Consumer Credit

Deutsche Bank Warns "The Plate-Spinning Era" Is Over

"2016 has been a landmark year as we seem to have reached a point where the faster the plates are spun the more the unintended short-term consequences... the global financial system remains broken and extremely fragile. Secular stagnation trends are everywhere. The world has too big a debt burden for the current growth environment.."

3 Things: Retail Sales, Recurring Ignorance, & Return Reality

There was an awful lot of cheering about the recent retail sales report which showed an uptick of 0.8% which beat the analyst’s estimates of 0.6%. However, if we dig deeper behind the headlines more troubling trends emerge for the consumer which begins to erode the narrative of the "economy is doing great" and “there is no recession" in sight.

The Day Arrives: Global Stocks Higher, US Futures Lower As America Begins Voting

The day has finally arrived and as of minutes ago voters in eastern states have begun voting for the next US president. Polls are open in eight states, including battlegrounds Virginia and New Hampshire, as well as in New York, where Clinton votes at a public school in Chappaqua, Trump at a public school in Manhattan.

Key Events In The Coming Presidential Election Week

The US election this Tuesday is the main focus of the week. The key economic release this week is University of Michigan consumer sentiment on Friday. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week. 

Preview Of Key Events In The Coming Week

Politics will continue to be in focus as US elections draw closer, with attention on post-debate polling numbers high. However, this week should see a pivot toward data with markets looking for evidence of the summer wobble in activity data reversing. In the US the main focus will be the NFP and ISM reports.

Futures Flat With Germany Closed; Sterling Slides On "Hard Brexit" Fears

With China, German and South Korea closed for holiday, it has been a relatively quiet day in overnight equity trading, especially in the one stock everyone is keeping a close eye on, Deutsche Bank, whose ADRs are trading fractionally lower, down under 1% in premarket trading. Cable plunged on "Hard Brexit" fears sending the FTSE100 to fresh 16 month highs.

88% Probability We Just Entered Recession

Corporate microeconomic policies of capital misallocation (implemented in an attempt to appease investors) are negating all of the intended benefits of Fed policy.  This means we are fully reliant then on fiscal policy which, as we already discussed, is off the table for as far as the eye can see. And so even if we accept that all existing economic policy frameworks (fiscal, monetary, microeconomic) really do have the very best of intentions we are still effectively dead in the water.

Time To Get Real, Part 2: "We Need Their Drugs"

On the current path, the world is experiencing the largest artificial asset allocation in modern history, one that is driven by a misguided interest rate regime that has lost its efficacy and is producing more harm than good. Yet the fear of withdrawal pain is keeping central bankers from doing the inevitable: Quit. The response is predictable: "I need the drugs!"

GoldCore's picture

As some of you may know, in a previous life I wrote a lot about gold and silver. I took the perspective of someone who was new and curious to the precious metals. I wanted to know more than just how the Fed announcements affected the prices, why demand and supply weren’t enough to predict movements and why history didn’t seem to have taught us any lessons.