Consumer Sentiment

Piling On To The "Surreal" Response To Turkish Turmoil: Here Comes The Central Bank

In less than half an hour, the Turkish central bank will steal the public spotlight, if only very briefly, from Erdogan when it announces whether it will cut rates by 50 bps, 25 bps, (or - less likely - it won't cut at all). But in light of the recent stunning transformation in the country's political landscape, does this decision really matter? According to the market yes; according to Bloomberg's Richard Breslow, it is simply one more indication of how surreal the response to the Turkish turmoil has become.

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

Global Stock Rally Halted In Aftermath Of Latest French Terror Attack

The tremendous rally of the past 4 days that has sent global stocks soaring in recent days has finally been capped and European shares, S&P futures are all modestly lower following a deadly terror attack in Nice, France. Meanwhile Asian stocks rose as Chinese economic data beat estimates, with Q2 GDP rising by 0.1% more than the estimated 6.6% on the back of stronger housing data.

Key Events In The Coming Week

With the key event of the week flying largely under the radar, which as previewed here last week was Bernanke's visit to Japan which has already led to another global market spike, here are the rest of the week's events.

Goldman Now Sees A Two-Thirds Chance Of A Rate Hike In 2016

US employment growth rebounded sharply in June, according to Goldman's Jan Hatzius, and as a result, the bank confirms their expectation of about a two-thirds chance that the FOMC will raise rates this year, most likely in December... notably different from market expectations.

Frontrunning: July 8

  • Snipers kill five Dallas police; Obama calls it 'despicable' attack (Reuters)
  • Global stocks regain ground, Treasury near record low as U.S. jobs data looms (Reuters)
  • House Republicans Push for New Hillary Clinton Investigation (WSJ)
  • Obama urges NATO to stand firm against Russia despite Brexit (Reuters)
  • Kremlin says NATO talk of Russian threat absurd, short-sighted (Reuters)

US Futures Rebound After Volatile Session, All Eyes On June Payrolls

In a session where bleary-eyed traders followed the all-night tragic developments out of Dallas and initially sold off risk assets, it is good to see that some normalcy prevailed with the traditional post Europe-open futures ramp, which was further assisted by the successful resolution of the Dallas standoff, which has pushed futures modestly higher ahead of today's main event for markets, the June payrolls report due in under two hours.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All About Brexit

With global markets gyrating on every piece of news surrounding the Brexit drama, what’s the timetable for UK-related (and all other macro) events this week and beyond?

European Stocks, US Futures Extend Slide On UK Chaos, Pound Carnage

With global asset correlations once again approaching 1, overnight stocks have been trading in broadly "risk off" mode, following every twist of pound sterling and the rapidly deteriorating British financial situation as "chaos infects" virtually all markets, from China, to European banks, to US equity futures.  As a result of ongoing aftershocks from the Brexit vote, coupled with the sudden political chaos in UK politics, where both parties now seem in disarray, with the pound has extended its selloff to a fresh 31-year low dropping below the Friday lows while European equities are dropping to levels last seen in February.

Nomura Warns "Do Not Underestimate The Global Contagion" From Brexit

In a nutshell, Nomura expects the global impact of the Brexit to be more through the financial, confidence and psychology channels than simply through trade. Their warning is to not underestimate the depth and reach of global financial market contagion, which seems to have increased since 2008.

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Says Labor Market "Will Strengthen" But Slashes Rates Hike Trajectory

With bonds and bullion remainig bid post payrolls, post May Minutes, post April FOMC, and post December's Fed rate-hike, it is clear that the market is losing faith in The Fed... and we suspect The Fed is losing faith in itself as it takes the ax (once again) to its growth and rate forecasts (the dot-plot).

  • *FED SAYS IT EXPECTS LABOR MARKET INDICATORS `WILL STRENGTHEN'
  • *FED: MEDIAN FED FUNDS EST. 1.6% END-2017 VS 1.9% IN MARCH
  • *FED SAYS PACE OF LABOR MARKET IMPROVEMENT HAS SLOWED

July rate-hike odds are at 18% (and Sept at 19%). Pre-Fed: S&P Futs 2082, 10Y 1.61%, EUR 1.1240, Gold $1285

Global Stocks Plunge; US Futures, Oil Slide As Brexit Fears "Jolt Markets"

Right now it is all about the immediate fate of the UK, and as Bloomberg explains the "jolted markets" and overnight plunge in global risk assets, "growing anxiety over the prospect of the U.K. exiting the European Union dominated financial markets, sending global stocks down for a third day and the British pound to an eight-week low while boosting demand for havens such as the yen and gold."

Global Stocks Sharply Lower As Bond Yields Hit New Record Lows; Oil Slides Below $50

Global stocks, U.S. index futures are sharply lower pressured by fears of another day of record low bond yields, as investors start to worry about numerous risk catalysts in the coming weeks, from the Brexit vote to Fed meeting. The Dollar spot index rose for the second day in a row, pushing commodities lower for their first two-day decline since May 24, while WTI has dipped back under $50.

Key Events In The Coming Week

After last week's global data deluge which culminated with the worst US jobs reported in 6 years, looking at this week’s calendar we get the usual post-payrolls data lull, punctuated by Yellen's speech today which will be the last scheduled Fed statement before the June FOMC.