Consumer Prices

China Currency War Contagion Spills Out, Leads To Global FX Heatmap Bloodbath, PBOC Intervention

Overnight the world realized that there is much more devaluation to come,  which in turn led to a tidal move higher in the EURUSD as the European banks who had been short the EURCNH (probably the same ones that were long the EURCHF in January ahead of the SNB shocker) continued covering their exposure, and in turn pushed the EURUSD well above 1.11, while the CHF continued to tumble alongside the USD at least when it comes to Europe. In Asia, and local emergin markets, however, it was a different FX story enitrely.

Global Markets Turmoil After China Extends Currency War To 2nd Day - Devalues Yuan To 4 Year Lows

Despite claiming yesterday's devaluation was a "one-off", The PBOC has devalued the Yuan Fix dramatically for the 2nd day in a row - now 22 handles weaker than Monday's Fix. Offshore Yuan is trading at 4 year lows against the USD. The carnage from this dramatic shift is just beginning as global equity markets (US futures to China cash) are tumbling, US Treasury bond yields are crashing, gold is up, China credit risk is at 2 year highs, and China implied vol has exploded to 4 year highs. Ironically, China's government mouthpeiece Xinhua explains "China is not waging a currency war; merely fixing a discrepancy."

Peter Schiff: What Kind Of "Improvement" Does The Fed Want?

If GDP growth only averages 2.0% in the Second Half (which I think is likely), then 2015 growth will only be about 1.7% annually. Given that the Fed didn't raise rates in 2012, 2013, and 2014, when growth was well north of 2%, why would they do so now? Yet Wall Street and the media stubbornly cling to the notion that 3% growth and rate hikes are just around the corner. Old notions die hard, and this one has taken on a life of its own.

Fed Finally Figures Out Soaring Student Debt Is Reason For Exploding College Costs

We are delighted to report that about 7 years after it was glaringly obvious to everyone except the Fed of course, now - with the usual half decade delay - even the NY Fed has finally figured out what even 5 year olds get. "A new study from the New York Federal Reserve faults these policies for enabling college institutions to aggressively raise tuitions. The implication is the federal government is fueling a vicious cycle of higher prices and government aid that ultimately could cost taxpayers and price some Americans out of higher education, similar to what some economists contend happened with the housing bubble."

"This Is The Largest Financial Departure From Reality In Human History"

We have lived through a credit hyper-expansion for the record books, with an unprecedented generation of excess claims to underlying real wealth. In doing so we have created the largest financial departure from reality in human history. Bubbles are not new – humanity has experienced them periodically going all the way back to antiquity – but the novel aspect of this one, apart from its scale, is its occurrence at a point when we have reached or are reaching so many limits on a global scale. The retrenchment we are about to experience as this bubble bursts is also set to be unprecedented, given that the scale of a bust is predictably proportionate to the scale of the excesses during the boom that precedes it. Deflation and depression are mutually reinforcing, meaning the downward spiral will continue for many years. China is the biggest domino about to fall, and from a great height as well, threatening to flatten everything in its path on the way down. This is the beginning of a New World Disorder…

Rent Bubble = Housing Bubble = Rent Bubble

Both bubbles (rents and housing) are vulnerable to popping. The real test of valuation is: what's it worth in a recession, after all the easy money and the jobs that depended on easy money have vanished?

Hilsenrath: Fed Doesn't "Demand" Wage Growth Before Rate Hike

If last week's shocking crash in the Employment Cost Index (ECI) to the smallest increase on record, was enough for some to seal the deal that the Fed will not hike rates for the balance of 2015 (and perhaps ever), here comes the Fed's unofficial mouthpiece, WSJ's Jon "Stingy Consumers" Hilsenrath, to debunk any such speculation with a note which likely came straight from the Fed titled the "Fed Doesn’t Demand Wage Growth Before Increasing Interest Rate."

Chinese Stocks Drop, End Worst Month Since August 2009; US Equity Futures Flat

In a repeat of Thursday's action, Chinese stocks which had opened about 1% lower, remained underwater for most of the session before attempting a feeble bounce which took the Shanghai Composite fractionally into the green, before the now traditional last hour action which this time failed to maintain the upward momentum and the last day of the month saw a surge in volume which dragged the market to its lows before closing roughly where it opened, -1.13% lower.  This caps the worst month for Chinese stocks since since August 2009, as the government struggles to rekindle investor interest amid a $3.5 trillion rout, one which has sent the Shanghai market lower by 15% - the biggest loss among 93 global benchmark gauges tracked by Bloomberg.

Frontrunning: July 30

  • Second-quarter GDP seen rebounding on consumer spending, housing (Reuters)
  • China Stocks Fall as Traders Puzzle Over Sudden Late-Day Swings (BBG)
  • European 'alliance of national liberation fronts' emerges to avenge Greek defeat (Telegraph)
  • Thomas Cook warns on earnings over Greece (MW)
  • Largest Greek toy seller Jumbo warns of hit from capital controls (Kathimerini)
  • Chevron and Exxon Get the Plaudits, but Some Smaller Drillers Faring Well (WSJ)
  • Schäuble outlines plan to limit European Commission powers (FT)
  • UBS Deal Shows Clinton’s Complicated Ties (WSJ)

Gold "Flash-Crashes" Again Amid Continued Commodity Liquidation As China Manufacturing Slumps To 15-Month Lows

As Bridgewater talks back its now widely discussed bearish position on fallout from China's equity market collapse, Chinese stocks rose at the open (before fading after ugly manufacturing data). However, liquidations continue across the commodity complex in copper, gold, and silver. Though not on the scale to Sunday night's collapse, the China open brought another 'flash-crash' in precious metals. All signs point to CCFD unwinds, and forced liquidations as under the surface something smells rotten in China, which has just been confirmed by the lowest Manufacturing PMI print in 15 months.

Hoisington On Bond Market Misperceptions: "Secular Low In Treasury Yields Still To Come"

In almost all cases, including the most recent rise, the intermittent change in psychology that drove interest rates higher in the short run, occurred despite weakening inflation. There was, however, always a strong sentiment that the rise marked the end of the bull market, and a major trend reversal was taking place. This is also the case today. Presently, four misperceptions have pushed Treasury bond yields to levels that represent significant value for long-term investors. While Treasury bond yields have repeatedly shown the ability to rise in response to a multitude of short-run concerns that fade in and out of the bond market on a regular basis, the secular low in Treasury bond yields is not likely to occur until inflation troughs and real yields are well below long-run mean values.