Consumer Prices

Holiday Market Summary

With all of Europe and the U.S. closed for holiday, what little market action there was overnight came out of Asia, where China once again was engaged in its last hour "National Team" market manipulation, which saved the SHCOMP from a red close after the now traditional last hour buying spree pushed the Shanghai Composite from red on the session an hour before close to near the highs of the day.

Fed Mouthpiece Parses Timid Janet's Latest Pronouncement

"Federal Reserve officials reduced estimates of how much they expect to raise short-term interest rates in 2016 and beyond, nodding to lingering risks to the economic outlook posed by soft global economic growth and financial-market volatility."

China Food Inflation Explodes To 4 Year Highs As Producer Prices Slump For 47th Straight Month

For the 47th month in a row, China's Producer Prices have fallen year-over-year - a record deflationary streak. CPI rose 2.3% YoY - the fastest pace since May 2014 (against expectations of a 1.8% rise in consumer prices, and at the upper end of the +1.5% to +2.4% range). PPI printed as expected with a  4.9% YoY plunge in producer prices (-4.5% to -5.5% range). However, what is most disturbing - from both a social unrest and economic-stimulus-hope basis, is that Food prices exploded 7.3% YoY - the most in 4 years.

This Is The Last Stage Before Recession

The probability of recession is increasing. Contrary to popular belief, the beginning of a recession is not deflationary but the exact opposite. We expect a recession by the end of 2016, and if that projection turns out to be wrong due to a massive turnaround in Fed policy, the cataclysmic event will only be postponed till 2017.

China's Panicked RRR Cut Leads To Feeble Stock Rebound; Gold Resumes Climb

After the G-20 ended in a wave of global disappointment, leading to the biggest Yuan devaluation in 8 weeks, and sending Chinese stocks into a tailspin on concerns the PBOC has forsaken its stock market as well as speculation the housing bubble is now sucking up excess liquidity which in turn pushed global market deep in the red to start the week, it was the PBOC's turn to scramble in a panicked reaction to sliding risk exactly one month after Japan unveiled its own desperation NIRP, and as reported before unexpectedly cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio by 0.5% to 17.0%, the first such cut in 2016 and the 5th since the start of 2015.

Get Back To Work Mr.Draghi - Deflation "Monster" Spreads Across Europe

Today's current inflation data dump from across the European nations appears to confirm forward inflation expectations trend (plumbing new record lows). With a considerably bigger than expected decline in prices , pushing Germany, Spain, and France back into deflation, pressure is mounting on Mr.Draghi. As one EU economist exclaimed, "the data send a clear message to the ECB and the only question that remains now is how bold action would be." Save us Mario from spending less on the things we need...

Now It's China's Turn To Crash: Shanghai Plunges 6.4% Overnight

In recent weeks Chinese stocks remained relatively resilient, levitating quietly day after day. That all changed overnight when the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.4% with the drop accelerating into the close. This was the biggest drop in over a month and was big enough to almost wipe out the entire 10% rebound from the January lows in one session.

Peter Schiff Warns "The Fed's Nightmare Scenario Is Becoming Reality"

Once markets figure out that the Fed is all hat and no cattle when it comes to fighting inflation, the bottom should drop out of the dollar, consumer price increases could accelerate even faster, and the biggest bubble of them all, the one in U.S. Treasuries may finally be pricked. That is when the Fed’s nightmare scenario finally becomes everyone’s reality.

Fed Doves Cry As Core Consumer Prices Jump At Fastest Pace Since August 2011

This must be trasitory, right? Core Consumer Prices surged 0.3% MoM - the biggest jump since August 2011 - and is up 2.2% YoY (the most since June 2012). Furthermore, Shelter costs surged 3.7% YoY - the most since October 2008. We assume this will be ignored for a data-dependent Fed that needs to keep the easing dream alive (as long as stocks are off the highs)...

Biggest Short Squeeze In 7 Years Continues After Bullard Hints At More QE, OECD Cuts Global Forecasts

Just when traders thought that the biggest and most violent 3-day short squeeze in 7 years was about to end a squeeze that has resulted in 3 consecutve 1%+ sessions for the S&P for the first time since October 2011, overnight we got one of the Fed's biggest faux-hakws, St. Louis Fed's Jim Bullard, who said that it would be "unwise" to continue hiking rates at this moment, and hinted that "if needed", the most natural option for the Fed going forward would be to do further Q.E.

China Food Prices Soar Most Since 2013 As Producer Prices Hit 47th Straight Month Of Deflation

Another month and another massive deflationary print for Chinese Producer Prices. Year-over-year, PPI dropped 5.3% ('better' than the 5.3% drop expected and the 5.9% plunge last month) making this the 47th month in a row of deflation with mining's collapse picking up again to -19.8% YoY. On th emore worrisome side, CPI rose 1.8% YoY, below expectations of +1.9% but still the hottest consumer price rise since August (and this was amid the greatest credit binge in history) driven by the biggest jump in food prices since 2013.