Consumer Confidence

Markets appear to be tentatively recovering some of yesterday’s heavy losses, recording modest gains so far this morning. Comments made overnight by the German finance minister as well as senior officials from the Greek finance ministry may have mercifully given market participants some hope as they are confident the Greek PSI deal will be completed by the deadline tomorrow evening. The DAX index has underperformed the other European equity indices in recent trade following the release of some disappointing factory orders data for January, with markets expecting an expansion of 0.6%, however the reading came in at -2.7%, moving DAX stock futures into negative territory. WTI crude and Brent have also retraced some of their losses made earlier in the week following a drawdown in US gasoline inventories reported last night as well as a generally weak USD index in the FX markets today. Markets are awaiting US ADP employment change later in the session, as well as the weekly DOE oil inventories casting further light on the US energy stocks.

Last Thursday, following the second in one day GDP forecast tweak lower by Goldman on disappointing Consumer and ISM data, we said "And this, ladies and gents, is ultra high frequency economics, where HFT machines push the market up and down without reason, and where this has an immediate impact on economic indicators, all changed around in real time." Sure enough, today, following the better than expected Services ISM print, Goldman has now revised its GDP tracking number, this time higher, from 1.9% to 2.0%! At this rate GDP will soon become a coincident indicator of nothing more than consumer confidence that record high gas prices are a bullish indicator for consumption. That it is already a coincident indicator to real-time economic data, and merely shows the prevalent confusion within the strategist community, is a given.

When it comes to reporting the news, Reuters ability to get the scoop first may only be rivaled by its ability to "spin" analysis in a way that will make a normal thinking person's head spin.  Such as the following piece of unrivaled headscrathing titled "The good news behind oil prices" whose conclusion, as some may have already guessed, is that "the surge in crude oil is looking more like a harbinger of better days." Let's go through the arguments.

Yesterday, when we reported about Goldman not one, but two GDP Q1 forecast cuts in one day, we said to "watch for the Wall Street lemming brigade to quickly follow in Goldman's footsteps." Sure enough, here is Bank of America, rushing first into the bandwagon, trimming its Q1 forecast from 2.2% to 1.8%. This is perfectly expected: recall that from day 1 of 2012, most banks had been pushing for QE3, ignorant of the massive liquidity tsunami that was going on behind the scenes. Well, the impact of that has now come and gone, with no more easing from the ECB on the horizon for a long time. Which means that the focus can again shift to how "bad" the US economy is in preparation for the inevitable Bernanke gambit. Needless to say this will make the pre-election economy appear like a total farce in the months before the re-election: soaring employment and plunging everything else. Good luck explaining that away. Incidentally explains why the EURUSD has resumed its slide: the market is now pushing Bernanke to halt the appreciation of the USD against the EUR, and thus the implicit benefit of German's economy over that of the US, which can only happen with further promises of easing. That said, we can't wait for the statement as the vaudeville Trio of Bianco, Chadha and of course LaVorgna to follow suit and slash their now comically hyperbolic expectations.

• Brazil declares new ‘currency war’ (FT)
• Postal Cuts Are Dead Letter in Congress (WSJ)
• China state banks to boost selected property loans (Reuters)
• ECB Says Overnight Deposits Surge to Record (Bloomberg)
• Van Rompuy confirmed for 2nd term as EU Council president (Reuters) - you mean dictator
• BOJ Shirakawa: Japan consumer prices to gradually rise (Reuters)
• IMF Says Threat of Sharp Global Slowdown Eased (Reuters)
• Eurozone delays half of Greece’s funds (FT)
• BOJ Openings Can Shape Monetary Policy (Bloomberg)

Earlier we noted how Goldman cut their tracking forecast for Q1 GDP from 2.3% to 2.0% on weaker consumer spending data (which somehow resulted in a surge in consumer confidence: oh well, the US branch of the Chinese Department of Truth has to justify its budget somehow). Not even a full two hours later, the firm has just whacked its forecast for Q1 GDP again, this time on the major ISM miss. And this, ladies and gents, is ultra high frequency economics, where HFT machines push the market up and down without reason, and where this has an immediate impact on economic indicators, all changed around in real time.

There are those who recall that not ten days ago, according to the IMF's Greek (un)sustainability analysis, worst case scenario no less, Greek GDP would somehow miraculously post just a 1% drop in 2013. Unfortunately this won't happen. According to the overnight PMI update out of Europe (where was saw the jobless rate at the highest since 1997), the Greek economy just imploded at a record pace. This follows the already horrendous budget revenue data from January which came in down 7% on expectations of a 9% rise. Sure enough, as expected the fact that the entire country has taken the rest of 2012 off with no incentive to actually work, will do miracles for Greece. From Reuters: "The Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Greece fell to a survey low of 37.7 points in February from 41.0 in January, staying below the 50 mark that divides growth in activity from contraction for each of the past 30 months. Production and new order volumes fell at the sharpest pace in the near 13 year history of the survey as austerity sapped demand. New export orders fell for a sixth straight month and at the steepest rate since May 2010." Translated: the situation is hopeless and getting worse. Expect the German, pardon Troika, Kommissar to be shocked, shocked, to find out that not only do banks in Greece have no deposits left, but the entire economy picked up and left.

