• Tim Knight from...
    10/06/2015 - 17:03
    As we head into another earnings season, the bulls better pray to whatever pagan gods they worship that company after company magically defy the downturn that the economy is quite obviously entering.

Consumer Credit

Tyler Durden's picture

Why Don't You Explain this To Me Like I'm 5...

What the pundits attempt to do is have you focus on the forest from an inch away. While the endless optimism of the talking-heads, most recently that the selloff in developed equity markets has gone too far, each offering up various 'narrative' reasons to support their claim; simply put, they are full of tragic flaws. Allow us to color-code this for all those market "pros" and PhD "economists" who haven't been able to follow the premise over the past several months...

Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: September 9

  • Global stocks rally as investors scent fresh stimulus (Reuters)
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 Rises 7.7% for Biggest Gain Since October 2008 (BBG)
  • China's Stocks Advance for Second Day Amid Stimulus Speculation (BBG)
  • Abe Pledges Corporate Tax Cut as Investments Slump (BBG)
  • U.S. to shift 50 staff to boost office handling Clinton emails (Reuters)
  • Chinese Premier Li Keqiang Says China Doesn't Want a Currency War (BBG)
  • One Thing China Got Right (BBG)
Tyler Durden's picture

Futures Soar After Dramatic Chinese Last Hour Intervention Scrambles To Mask Latest Terrible Trade Data

The last time we looked at Chinese stocks, just a few hours ago, they were on pace to close back under 3000, following the latest collapse in trade, where in August exports dropped 5.5% (last -8.3%) while imports tumbled -13.8% in dollar terms (worse than the -8.1% prior). As the Reuters chart below shows, this was the 10th month in a row of declines and the worst stretch since the 2008 crisis, confirming China will need far more currency devaluation to stabilize the trade pain. And then Chinese authorities intervened with gusto, waiting until the start of the afternoon session, at which point a massive buying orgy ensued, and pushed the SHCOMP from down more than 2% to close at the day highs, up some 2.9%!

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Surge Then Tumble At The Close, Stun Market News Algos; Futures Levitate On Back Of USDJPY

Chinese stocks opened with a bang, and as we previously noted soared higher at the open after China's long 4-day holiday weekend, which however subsequently slowly (but very surely) fizzled, eating away at the hope that the 3-day drop in the Shanghai Composite would finally come to an end following comments from PBOC governor Zhou that the recent rout in Chinese stocks is almost over, and result in a relief rally in Europe and the US. Alas, all that was promptly swept away at the end of trading in China when the Shanghai Composite tumbled at close of trading to confirm just how unpleasant a "death cross" is coupled with loss of central bank control, and to push the Shanghai Composite down 2.5% for the day and 3.4% for the year.

Tyler Durden's picture

Key Economic Events Of The Coming Busy Week: ISM, ADP, Trade, Producttivity And Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

It's a busy week for the market, and not to mention the Dow Jones-dependent Fed, which will have to parse through reports on Chicago PMI, Construction Spending, ISM (Mfg and Services), ADP, Productivity and Labor Costs, Factory Orders, Trade Balance, and the weekly highlight: Friday's Jobs reports.

Tyler Durden's picture

FOMC Minutes Leaked Early After Embargo Broken, Fed Warns Risk To GDP Forecast "Tilted To The Downside"

Seconds ago, someone accidentally (we hope) pulled a Janet Yellen as the following just came across the wires


But the bottom line is that the Fed just admitted things are going from bad to worse: "The risks to the forecast for real GDP and inflation were seen as tilted to the downside." The question now is what comes first: QE4 or the first rate hike in nearly a decade.

Tyler Durden's picture

With All Eyes On Payrolls US Futures Tread Water; China Rises As Copper Crashes To New 6 Year Low

Here comes today's main event, the July non-farm payrolls - once again the "most important ever" as the number will cement whether the Fed hikes this year or punts once again to the next year, and which consensus expects to print +225K although the whisper range is very wide: based on this week's ADP report, NFP may easily slide under 200K, while if using the non-mfg PMI as an indicator, a 300K+ print is in the cards. At the end of the day, it will be all in the hands of the BLS' Arima X 12 seasonal adjusters, and whatever goalseeked print the labor department has been strongly urged is the right one.

Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Tumble In Close Of Trading "Causing Panic", US GDP To Be Revised Higher On Seasonal Adjustments

We start off the overnight wrap up with the usual place, China, where in a mirror image of Wednesday's action, stocks once again started off uneventful, then gradually rose in the afternoon session and meandered near unchanged territory until the last half hour, when out of the blue they tumbled to close near the day's low, some 2.2% below yesterday's closing level.  What caused it?  One possible catalyst came from Reuters which reported that that Chinese banks were investigating their exposure to the stock market via wealth management products and loans backed by stock as collateral. 

Tyler Durden's picture

Violent Government Buying Spree Sends Chinese Stocks Soaring At Close Of Trading; Yellen On Deck

On a day when market participants will care about only one thing - how hawkish (or dovish) the FOMC sounds at 2:00 pm (no Yellen press conference today) - Chinese stocks provided the usual dramatic sideshow and traded unchanged or modestly negative for most of the day despite the latest $100 billion injection, the close of trading on Wednesday was a mirror image of what happened in the last hour on Monday, as various Chinese "plunge-protection" mechanism went into a furious buying frenzy and government-backed funds rushed to buy anything that trades in the last 60 minutes of trading in what may be the most glaring example of banging the close yet.

Tyler Durden's picture

Key Events In The Coming Week

Last week was a complete dead zone for US macro, however with the peak of Q2 earnings season there was more than enough commotion for everyone. This week US macro starts to pick up again, with Durable Goods on Monday, followed by Case Shiller, Q2 GDP, the Chicago PMI, various consumer confidence indices, and of course, the July FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks, US Equity Futures Slide Following China Crash

It all started in China, where as we noted previously, the Shanghai Composite plunged by 8.5% in closing hour, suffering its biggest one day drop since February 2007 and the second biggest in history. The Hang Seng, while spared the worst of the drubbing, was also down 3.1%. There were numerous theories about the risk off catalyst, including fears the PPT was gradually being withdrawn, a decline in industrial profits, as well as an influx in IPOs which drained liquidity from the market. At the same time, Nikkei 225 (-0.95%) and ASX 200 (-0.16%) traded in negative territory underpinned by softness in commodity prices.

Syndicate content
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!