• Marc To Market
    10/03/2015 - 09:57
    The poor jobs report weighed on the dollar, but the greenback recovered as the session progressed.  It is not clear the jobs report was a game changer.  Stay tuned.  

Consumer Prices

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ECB Will Boost QE By 120% To €2.4 Trillion, S&P Predicts

When a lot of Keynesian cowbell doesn't work, the only cure for the deflationary fever must be more Keynesian cowbell which explains why Japan is about to double down on Abenomics, and why the ECB will almost invariably expand PSPP now that the deflationary boogeyman is back in Europe. Indeed, S&P is now out calling for ECB Q€ to last for nearly two years longer than originally planned and for the size of the program to be expanded to a Dr. Evil-ish €2,400,000,000,000.

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Stocks, Futures Soar As Europe Joins Japan In Deflation, Surge Driven By Hopes For More Japan, ECB QE

Terrible economic news is wonderful news for markets, all over again, and with the worst S&P500 quarter since 2011 set to close today, some horribly "great" news is just what the window-dressing hedge funds, most of whom are deeply underperforming the broader market (not to mention Dennis Gartman) ordered.

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Yellen "Do-Over" Speech - Live Feed

When risk sold off last week in the wake of the Fed’s so-called “clean relent,” it signalled at best a policy mistake and at worst the loss of any and all credibility. Tonight, Yellen gets a do-over.

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Fed Enters Rate Hike Meeting With First Headline Deflation Since January

As the final inflation data before the FOMC decision, some have argued that this print matters most as an excuse to stay in 'emergency mode' - perhaps they are right. Consumer Prices dropped 0.1% (as expected) in August - this is the first 'deflation' since January - great news for consumers. Gasoline and airline tickets saw the biggest drops dragging down YoY CPI but The Fed will shrug its "transitory" shoulders but ex-food-and-energy did miss expectations, rising 1.8% YoY (against 1.9% exp). Notably food prices rose 0.2% in August, driven by a surge in egg prices. So WWJYD?

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Frontrunning: September 16

  • Contrarian CEOs tell the Fed: Go ahead, raise my rates (Reuters)
  • Goldman Warns Markets Unprepared for Fed as Treasuries Seesaw (BBG)
  • Investors Look Beyond Fed Meeting, See Low Rates (WSJ)
  • Volatility seen lingering no matter what the Fed does (Reuters)
  • What Rising Interest Rates Would Mean for You (BBG)
  • China Stocks Jump in Last Hour of Trading on State Support Signs (BBG)
  • No Escape for China Hedge Funds Overwhelmed by Stocks Crash (BBG)
  • Hedge Fund Bridgewater Defends Its ‘Risk-Parity’ Strategy (WSJ)
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China Plunge Protectors Unleash Berserk Buying Spree In Last Hour Of Trading As Fed Meeting Begins

Ffor whatever reason starting in the last hour of trading and continuing until the close, the Shanghai Composite - after trading largely unchanged - went from red on the day to up 4.9% after hitting 5.9% minutes before the close - the biggest one day surge since March 2009 - and nearly erasing the 6.1% drop from the past two days in just about 60 minutes of trading, providing a solid hour of laughter to bystanders and observers in the process.

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Austrian Central Bank Warns Fed, "Rate Hikes Will Slow Global Growth"

Market participants, be they lenders or borrowers, know that “easy money” has an expiry date. If The FOMC raises rates, "we foresee negative effects on world GDP in the medium term, not only for emerging markets but also for industrialized economies." In other words, though emerging markets – through their dependence on capital inflows – will be at risk when America’s monetary policy eventually returns to “normal,” the same will be true for advanced economies.

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Futures Surge Overnight As Deteriorating Economic Data Unleashes Blur Of Central Bank Interventions And QE Rumors

It has become virtually impossible to differentiate between actual central bank intervention, hopes of central bank intervention, and how the two interplay on what was once the "market" but is now merely the place where money printers duke it out every day in some pretense of price discovery set by those who literally print money.

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More "Seller Strikes"? ECB Monetizes Fewest Bonds In August Since Start Of Q€

What is the reason for the drop? Well, one can believe the ECB's stated explanation which is that due to European summer vacations, activity in Europe has ground to a halt. Of course, this would suggest that monetization in the Eurozone is continent on managers' summer vacation plans, which is probably an even more troubling explanation of ECB activity bottlenecks than what may be really going on in Europe. The alternative? As we noted over the weekend when we reported that now even the IMF is discussing the upcoming limits to BOJ QE as a result of sellers running out of BOJs to hand over to the BOJ, the same may be taking place in Europe

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Peter Schiff Warns: Meet QT - QE's Evil Twin

The arrival of Quantitative Tightening will provide years' worth of monetary headwinds. Of course the only tool that the Fed will be able to use to combat international QT will be a fresh dose of domestic QE. That means the Fed will not only have to shelve its plan to allow its balance sheet to run down (a plan I never thought remotely feasible from the moment it was announced), but to launch QE4, and watch its balance sheet swell towards $10 trillion. Of course, these monetary crosscurrents should finally be enough to capsize the U.S. dollar.
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Why China Liquidations May Not Spike US Treasury Yields

There is no doubt that the Chinese economy is in a material economic slowdown. Policy officials’ aggressive actions and scare tactics against equity short sellers could continue to cause capital flight. However, this does not mean that China is going to sell large quantities of Treasuries. There is too much co-dependency between the US consumer and Chinese exporter. Destabilizing the US Treasury market with large sales would be tantamount to shooting themselves in the foot.

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Is It Over Yet?

The REAL RISK currently is not missing some of the upside if the bull market does begin to resume, but rather catching the downside if this correction turns into a full-fledged bear.

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Guest Post: Stanley Fischer Speaks - More Drivel From A Dangerous Academic Fool

With every passing week that money markets rates remain pinned to the zero bound by the Fed, the magnitude of the financial catastrophe hurtling toward main street America intensifies. When the next financial bubble crashes it can only be hoped that this time the people will grab their torches and pitchforks. Stanley Fischer ought to be among the first tarred and feathered for the calamity that he has so arrogantly helped enable.

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