Continuing Claims

Does Not Compute: DOL Continues To Paint Rosy Jobless Claims Picture As Challenger Sees "Surge" In Unemployment

Does not compute. That may be the best way to summarize the discrepancy between the statistically-massaged, seasonally-adjusted initial claims data reported by the DOL, and what Challenger reported just an hour earlier when it said that U.S.-based employers announced plans to shed 58,877 in September, a 43 percent increase from the previous month. Worse, for 2015 YTD, employers have announced 493,431 planned layoffs, 36 percent more than the 363,408 cuts tracked from January through September a year ago. Someone is lying.

Stocks Tumble As Emissions Scandal Spreads To BMW; NOK Plunges On Unexpected Norway Rate Cut

European equity have been weighed on by BMW after reports in German press that the Co.'s emission tests for their X3 model could show worse results than that of the Volkswagen Passat. The Norwegian and Taiwanese central banks have both cut interest rates, taking the number of central banks to cut rates this year to 40. Today's highlights include US weekly jobs data and durable goods orders as well as comments from ECB's Praet and Fed's Yellen. Of note US data, including jobless claims, durables and home sales will be delayed today & not released to newswires 1st due to Pope's visit

The Fed's Long Awaited Decision Day Arrives, And Chinese Stocks Wipe Out In The Last 15 Minutes

The long awaited day is finally here by which we, of course, mean the day when nobody has any idea what the Fed will do, the Fed included. Putting today in perspective, there have been just about 700 rate cuts globally in the 3,367 days since the last Fed rate hike on June 29, 2006, while central banks have bought $15 trillion in assets, and vast portions of the world are now in negative interest rate territory.

With China's Market Chaos Offline, Futures Levitate On ECB Easing Hopes

With China closed today, the usual overnight market manipulation fireworks out of Beijing were absent but that does not meant asset levitation could not take place, and instead of the daily kick start out of China today it has been all about the ECB which as we previewed two days ago, is expected - at least by some such as ABN Amro - to outright boost its QE, while virtually everyone else expects Draghi to not only cut the ECB's inflation forecast, which reminds us of the chart which in March we dubbed the biggest hockeystick ever (we knew it wouldn't last) but to verbally jawbone the Euro as low as possible (i.e., the Dax as high as it will get) even if the former Goldmanite does not explicitly commit to more QE.

Aggressive Chinese Intervention Prevents Another Rout, Sends Stocks Soaring 5% In Last Trading Hour; US Futures Jump

After a 5 day tumbling streak, which saw Chinese stock plunge well over 20% and 17% in just the first three days of this week, overnight the Shanghai Composite was hanging by a thread (and threat) until the last hour of trading. In fact, this is what the SHCOMP looked like until the very end: Up 2.6%, up 1.2%, up 2.8%, up 0.6%, up 2%... down 0.2%. And then the cavalry came in: "Heavyweight stocks like banks and insurance companies helped pull up the index, and it’s possibly China Securities Finance entering the market again to shore up stocks," Central China Sec. strategist Zhang Gang told Bloomberg by phone. Net result: the Composite, having been red just shortly before the close, soared higher by 156 points or 5.4%, showing the US stock market just how it's down.

Dazed And Confused: Futures Tumble Below 200 DMA, Oil Near $40, Soaring Treasurys Signal Deflationary Deluge

It is unclear what precipitated it (some blamed China concerns, fears of rate hikes, commodity weakness, technical picture deterioration although  it's all just goalseeking guesswork) but overnight S&P futures followed yesterday's unexpected slide following what were explicitly dovish Fed minutes, and took another sharp leg lower down by almost 20 points, set to open below the 200 DMA again, as the dazed and confused investing world reacts to what both the Treasury and Oil market signal is a deflationary deluge. Indeed, oil is about to trade under $40 while the 10Y Treasury was last seen trading at 2.07%. Incidentally, the last time oil was here in March of 2009, the Fed was about to unleash QE 1. This time, so called experts are debating if the Fed will hike rates in one month or three.

Risk On Despite Third Chinese Devaluation In A Row As PBOC Jawbones, Intervenes In FX Market

With everyone now focused on what China's daily Yuan fixing will be ever night, there was some confusion why last night the PBOC decided to devalue the CNY by another 1.1% to 6.4010, despite its promise that the devaluation would be a "one-off" event, taking the 3 day devaluation to just about 4.5%. However, subsequently in a press conference, central bank vice-governor Yi Gang said that the PBoC will continue to step in when the market is ‘distorted’, that there is no economic basis for the Yuan to fall continuously and that it will look to keep the exchange rate ‘basically stable’. The Vice-Governor also said that the PBoC will closely monitor cross-border capital flows and that reports suggesting the Central Banks wants to see the currency depreciate 10% are ‘groundless’. Which is ironic considering after just 3 days, the PBOC is already half the way there!

RANsquawk Video: Focus turns to NFP as the September Rate Decision looms

 

  • US Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) M/M Exp. 225K (Low 140K, High 310K), Prev. 223K, May. 280K
  • US Unemployment Rate (Jul) M/M Exp. 5.3% (Low 5.2%, High 5.4%), Prev. 5.3%, Apr. 5.5%
  • US Average Hourly Earnings (Jul) M/M Exp. 0.2% (Low 0.1%, High 0.3%), Prev. 0.0%, Apr. 0.3%

Futures Flat, China Slides Again, Oil Tumbles Near 2015 Lows

It has been more of the same in the latest quiet overnight session where many await tomorrow's NFP data for much needed guidance, and where Chinese markets opened weaker, rose during the day, then went through a mini rollercoaster, then sold off in the afternoon.  The Shanghai Composite and HS China Enterprises indices finished down .9% and .3%, respectively. Trading volume continued to be very subdued, running at half the thirty day average as some 20 million "investors" have pulled out of the market to be replaced with HFTs such as Virtu.  But while stock action has been muted, the story of the night so far is oil and the energy complex broke out of a tight overnight range early in the European session to continue yesterday's downward trend, seeing WTI Sep'15 futures fall below the USD 45.00 handle after yesterday's DoE crude oil inventories saw US crude output rise by 0.552%. As of this moment oil was trading at $44.72, just pennies above the low print of 2015.