Consumer Prices

Like Everything Else, History Repeats (Almost Exactly) Because Power Truly Corrupts

The FOMC has no idea what it is doing, just like Bank of Japan officials about a decade before them. Rather than learn from all the experimentation, the power and prestige still, somehow, afforded to all of them is just too much to give up. They would clearly rather keep themselves on top of the political power structure as it relates to the economy than to admit what is increasingly obvious (a second time).

"Disappointing And Underwhelming" - An Unhappy Wall Street Reacts To The BOJ's Latest Announcement

Just after midnight east coast time, the BOJ presented its new and improved monetary policy dubbed “QQE with Yield Curve Control,” in which the central bank said it would buy JGBs such that 10-year yield remain at the current level of around zero percent. The BOJ will also buy JGBs at designated yields, and generally steepen the curve even as it failed to lower rates or add more QE. Wall Street took one look at what the BOJ came up with... and hated it immediately.

BOJ Needs To Go All The Way

The BOJ does have a track record of surprising markets. If it doesn’t want to see USD/JPY collapse, exacerbating the nation’s economic struggles, then it needs to ensure the shock is a dovish one this time. Which maybe what the banks are negatively expecting...Even as Goldman warns "don't expect much if anything, at all."

Fun With Fake Statistics: The 5% "Increase" In Median Household Income Is Pure Illusion

The truth is the rich are getting richer and everyone else is losing ground as inflation chews through stagnant incomes and rising debt loads stripmine disposable income. Bought and paid for cheerleaders for our failed, corrupt status quo will always hype bogus, purposefully misleading statistics - but don't mistake fakery for fact.

Global Market Rout Abates As Bond Selloff Pauses, Oil Rebounds

After a sudden rout in financial markets that wiped $2 trillion in global market cap over the past week showed signs of easing, overnight stocks tried to stage another "BTFD-type" comeback with European stocks climbing for the first time in five days as oil and metals prices gained. S&P futures were modestly in green, although they faded earlier gains, on the back of a slide in the USDJPY which initially spiked to 103.31 only to fade back to the mid 102-range.

Key Events In The Coming "Fed Blackout" Week

The spotlight turns to US data and Fed speakers ahead of the Fed blackout period this week. The BoE and SNB meet to decide policy but consensus expect no change from either. Elsewhere we get inflation data from the US, UK, Sweden & EZ (F), Q2 GDP from NZ & SW and labor market data from the UK & AU.

When They Say "Hoarding" Instead Of "Saving" You Know You're In Trouble

Our entire central bank controlled financial system is based on the premise that unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats should be able to direct individuals’ consumption and production behavior from ivory tower conclaves. And they have abused their authority to the point that two entire asset classes are now poisonous.

"Last September Yellen Decided To Stay On Hold; Three Years Ago Bernanke Chose Not To Taper QE3"

Will she, or won't she? That is the question everyone wants answered regarding whether Yellen will hike rates in two weeks time. To be sure, historical precedented is not on the side of the hawks: as Bloomberg's Daniel Kruger reminds us, "Last September in ambiguous circumstances Yellen opted to stay on hold. Three years ago in September Ben Bernanke chose not to taper QE3 bond purchases."

Frontrunning: September 1

  • Global shares snap losing streak as oil ends its decline (Reuters)
  • Trump returns to hardline position on illegal immigration (Reuters)
  • U.S., others agreed to 'secret' exemptions for Iran after nuclear deal (Reuters)
  • China’s Factory Gauge Unexpectedly Rises to Highest Since 2014 (BBG)
  • Weak Pound Drives U.K. Factories Back From Brexit Shock (BBG)
  • Elon Musk Faces Cash Squeeze at Tesla, SolarCity (WSJ)

"I Am Frustrated And Down" - Abe Advisor Admits That Abenomics May Fail

One day after Koichi Hamada, one of Shinzo Abe's inner circle of economic advisors, suggested that the BOJ should monetize foreign bonds, admitted that "I’ve studied economics for more than 50 years and I’ve believed that what works in the world mostly works in Japan as well," Hamada said at a seminar in Tokyo, later admitting that "in the past six months, I’m starting to see there is potential that Abenomics may not work well."

"Massive Shock" Looms In Japan As Kuroda Is In "Jeopardy", According To $2 Trillion Investor

The Bank of Japan could announce a "massive stimulus program" as soon as September, according to the CIO of UBS Wealth Management which allocates $2 trillion in assets. "It is how much they do, and whether they can create that kind of shock and awe at this point in the cycle... They could announce a massive stimulus program both on the monetary and fiscal side. Right now, it looks like they are going to use more stimulus."