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Frontrunning: October 6

  • Asian shares rise on fading Fed rate views (Reuters)
  • U.S. Equity Futures Fall, Risking S&P 500 Rally as Copper Slides (BBG)
  • More biotech pain, this time from the WSJ: For Prescription Drug Makers, Price Increases Drive Revenue (WSJ)
  • VW Will Delay or Cancel Non-Essential Investments Due to Scandal (BBG)
  • Russia Rejects No-Fly Zone Over Syria as Clerics Urge Reprisals (BBG)
  • Historic Pacific trade deal faces skeptics in U.S. Congress (Reuters)
  • German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Fall Amid Economic Risks (BBG)
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Futures Fail To Surge Despite Continuing Onsalught Of Poor Economic Data

The best headline to summarize what happened in the early part of the overnight session was the following from Bloomberg: "Asian stocks extend global rally on stimulus bets." And following the abysmal data releases from the past three days confirming that the latest centrally-planned attempt to kickstart the global economy has failed, overnight we got even more bad data, first in the form of Australia's trade deficit, and then Germany's factory orders which bombed, and which as Goldman said "seems to reflect genuine weakness in China and emerging markets in general and this will weigh on the German manufacturing sector."

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Peter Schiff: The Fed Has Created A "Bad Is Good" Economy

The popular belief that the U.S. economy has been steadily recovering has endured months of disappointing data without losing much of its appeal. But the downright dismal September jobs report that was released last Friday may prove to be the flashing red beacon that even the most skilled apologists can't explain away. But rather than questioning the Fed's credibility in missing another forecast, most economists are lauding it for supposedly seeing weakness that others missed, which allowed it to wisely do nothing in September. But this is simply a continuation of the Fed's long-standing playbook: Talk the economy up through optimistic statements while continually holding off an actual rate hike that the Fed is concerned could undermine an economy teetering on the brink of recession.

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The US Shale Oil Industry Will Simply Vanish

Without government intervention the “invisible hand” of the world oil market will simply bankrupt US shale companies and with it destroys the US shale oil industry.

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Frontrunning: October 5

  • MOAR: Euro-Area Growth Seen Slowing in Sign More Stimulus May Be Ahead (BBG)
  • MOAR: Japan's wage growth slows in August, keeping pressure on BOJ for more stimulus (Reuters)
  • MOAR: Stocks, Copper, Emerging Markets Jump as Fed Delay on Rates Seen (BBG)
  • And yet... Central Banks Lose Bond-Market Credibility as Woes Mount (BBG)
  • World Bank cuts Asia growth forecast on China and US rates (BBC)
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Global Stocks, Futures Jump On Barrage Of Bad Economic News; Glencore Surges, Volkswagen Slumps

Following Friday's disastrous payrolls report, which confirmed all the pre-recessionary economic data and signaled that instead of approaching "lift-off" and decoupling from the rest of the world, the US economy is following the emerging markets into a slowdown in what may be the first global, synchronized recession since 2008, the market saw its biggest intraday surge since 2011 and the sharpest short covering squeeze in history, we are happy to announce that the "market" is now solidly back in "bad news is good news" mode.

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Silver Spikes To Six-Week Highs On Heavy Volume - Biggest Jump Since Dec 2014

Precious metals are angrily bid this morning (even as copper and crude tumble) after the dismal US jobs data sent the USD reeling and raised expectations for moar QE down the line. Silver is up 5% on the day - the biggest daily jump since Dec 1st 2014 and gold is up 2.2% - its best day since April.

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Calm Before The Payrolls Storm

With China markets closed for holiday until the middle of next week, and little in terms of global macro data overnight (the only notable central banker comment overnight came from Mario Draghi who confidently proclaimed that "economic growth is returning" which on its own is bad for risk assets), it was all about the USDJPY which has seen the usual no-volume levitation overnight, dragging both the Nikkei higher with it, and US equity futures, which as of this moment were at session highs, up 7 points. The calm may be broken, though, as soon as two hours from now when the September "most important ever until the next" payrolls report is released.

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Fourth Quarter Begins With Global Stock Rally As Bad Economic News Is Again Good

Good news! Bad news is again great for stocks, and overnight we had just the right amount of bad news from Japan, China and Europe to send stocks surging on the first day of the final quarter.

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