Consumer Confidence

JPM Looks At Draghi's "Package," Calls It "Solid," But Underwhelming

"On the negative side, the forward inflation targets were downgraded substantially, ECB didn’t address the issue of capacity constraints, and the shift in focus away from facilitating further currency depreciation will, in our view, end up being a negative for region’s equity market. Overall, we believe the latest package is far from a game changer."

Life And Times During The Great Depression

I thought the Depression was going to go on forever. For six or seven years, it didn’t look as though things were getting better. The people in Washington DC said they were, but ask the man on the road? He was hungry and his clothes were ragged and he didn’t have a job. He didn’t think things were picking up.”

Most "Priced In" Policy Since 2011 - Why Draghi Better Not Disappoint

Mario Draghi better put up or shut up at the next ECB meeting as the market is more-than-pricing-in a very significant deposit rate cut (deeper into NIRP). In fact, at -56bps, 2Y German bond yields are the most "priced in" since 2011 (and bear in mind he disappointed in December).

Global Stocks, Oil Continue Streamrolling Shorts On Last Minute Hopes For G-20 Stimulus Announcement

With the conclusion of this weekend's G-20 unknown, and many still expecting a major stimulus, the squeeze will likely continue into the close of trading ahead of the  weekend when nobody will want to be caught short into what may end up being another global coordinated intervention to prop up markets. “With a lot of policy events coming there is a fair chance of more stimulus plans so the markets can squeeze higher,” said Benno Galliker, a trader at Luzerner Kantonalbank AG. "The big reversal shows that there is some expectation building up into those events."

An Escalating War On Cash Threatens The Stability & Tranquility Of Developed Societies

The size and scope of the political, economic and financial problems that now challenge the relative stability and tranquility of developed societies are unprecedented. Negative interest rates combined with the eradication of cash appear as a desperate attempt to control global private wealth. Should the war on cash prove unsuccessful in its early stages, banks could be closed for long periods.

Now It's China's Turn To Crash: Shanghai Plunges 6.4% Overnight

In recent weeks Chinese stocks remained relatively resilient, levitating quietly day after day. That all changed overnight when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.4% with the drop accelerating into the close. This was the biggest drop in over a month and was big enough to almost wipe out the entire 10% rebound from the January lows in one session.

The Selling Is Back: S&P Futures Tumble Below 1,900; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars

On Monday, everyone was giddy that the rally is back on. Less than two days later, the dour fatalism of some HFT algo stop hunting price action and a few comments by the Saudi oil minister, and the markets have remember than nothing has changed and that nothing has been fixed. But at least the biggest shorts squeeze in 5 years is finally over.

Collapse In 'Hope' Sends Americans' Consumer Confidence Tumbling Near 1-Year Lows

Driven by a collapse in 'hope' - future expectations dropped to 78.9, the lowest since Feb 2014 - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence headline dropped from 97.8 to 92.2, the weakest since July 2015. Amid the so-called best jobs market in decades, near-record low gas prices, and a resurging stock market, it appears the 'everyday American' is not amused as all the 'increases in animal spirits' since QE3 have evaporated.

Frontrunning: February 23

  • Risk rally fades as stocks, oil slip back into the red (Reuters)
  • Syrian govt. accepts halt to 'combat operations' in line with U.S.-Russian plan (Reuters)
  • Earliest Chinese Data Signal Slowdown Hasn't Bottomed Out Yet (BBG)
  • The Trickle of U.S. Oil Exports Is Already Shifting Global Power (BBG)
  • Greek police remove migrants from Macedonian border as more land in Piraeus (Reuters)
  • Clinton, Sanders race takes on angrier tone after Nevada (Reuters)

Is The Short Squeeze Over? Global Rally Fizzles, Futures Lower

The biggest question on all traders' minds will be whether the bear market short squeeze that sent the S&P higher by 130 points in 6 days, is finally over - with most global market rolling over and with US equity futures unable to find their  solid early morning footing, it may finally be time to cash out of the bear market rally which so many predicted, and which GSBank yesterday may have top-ticked with perfection.

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

The OPEX game is back in full swing and brought back hope amongst signs of bullish capitulation everywhere.... but there is plenty of bad (and even ugly) to consider.