Continuing Claims

Initial Jobless Claims Suddenly Surge To 5-Month Highs, Continuing Claims Spike

Weak surveys, mass layoffs, and poor outlooks appear to have finally rippled through the government's data and sparked a significant rise in initial jobless claims. Up 13k to 282k, this is the highest claims since early July. Of course, it remains below the Maginot Line of 300k which 'proves' everything is awesome, but initial claims is now at the same level as it was when The Fed ended QE3. Perhaps more notable is the spike in continuing claims (up 3.8%) - the end biggest jump since 2008 to 3 month highs.

After Vicious Rollercoaster Session, Global Stocks Flat, US Futures Stage Tepid Rebound In Illiquid Chaos

After yesterday's rollercoaster session in both the S&P and in oil, where initially stocks soared alongside oil, only to promptly tumble as stops were taken out and as the refiners' inventory strategy was exposed after the DOE's latest weekly numbers were released, it has been a quieter session so far, though maybe not for China where stocks jumped at the open only to fizzle and close at the lows in what appears to be ever less intervention by the market manipulating "National Team."

European Stocks, US Futures Surge On Last Minute Hopes Of "Extraordinary Policy Easing" By Mario Draghi

Yesterday's market swoon which unwound all of Tuesday's gains on concerns about a hawkish Fed and fears about terrorism in the US, are now completely forgotten, and have been replaced with the latest daily round of pre-ECB euphoria, driven by hopes that Mario Draghi will announce even more dovish details to Europe's Q€ 2 than just a 10 bps rate cut and a boost to QE more than €10 billion, both of which have been already priced in.

Continuing Jobless Claims Rise At Fastest Pace Since July 2013

While initial claims collapsed 11k to 260k, practically cycle lows and the hovering at the lowest level since 1973. But in continuing claims, something is different. The last 4 weeks have seen continuing claims rise 2.85% - the fastest pace of increase since July 2013. Of course, none of that matters with a Fed set on hiking rates no matter what, but it is seasonally aberrant to see a surge of this scale this time of year.

Global Markets Surge Overnight On Fed Minutes Optimism; ECB Minutes Set To Keep Rally Going

While it is still unclear just why the FOMC Minutes which are said to have made a December liftoff "more likely" unleashed a dramatic market rally, one which sent both stocks and TSYs higher, the sentiment continued overnight, with both Asian stocks surging on the US momentum, as well as Europe, where the DAX gapped solidly above the 200 DMA as most European shares advanced, led by resources, travel stocks. U.S. futures continue their ramp higher, and at last check were another 8 points, or 0.4%, in the green.  But if the Fed Minutes were enough to unleash the latest leg in this rally, than the ECB's own minutes due also today, should send futures back over 2100 without much difficult, regardless of their actual content.

Euro Crushed By Draghi's Latest "Whatever It Takes" Moment; Fed Speaker Barrage On Deck

The biggest event overnight came from Europe, where Draghi managed to once again jawbone the Euro lower by ober 50 pips when he told European lawmakers in a prepared testimony that downside economic risks are "clearly visible," repeating his October press conference statement, adding that the ECB will reexamine degree of accommodation in December as "inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened." And the statement that crushed the Euro: "If we were to conclude that our medium-term price stability objective is at risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained." I.e., another "whatever it takes" moment.

Futures Surge As ECB Bankers Resort To Verbal Intervention, Suggest More QE Needed

Aside from Chinese monetary data, it was a relatively quiet session in which traders were focusing on every move in the suddenly tumbling USD, and parsing every phrase by central bankers around the globe, as well as the previously noted piece by Fed mouthpiece Jon Hilsenrath which effectively ended the debate whether there will be rate hikes in 2015. Adding to the overnight froth were ECB speakers first Ewald Nowotny and then Spain's Restoy, who said that euro-area core inflation "clearly" below goal, remarks which were immediately assumed to signal increasing pressure to boost stimulus, and which promptly translated into even more weakness in EUR and equity strength, pushing US futures up about 15 points from yesterday's close.

Futures Slump On Lack Of Chinese Euphoria Despite More Terrible Economic Data

It was supposed to be the day China's triumphantly returned to the markets from its Golden Holiday week off, and with global stocks soaring over 5% in the past 7 days, hopes were that the Shanghai Composite would close at least that much higher and then some, especially with the "National Team" cheerleading on the side and arresting any sellers. Sure enough, in early trading Chinese futures did seem willing to go with the script, and then everything fell apart when a weak Shanghai Composite open tried to stage a feeble rebound into mid-session, and then closed near the day lows even as the PBOC injected another CNY120 bn via reverse repo earlier.

Does Not Compute: DOL Continues To Paint Rosy Jobless Claims Picture As Challenger Sees "Surge" In Unemployment

Does not compute. That may be the best way to summarize the discrepancy between the statistically-massaged, seasonally-adjusted initial claims data reported by the DOL, and what Challenger reported just an hour earlier when it said that U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 58,877 in September, a 43 percent increase from the previous month. Worse, for 2015 YTD, employers have announced 493,431 planned layoffs, 36 percent more than the 363,408 cuts tracked from January through September a year ago. Someone is lying.

Stocks Tumble As Emissions Scandal Spreads To BMW; NOK Plunges On Unexpected Norway Rate Cut

European equity have been weighed on by BMW after reports in German press that the Co.'s emission tests for their X3 model could show worse results than that of the Volkswagen Passat. The Norwegian and Taiwanese central banks have both cut interest rates, taking the number of central banks to cut rates this year to 40. Today's highlights include US weekly jobs data and durable goods orders as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Fed's Yellen. Of note US data, including jobless claims, durables and home sales will be delayed today & not released to newswires 1st due to Pope's visit

The Fed's Long Awaited Decision Day Arrives, And Chinese Stocks Wipe Out In The Last 15 Minutes

The long awaited day is finally here by which we, of course, mean the day when nobody has any idea what the Fed will do, the Fed included. Putting today in perspective, there have been just about 700 rate cuts globally in the 3,367 days since the last Fed rate hike on June 29, 2006, while central banks have bought $15 trillion in assets, and vast portions of the world are now in negative interest rate territory.