Consumer Sentiment

Consumer Confidence Disappoints As Trump Hope Dips

After surging to 12-year highs in December, following Trump's election victory, UMich consumer sentiment faded in January and missed expectations (98.1 vs 98.5 exp). While inflation outlooks picked up modestly off record lows, economic 'expectations' - hope - dipped from 89.5 to 88.9 as the Trump Bump appears to have stalled.

Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump

The main economic release this week is US retail sales, ECB minutes and a series of Chinese economic releases. There are several scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including a webcast address by Chair Yellen on Thursday. However, the highlight of the upcoming first full week of 2017 might well be President-elect Trump's first news conference on Wednesday since his election win.

Party Like The Dow Is 19,999: US Futures Dip As Global Currencies Stumble; Oil Down, Gold Up

European, Asian stocks fall and U.S. equity-index futures traded mixed on Monday with fresh memories of the Dow Jones rising to under 1 point of 20,000 on Friday. The dollar has rebounded on fresh geopolitical concerns, while the pound extends its decline from Friday and has slide to 10 week lows on a Sunday interview from Theresa May which suggested a "Hard Brexit" may be in the cards.

Frontrunning: January 6

  • December Jobs Data to Wrap Up Obama’s Economic Legacy (WSJ)
  • FBI Says Democrats Refused Access to Hacked E-Mail Servers (BBG)
  • As Trump attacks, Nissan at bigger risk than Toyota (Reuters)
  • Democratic leader Schumer emerges as Trump's newest punching bag (Reuters)
  • PBoC raises renminbi’s daily fix by most since 2005 (FT)
  • China central bank urges rational investment in bitcoin (Reuters)

2017 Starts Off With A Bang: US Futures, Oil Jump On Upbeat China Data; Europe Enters Bull Market

Rumors of the Trumpflation rally's death have been greatly exagerated, and not only is the Dow 20,000 back on the radar, following a 124 point surge in Dow futures, bringing the "key psychological level" back within 100 points, but European stocks rose for a third day and entered a bull market, rising 20% from theor lows set last February, following strong Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data.

3 Things: Records Are Records For A Reason

First, 'record levels' of anything are records for a reason. It is the point at which previous limits were reached. Therefore, when a ‘record level’ is reached, it is NOT THE BEGINNING, but rather an indication of the MATURITY of a cycle. While the media has focused on employment, record stock market levels, etc. as a sign of an ongoing economic recovery, history suggests caution.  The charts below suggest that current levels should be a sign of caution rather than exuberance.

An Odd Disconnect: Consumer Confidence At 12 Year HIgh As Inflation Expectations Tumble To All Time Lows

In an odd divergence, the latest UMichigan consumer sentiment print hit a 12 year high, rising from 93.8 in November to 98.2, even as long-term inflation expectation, those in the 5-10 year bucket, dropped from 2.50% to 2.30%, a new all time low print. However, confirming the political bias behind the report, UMich chief economist Richard Curtin said that "sentiment is likely to fall in coming months."

Key Events In The Coming Pre-Holiday Week

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Thursday. Chair Yellen’s speech on the labor market on Monday afternoon is also likely to garner considerable attention.

Janet Yellen Explains How Dovish Her Rate Hike Is - Fed Press Conference Live Feed

Just as Mario Draghi exlained how his reduced bond buying was not a taper, we suspect the narrative espoused by Janet Yellen in her press conference today will be just how dovish this rate hike is.. and how the rate of normalization will be very gradual. The big question is, how will she respond to question about Trump's fiscal stimulus plan? Of course, this also may be her last flourish as Fed head, so anything goes.