Continuing Claims

Thusday Humor: Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims dropped once again, back near 43 year lows this week (-4 to 254k) as Continuing Claims picked up 11k to 2.018 million. As the following two charts show, this is all very humorous...

Global Equity Euphoria Prepares To Meet Mario Draghi

There’s seemingly no stopping the equity side of the “Trumpflation” trade in what may be developing into an epic year end blow-off top. The euphoria which took the S&P 500, Russell 2000 and the Transports to all-time highs yesterday, and the Dow to less than 500 points away from 20,000 carried over into Asian stocks (+0.8%) as they followed bullish trend, while European stocks rose for a fourth day.

Euro In Historic Slide As Dollar Surge, Bond Rout Continues

More of the same this morning as the dollar extended its advance on the still undeteremined Trump reflationary policy measures after Yellen signaled an interest-rate hike could be imminent, while bond yields around the globe rose again, metals declined,  European stocks advanced and futures were modestly in the red just shy of all time highs.

BOJ "Fires Warning At Bond Market" Sending Global Yields, Dollar Lower; All Eyes On Yellen

Global bond yields and the dollar both weakened after the Bank of Japan offered to buy an unlimited amount of debt at fixed yields, stabilizing the global bond rout, while investors awaited testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that will help shape the outlook for interest rates ahead of a December rate hike that is now seen as near certain.

The October Payrolls Report: What Wall Street Expects

While the October payrolls report, due out at 8:30am on Friday, has taken on a secondary importance in light of the market's near certainty that the Fed will hike rates in December (absent a Trump victory and/or a market crash), analysts and traders will surely be concerned any prominent outlier prints that deviate too far from the consensus estimate of 175K. So, in preview of tomorrow's biggest economic update, here is a snapshot of what Wall Street expects.

Initial Jobless Claims Jump Most Since May To 3-Month Highs

The last four weeks have seen initial jobless claims rise over 7.7% (~19k), the fastest pace in 5 months, pushing to 265k, the highest level since the start of August. For context, while initial claims have been stable at near record lows this year, claims have not 'improved' since July 2015.

US Futures Flat, Rebound From Session Lows On Rising Election Jitters

Asian stocks, S&P futures and European shares trade flat as a tightening race for the U.S. presidency spurs demand for haven assets including the yen while weighing on stocks and Mexico’s peso. A turbulent overnight session saw some early risk off following the plunge in Facebook shares and the Fox News report that an FBI probe into the Clinton foundation may lead to a "likely indictment."

Global Stocks, US Futures Modestly Higher As Debate Digested, Draghi Eyed

Global stocks were modestly higher, before the European Central Bank gives its policy update, while investors weigh mixed earnings results. Asian stocks rise, U.S. equity-index futures are little changed.  The euro touched its weakest level since July and stocks in the region fell after their first back-to-back gains in two weeks.

"The Most Important Ever" Payrolls Preview (Again)

The distribution of guesses for tomorrow's "most important payrolls print ever" skews modestly to the upside after the biggest spike in ISM employment ever this week jarred some economists to the more optimistic side with Goldman Sachs expecting a Fed-inspiring drop in the unemployment rate, rise in average hourly earnings, and better than expected payrolls of 190k (172k exp).

Soothing Fed Sends Global Stocks, US Futures, Commodities Higher

Following the Fed's "hawkish hold" and the BOJ's "confused contradiction", global risk (and non-risk) assets got the green light, and as a result stocks and bonds rallied in Asia and Europe, with US equity futures rising another 0.4%, advancing with oil and industrial metals, as iron surged in Chinese trading.