Earlier today, when forecasting the Chicago PMI, we warned to "expect another massive beat courtesy of consumers confident that they can have Apple apps, if not so much food, since they still don't pay their mortgages." Sure enough, the economic data is now straight out of China, with the Chicago PMI not only trouncing expectations, printing at 64, on consensus of 61 (the highest since last April when the peak of the liquidity bubble popped and the stock market rolled over), but, wait for it, the Employment index came at 64.2, up from 54.7, which was the highest employment print since April 1984! At this point it is no longer worth commenting on economic data, as between this, the NAR, the consumer confidence, it was all become farce of a blur. we now expect February unemployment to print negative as the labor participation rate slides to 50%, and seasonal adjustments and birth/date fixtures account for 5 million "additions" to jobs. One thing that is sure. There will be no more easing for a looooooooong time. Kiss any hope of more trillions in central bank liquidity goodbye.

Silver as ever outperformed gold yesterday and traders attributed the surge to “massive fund buying” and to “panic” short covering. Some of the bullion banks with large concentrated short positions covered short positions after the technical level of $35.50/oz was breached easily. Massive liquidity injections and ultra loose monetary policies make silver increasingly attractive for hedge funds, institutions and investors. This time last year (February 28th 2011) silver was at $36.67/oz. Two months later on April 28th it had risen to $48.44/oz for a gain of 32% in 2 months. There then came a very sharp correction and a period of consolidation in recent months. Silver’s fundamentals remain as bullish as ever and the technicals look increasingly bullish with strong gains seen in January and February.

• Euro-Area Banks Tap ECB for Record Amount of Three-Year Cash (Bloomberg)
• Papademos Gets Backing for $4.3B of Cuts (Bloomberg)
• China February Bank Lending Remains Weak (Reuters)
• Romney Regains Momentum (WSJ)
• Shanghai Raises Minimum Wage 13% as China Seeks to Boost Demand (Bloomberg)
• Fiscal Stability Key To Economic Competitiveness - SNB's Jordan (WSJ)
• Bank's Tucker Says Cannot Relax Bank Requirements (Reuters)
• Life as a Landlord (NYT)

There no longer are any words left to explain what is going on in this centrally planned market (technically "enantiomeric" may be a word, but nobody would get it). It is sheer and utter bipolar insanity, when the S&P can hit multi-year highs even as the 10 year drops below 1.90%, something which in the pre-New Normal would be completely impossible. We wish luck to anyone "trading" a market (read trading alongside Central Bank X, with momentum escalated courtesy of Algo Y, regulated by the SEC no less) which is now pricing in extreme deflation and inflation at the same time, or, simply said, much more QE from the Chairman, record EUR Brent be damned. Oh, and with crude (in USD) back on track to surpass $110, we can't wait for the Department of Truth to tell us how February consumer confidence is literally off the charts.

The economic data keeps coming fast and furious, with Consumer Confidence just printing at a blistering 70.3 on expectations of 63.0, up from 61.5? Why? Because crude is approaching records and gas is $5? No - because the market is up of course on trillions in liquidity. So confidence is up because the market is higher, and the second the higher than expected confidence number prints, the market is higher on that alone. Catch 22 FTW, and it is not alone - every other confidence-based indicator in the past 3 months has beat! Because human beings, indoctrinated to only care about nominal gains, really are that dumb - something well known and appreciated by the central bankers. In other news, we joked before it printed that the Richmond Fed would come several standard deviations above the consensus. Sure enough, the actual print came at 20, naturally far higher than the average estimate of 14, and in fact above the highest estimate of 17. The good news: silver has just hit a 30% YTD return.

Little that can be added here. The December Case Shiller came, saw, and shut up all those who keep calling for a home price recovery. The Index printed at 136.71 on expectations of 137.11, with the prior revised to 138.24. The top 20 City composite was down -0.5% on expectations of a 0.35% drop. 18 out of 20 MSAs saw monthly declines in December over November, with just the worst of the worst - Miami and Phoenix - posting a dead cat bounce, rising 0.2% and 0.8% respectively. And granted the data is delayed, but the fact that we have now had 8 consecutive months of home price declines even with mortgage rates persistently at record lows, and the double dip in housing more than obvious, can we finally shut up about a housing bottom? Because as Case Shiller's David Blitzer says: "If anything it looks like we might have reentered a period of decline as we begin 2012.” QED

So far there are no dramatic consequences of the Greek default.  The ECB did say they couldn’t accept it as collateral, but national central banks (including Greece’s somehow solvent NCB) can, so no real change.  We will likely get a Credit Event prior to March 20th once CAC’s are used to get the deal fully done.  Will the market respond much to that?  Probably not, though there is a higher risk of unforeseen consequences from that, than there was from the S&P downgrade. It just strikes us that Europe wasted a year or more, and has created a less stable system than it had before. Tomorrow’s LTRO is definitely interesting.  It seems like every outcome is now bullish – big take up is bullish because of the “carry” trade.  Low take up is bullish because “banks are okay”. Any weak bank looking to borrow from the LTRO to buy sovereign debt would be insane to buy bonds longer than 3 years and take the roll risk, but on the other hand, the weakest and most insolvent, got there by doing insane things in the first place.

Stocks advanced as market participants looked forward to tomorrow’s 3yr LTRO by the ECB where the street expects EU banks to borrow around EUR 400-500bln. All ten sectors traded in positive territory for much of the session, however less than impressive demand for the latest Italian government paper saw equity indices lose some of the upside traction. Of note, the ECB allotted EUR 29.469bln in 7-day operation, as well as EUR 134bln for 1-day in bridge to 3yr loans. In other new, although Portugal's finance minister announced the country has passed its 3rd bailout review by the EU/IMF, this did not stop S&P's Kraemer saying that if there is a probability of default, it is higher in Portugal than in any other Euro-Zone country.