't had a losing day since July 7 and which took the series of consecutive green closes to 8 in a row - the longest stretch since 2013 - the index will look to lock in its 9th green day in a row with futures currently trading well in the green. It's not just the US - equities edged higher in Asia and Europe as positive earnings results from some of the world’s biggest companies countered concern the global economy is losing steam. The dollar strengthened while gold retreated.

"Whatever It Takes" Has Failed - European Economic Confidence Crashes To 4-Year Lows

If the premise of central-banking largesse is to maintain (or inspire) economic confidence, then Mario Draghi's smoke and mirrors have officially failed. This morning's ZEW data on German and European Consumer confidence is a disaster. Both the current situation and expectations for Germany tumbled but most worryingly, the 'hope' for European economic growth has crashed to its lowest since Draghi promised to do "whatever it takes" in the summer of 2012.

Global Stock Rally Halted In Aftermath Of Latest French Terror Attack

The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data.

Frontrunning: July 8

  • Snipers kill five Dallas police; Obama calls it 'despicable' attack (Reuters)
  • Global stocks regain ground, Treasury near record low as U.S. jobs data looms (Reuters)
  • House Republicans Push for New Hillary Clinton Investigation (WSJ)
  • Obama urges NATO to stand firm against Russia despite Brexit (Reuters)
  • Kremlin says NATO talk of Russian threat absurd, short-sighted (Reuters)

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

Confidence Crushed Despite Collapsing Jobless Claims

The trend of jobless claims continues lower (despite a modest 10k rise this week to 268k from a revised lower 258k last week). The problem is... as we have shown numerous times, this 'measure' of the labor market appears to have seasinally adjusted itself into being totally-useless as an indicator of anything factual. With Consumer Confidence for over-55s at its lowest in 2 years, it seems the job exuberance is just not rubbing off...

Global Stock Surge Continues As "Investors Look To Central Banks For Support"

Why the ongoing rally? A squeeze, sure, and also month-end fund flows. But the fundamental driver remains one and the same, and we quote Bloomberg: "the relief rally endures as Asian and European stocks rally with crude oil amid speculation policy makers will use stimulus to blunt the impact of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union, including a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. Investors are looking to policy makers for support."