Copper

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Priced For Perfection - Why This Burrito Market Is Heading For A Fall





In March 2014 Wall Street’s ex-items S&P 500 earnings forecast for 2015 was about $133 per share; it ended up 20% lower at $106. Yet here they go again - the consensus for 2016 started out at $137 per share last spring, and is just now beginning to make its way back toward the high $120s. It is a barometer of the abject complacency and intellectual sloth that has descended on the casino owing to two decades of Fed coddling and seven year of free money for the carry trades. In the case of Chipotle, it was always just a burrito. In the case of the US and world economy and financial markets, it’s not even that.

 
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For Commodities, This Is The Next Great Depression





While the "sell in 1973, and go away" plan had worked out for some in the commodity space, the destruction of the last decade has only one historical comparison... the middle of The Great Depression.

 
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Copper Futures Crash Below $2 For First Time Since 2009





Dr. Copper is sick. For the first time since May 2009, Copper futures prices traded with a $1 handle this morning ($1.99) as Nomura analysts warn the commodity is likely to see more downside risk over the medium term as the market is expected to remain in surplus through the end of the decade.

 
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Global Stocks Crash After Spiraling Chinese Devaluation Unleashes Worldwide Chaos And Selling





Once China set the Yuan fixing some 0.5% lower, the biggest drop since the August devaluation, all hell broke loose and unleashed a global selling panic after China's stock market was promptly shut down less than 30 minutes into trading, then European shares dropped the most in more than 4 months as Asian equities plunges, as did US stock futures, the dollar weakened against the euro and the yen; crude plunged to fresh 12 year lows. Gold rose.

 
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Frontrunning: January 6





  • Obama, wiping tears, makes new push to tighten gun rules (Reuters)
  • Global stocks hit by China worries, North Korea nuclear test (Reuters)
  • Oil hits 11-year low, Saudi-Iran row cuts chances of output restraint (Reuters)
  • North Korea says successfully conducts first H-bomb test (Reuters)
  • Valeant Planning to Appoint New Leader as CEO Remains Hospitalized (WSJ)
  • Treasuries Extend 2016 Winning Start With Growth Outlook Clouded (BBG)
 
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The Carnage Returns: Stocks Tumble After Sharp Chinese Devaluation; Brent At 2004 Lows; Gold Surges





Before we go into details of the overnight carnage, this is where we stand currently: S&P futures now down 33 points or 1.63% while 2Y Treasury rallies pushing its yield back below 1% as EU stocks extend their drop after China weakened its currency, North Korea says it tested a hydrogen bomb; Brent crude falls to lowest level since 2004.

 
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Visualizing How The Global Economy Played Out In 2015





Many people start a new year with renewed optimism. However, "New Year, Same Problems" is the meme of 2016... and recent trading has dashed some of that optimistic 'This time it's different' hope.

 
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Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders





After yesterday's historic -6.9% rout in the Shanghai Composite, which saw the first new marketwide circuit breaker trading halt applied to Chinese stocks (on its first day of operation), many were wondering if the Chinese government would intervene in both the once again imploding stock market, as well as China's plunging and rapidly devaluing currency. And, after the SHCOMP opened down -3%, the government did not disappoint and promptly intervened in both the Yuan as well as the stock market, however with very mixed results which global stocks took a sign that the "national team" is no longer focused solely on stocks, and have resumed selling for a second consecutive day. 

 
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What Really Happened In 2015, And What Is Coming In 2016...





A lot of people were expecting some really great things to happen in 2015, but most of them did not happen.  But what did happen? A global financial crisis began during the second half of 2015 threatens to greatly accelerate as we enter 2016. This is what the early stages of a financial crisis look like, and the worst is yet to come.

 
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The Best And Worst Performing Assets Of 2015





With markets wrapped up for 2015 now, reviewing the performance of asset classes last year shows that it was one where negative asset class returns were aplenty, while those finishing in positive territory were few and far between. Indeed, of the 42 assets we monitor in Figure 5, just 9 finished with a positive return in Dollar-adjusted terms over the full year.  At the other end of the scale there were some notable losers.

 

 
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Happy New Year: Global Stocks Crash After China Is Halted Limit Down In Worst Start To Year In History





It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party and it all well south very, very quickly...

 
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Derailed? What Rail Traffic Tells Us About The U.S. Economy





Rail volumes provides a mixed picture of the US economy at this point: oil & gas and mining-related sectors are taking a real beating, some consumer sectors seem to be holding up and there are signs of weakness in the housing sector. 2016 should witness some type of a resolution here.

 
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