Consumer Credit

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

88% Probability We Just Entered Recession

Corporate microeconomic policies of capital misallocation (implemented in an attempt to appease investors) are negating all of the intended benefits of Fed policy.  This means we are fully reliant then on fiscal policy which, as we already discussed, is off the table for as far as the eye can see. And so even if we accept that all existing economic policy frameworks (fiscal, monetary, microeconomic) really do have the very best of intentions we are still effectively dead in the water.

Time To Get Real, Part 2: "We Need Their Drugs"

On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"

GoldCore's picture

As some of you may know, in a previous life I wrote a lot about gold and silver. I took the perspective of someone who was new and curious to the precious metals. I wanted to know more than just how the Fed announcements affected the prices, why demand and supply weren’t enough to predict movements and why history didn’t seem to have taught us any lessons.

Consumer Credit Jumps By $18 Billion In July; Student, Auto Loans Hit $2.4 Trillion

While the credit spigot appears to be fully functional once again, it does not explain the disappointing car sales numbers in recent months, which prompted Ford earlier this week to warn that US car sales have now hit a "pleateau." If so, one wonders just what these car loans, which total $1.1 trillion, are being spent on. As for the student loans, which now amount to $1.4 trillion, the endgame there is mostly clear.

With All Eyes On The ECB, Catatonic Global Markets Remain In State Of Near Paralysis

As the market's comatose trading range continues with no notable moves for nearly 40 consecutive days, there is some hope volatility may return after today's main event, the ECB's announcement due in just two hours, when Mario Draghi may surprise the market in either direction. As of today, the S&P500 has held in a band of 1.5% for 39 days, the narrowest ever for that length of time.

Fed's Beige Book Repeats "Modest Economic Growth", No Rate Hike Odds Reaction

The Fed's most boring report, the Beige Book, once again offered its ubiquitous "modest" to "moderate" growth outlook with little insight into whether the Fed is considering any rate hike in the immediate future. On the topic of wages, the Fed said that "Upward wage pressures increased further and were moderate on balance, with more rapid gains reported for workers with selected specialized skill sets. Price increases remained slight overall"

With US On Holiday, Global Stocks Rise As Dollar Sinks, While Fireworks Break Out In Crude

With the US taking the day off to celebrate the unofficial end of the summer, global markets have been relatively quiet, aside from the dramatic moves in the energy sector over the past few hours, where crude soared in early trading as reported previously on a much-hyped joint statement by the energy ministers of Saudi Arabia and Russia, only to see the spike fizzle.

Futures Flat, Global Stocks Higher As Dollar Resumes Rise

The quiet overnight market had been focused on the upcoming comments by Stanley Fischer, who is set to give a Bloomberg TV interview at 6:30am ET, where he was expected to expand on his recent hawkish comments. Heading into Fischer's appearance, the dollar strengthened, global stocks rose, oil hovered around $47, while US index futures were largely flat and Treasuries fell.

The US Real Estate Big Picture... A Thesis In Moral Hazard

Given central banks are all in and have no credible ideas (or credibility period), a NIRP driven speculative new housing bubble (for a population that is barely growing...hello China?) seems most likely.  If you haven't already, get busy front running the next moral hazard moonshot and then stay tuned.  Because as you read this, central bankers are already devising their next (even more destructive) "plan".