Continuing Claims

Futures, European Shares Stumble After Massively Overbought World Stocks Hit Record High

Whether it is due to overnight news that much of the recent rally may have been due to one specific fund's cover of a synthetic "short SPY" trade, or just because algo traders have gotten a case of overbought robotic vertigo, S&P futures dropped 0.2% in early Thursday trading as risk appetite fizzled and European shares dropped on concern the longest rally since July 2015 went too far, while the yen, bonds and gold advanced as the dollar fell.

Initial Jobless Claims Plunge To 44 Year Lows

While continuing claims continue to rise post-election, initial jobless claims have collapsed back to with 1k of the lowest levels since 1973. While everything is awesome with this print, one wonders what happens next? Which is more likely - higher or lower from here?

Asian Stocks Hit 18 Month High; Europe, US Futures Bounce As Dollar Rises

Asian stocks hit their highest level in 18 months, with positive momentum lifting European shares which were helped by Societe Generale earnings. Yields fell on some of the euro zone's battered low-rated bonds as investors put aside the political risks that have dominated markets this week. After trading flat, S&P futures bounced as US traders walked boosted by a spike in the USDJPY.

Key Events In The Coming Week: All Eyes On Trump's First Actions

The key economic releases this week are durable goods and GDP on Friday. On the political front, the focus will be is on the first actions of the Trump administration including moves on TPP and NAFTA. There are no scheduled Fed speeches this week.

Initial Claims Crash To 44 Year Lows But Over 700,000 More People Are On Jobless Benefits Since Trump Was Elected

1.74mm people were 'continuing' to claim jobless benefits before Donald Trump was elected. In a mysterious fluke of statistical smoke and mirrors, that marked the absolute trough in the data series - showing just how awesome the economy was for Hillbama. Last week's 2.46mm print for continuing claims suggests (while seasonal aspects are at play), over 700,000 more people are now claiming unemployment benefits than before Trump was elected.

Global Stocks Dip; Bond Yields, Dollar Rise After Yellen's Rate Guidance; All Eyes On Draghi

European and Asian shares, and S&P futures slipped, while government bond yields jumped to multi-week highs on Thursday after Yellen's hawkish speech. Oil rose after API reported a drop in crude inventories. The euro rebounded as investors look to Mario Draghi to address rising European inflation that make the ECB's stimulative policies look increasingly out of sync.

Key Events In The Coming Week: Trump Inauguration, Davos, Theresa May, ECB, China GDP

The week ahead will be a busy one, with a plethora of events including the Davos shindig, where particular focus will be on Chinese President Xi Jinping, the first Chinese president to attend. China will also announce GDP on Friday, which also marks the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 45th US president. Tuesday brings Theresa May's long-awaited Brexit speech.

What Wall Street Expects From Today's Payrolls Reports

With all eyes likely on wage growth indications in the subtext of tomorrow's payrolls report (following The Fed Minutes' comments on full employment), Goldman Sachs is forecasting a better-than-expected 0.3% rebound in average hourly earnings (helped by more favorable calendar effects) and a better-than-expected 180k payrolls print (albeit with a small rise in the unemployment rate). However, they are careful to note that any downside can be blamed on "a considerable drop in temperatures."

Thusday Humor: Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims dropped once again, back near 43 year lows this week (-4 to 254k) as Continuing Claims picked up 11k to 2.018 million. As the following two charts show, this is all very humorous...

Global Equity Euphoria Prepares To Meet Mario Draghi

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.