Copper

Although its interests in the continent are broadly similar, India’s engagement with Africa differs significantly from China. Will it prove sustainable? Close ties between India and Africa are not new. Trade has flourished between East Africa and India’s west coast for centuries. New Delhi’s interest in Africa waned in the 1990s, but rapid economic growth and soaring energy requirements, however, forced India at the turn of the new millennium to rethink its neglect of Africa. The domination of oil and natural resources in India’s imports from Africa and of manufactured goods in its exports to the continent has drawn criticism that India is indulging in a “neo-colonial grab” for Africa’s resources. "This is an uninformed view. Africa of today is not the same as during colonial times. When countries exploit the resources of Africa today, the terms are set by the African nations and not by outsiders. The deals are mutually beneficial." India hopes that its capacity building, people-centric approach and efforts to build a sustainable partnership with Africa will keep such allegations at bay.

Europe started to bleed after the Spain bailout debacle but from the open, US markets fell. They plunged on the ISM miss, bounced to VWAP in their wonderfully efficient way, and then spent the rest of the day shaking off the idiocy of last week's window-dressing. S&P 500 futures (ES) fell from 1424 highs to close at the day's lows around 1407 (still around 10 points rich to short-term Treasuries). When the ISM hit we saw Gold rally and Stocks dump to recouple the two assets for the day but overall it was stocks that were harder hit than other risk assets today - though evidently they were also major outperformers last week, so this is catch down as opposed to over-pessimism for now. Stocks were weak today in the face of a weaker USD (correlations breaking down) and a relatively unchanged Treasury market. Gold, Copper, and Oil all closed clustered together just in the green with Silver outperforming and VIX jumped 0.75 vols to 16.6% (highest in two weeks). High-yield credit had quite a day...

Whether you trust the squid and their thought process or believe in 'better the devil you know', Goldman's top thinkers - from Garzarelli to Himmelberg and from Stolper to Hatzius and Wilson - lay out the top ten global macro themes from their economic outlook that will dominate markets in 2013. Agree or disagree, one thing is for sure - these ten 'themes' will impact us all one way or another and for each theme, Goldman discusses the wider implications for markets, and the potential issues and options for investing around them. Aside from the ten key themes, they provide succinct macro outlooks for rates (steeper curves and seniorty shifts), FX (moderate USD weakness amid broad stability), equities (accelerating growth and risk reduction underpin a solid 2013), and credit ('search for yield' has less to find).

In our first installment of this series we explored the concept of stock to flow in the gold markets being the key driver of supply/demand dynamics, and ultimately its price. Today we are going to explore the paper markets and, importantly, to what degree they distort upwardly the “flow” of the physical gold market. We believe the very existence of paper gold creates the illusion of physical gold flow that does not and physically cannot exist. After all, if flow determines price – and if paper flow simulates physical metal movement to a degree much larger than is possible – doesn’t it then suggest that paper flow creates an artificially low price?
Leveraged systems are based on confidence – confidence in efficient exchanges, confidence in reputable counterparties, and confidence in the rule of law. As we have learned (or should have learned) with the failures of Long Term Capital Management, Lehman Brothers, AIG, Fannie & Freddie, and MF Global – the unwind from a highly leveraged system can be sudden and chaotic. These systems function…until they don’t. CDOs were AAA... until they weren’t. Paper Gold is just like allocated, unambiguously owned physical bullion... until it’s not.

With a late-day surge into the green for the S&P 500 futures on (as usual) absolutely no news at all (attributed to MSCI rebalancing) - that crossed the entire day's range in the space of 40 minutes, the Dow managed to just hold 13,000 and close green for the week. There was very significant volume and block size into the ramp as it pulled away from risk-assets as only a month-end move can magically achieve. In the same way as last Friday's close was just remarkably silly, today followed the same path - though we note that rates and credit were outperforming stocks most of the day and provided the target for the late-day surge. Once that target was closed, S&P 500 futures then melted-down around the close and after-hours. Utilities were the big winners on the week (+3.5%) as Financials and Energy lost around 0.7%. Silver crumbled to recouple with Gold (down around 2% on the week) while Copper gained 3%. Treasury yields steepened into the close with the 30Y pushing higher but ending -2bps (while the 10Y was -7bps). What a crazy stop-hunting, algo-driven, VWAP-reverting end to a week of political volatility.

Looks like yesterday put into practice: Let’s thank everyone to turn around markets, when they sink. Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds (but themselves). Italy brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given ROn in Risk and Periphery. Strong US GDP revision – but, as expected anyway. Given the actual level in Risk, good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more, never. Swimming in a Sea of (Risk) Love. Watch the Event / Headline risk on FC (& Greece. The math still seems quite odd…). Hard Periphery (especially Spain) slap-back in the afternoon, though.

"Sea Of Love" (Bunds 1,37% unch; Spain 5,32% +1; Stoxx 2579 +1,3%; EUR 1,298 +50)

• As this has been priced in since September 13, it should come as no surprise to anyone: Fed Stimulus Likely in 2013 (Hilsenrath)
• Bowles Says Fiscal Cliff Deal Unlikely by End of Year (Bloomberg)
• Argentina debt repayment order frozen (FT)
• Obama Is Flexible on Highest Tax Rates (WSJ)... not really
• Geithner deployed for fiscal cliff talks (FT)
• Audit firms Deloitte and KPMG sued in HP's Autonomy acquisition (Reuters)
• Euro-Zone Budget Proposal Is Unveiled (WSJ)
• EU Nations Clash on Thresholds for Direct ECB Oversight (Bloomberg)
• LDP leader Abe: BOJ must ease until inflation hits 3 percent (Reuters)
• SNB’s Jordan Says High Swiss Franc Burdens Many Companies (Bloomberg)
• EU to launch free trade negotiations with Japan: EU officials (Reuters)

Limitless worries. 

Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal is nothing. But then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence, lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet? What is there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something to feed off, something to see!

Broadly speaking, risk markets seemed stuck in tryptophan-mode today but as always it was stocks that used a mediocre volume day to squeeze the odd name here or there. Facebook and Apple were the wunder-kind once again (with the latter now up almost 17% from its swing lows at its 30DMA and a 38.2% retrace of the high-to-low move). The Apple gain moved the Nasdaq into the green (for the sixth day in a row) but the S&P 500 (despite its best efforts into the close) was unable to reach green after overnight weakness. S&P 500 futures did managed to cross into the green (fill the gap) as the day-session closed but Treasury yields were lower all day and signaled considerably less exuberance. FX markets oscillated in ever-decreasing ranges as everyone waits for the next eurogroup bullgasm. Commodities wondered aimlessly with Oil down and Copper up and gold/silver either here nor there. VIX rose modestly to 15.5% by the close as credit markets overall underperformed stocks.